Super Bowl Opening Kickoff Odds, Predictions 2025: Will New Rules Change Things?

The dynamic kickoff is supposed to promote more returns with fewer explosive collisions. But as we look at the history of opening kickoff touchbacks and prop bets with NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites, it's hard to tell how the changes will impact the game in reality.

For over a half-century, the Super Bowl opening kickoff almost always resulted in a return. We've seen a dramatic shift from that in recent years after yet another early touchback in Super Bowl 58.

Just as he did last year, Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker boomed one into the end zone for a touchback, extending that streak to three consecutive Super Bowls - the longest run in Super Bowl history.

Our Super Bowl predictions expect Butker to return to the Big Game again. But with the new rules, will he connect for another touchback? 

Super Bowl opening kickoff props

Will the opening kickoff result in a touchback?

(Super Bowl opening kickoff odds from our best sportsbooks as of Feb. 11 | 🔥 = best odds | ❄️ = worst odds)

We had seen the opening kickoff result in a touchback just eight times in the 57-year history of the Super Bowl entering Super Bowl 58. However, two of those instances had come in the previous two years, and our best sports betting sites wisely offered "Yes" as a heavy favorite for the 2024 game.

Sure enough, Butker sent it flying through the back of the end zone with ease, cashing "Yes" for the third straight season, and second straight off his foot.

Why did the trend change so dramatically after just four touchbacks in 30 years? It has everything to do with the recent NFL rule changes to the kickoff. But another change to the dynamic kickoff heading into the 2024 NFL season leaves many questions about how many returns and touchbacks will happen as the rule is put into practice.

Which team will receive the opening kickoff?

This bet was essentially the same as betting on the Super Bowl coin toss odds. Both teams received roughly 50% odds to win the wager, but with a slightly worse price.

The Chiefs won the coin toss and elected to defer, which gave the 49ers the ball to open Super Bowl 58. Ironically, San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan later elected to receive the opening kickoff of overtime, which contributed to the 49ers' eventual defeat at the hands of Patrick Mahomes and Co.

Will the opening kickoff be returned for a touchdown?

This has happened only once in Super Bowl history, when Devin Hester returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown in Super Bowl 41 - scoring one of the Chicago Bears' two touchdowns in a blowout loss to the Indianapolis Colts.

The odds were against another such touchdown in Super Bowl 58, as just four of 587 kickoffs (0.68%) were returned for a touchdown during the 2023 NFL regular season. That's for kickoffs in general, let alone a game's first one.

Sure enough, the opening kickoff wasn't even returned, despite the long-shot prices trying to compel bettors to make this wager ahead of Chiefs-49ers:

Using our odds converter, we can calculate the implied probability of that bet as 1.96% at DraftKings— nearly three times the rate of touchdown returns for all kickoffs across the regular season.

It was also slightly higher than the rate of opening kickoff touchdown returns (1.75%) over the previous 57-year history of the Super Bowl. The prices from bet365 and FanDuel are more closely aligned with the reality of the situation, offering a 1.23% and 0.99% implied probability, respectively.

Regardless, this bet didn't cash in 2024, and we aren't holding our breath for 2025, either.

Super Bowl opening kickoff touchback history

Here's a look at some of the most significant historical trends tied to the Super Bowl opening kickoff after the 58th edition of the Big Game:

• A whopping 49 of the 58 Super Bowl opening kickoffs have been returned, including 26 of the last 31. But we've now seen three straight kickoffs result in a touchback, with the change in NFL rules no doubt an influence.
• The only five to result in a touchback over the last three decades were kicked indoors, as was the case with the 2024 Super Bowl.
• All five opening kickoff touchbacks listed above also took place after the 2010 NFL rule change that moved the kickoff spot from the 30-yard line to the 35-yard line.
• No team has ever opened the Super Bowl with an onside kick attempt, though we've seen some notable instances later in the game.

How to read Super Bowl prop odds

Reading Super Bowl opening kickoff odds is straightforward. Odds are usually presented in a format like +500 or -200. Positive odds (e.g., +500) show how much profit you’d make on a $100 bet.

For example, a $100 bet at +500 odds would win you $500, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $600. Negative odds (e.g., -200) indicate how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $200 bet at -200 odds would win you $100, plus your $200 stake, totaling $300.

These odds also reflect the probability of a particular Super Bowl outcome for the opening kickoff. Lower odds (e.g., +300) suggest a higher likelihood, while higher odds (e.g., +2000) indicate a lower probability. Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on stats, news, and betting patterns.

If Yes gets +500 odds and No gets +1000 odds for the opening kickoff to be returned for a touchdown, Yes is considered more likely to be the outcome. If you bet $100 on Yes, and the opening kickoff is returned for a score, you’d get $600 back ($500 profit + $100 stake).

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