Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Player Prop Predictions, Odds: MVP on the Way?
We're highlighting our best Patrick Mahomes player prop predictions based on the NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites as the Kansas City Chiefs QB faces off against the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl.
Even in a down year by the Kansas City Chiefs' standards, Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have the team back in the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the last five seasons - this time against the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV.
While the 49ers are favored by the latest Super Bowl odds, Mahomes is the front-runner by our Super Bowl MVP odds and is poised to slice up a San Francisco 49ers defense that has endured mixed results down the stretch.
As we discussed while ranking Mahomes' Super Bowl appearances, this isn't the best offense that Mahomes has been a part of, but he's arguably playing the best football of his career as he chases Tom Brady's legacy as the greatest of all time.
To accompany our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and other Super Bowl predictions, here are our best Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl player props for 49ers vs. Chiefs (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Patrick Mahomes player props: 2024 Super Bowl
- Patrick Mahomes 3+ passing touchdowns (+240 via FanDuel, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes 5+ rush attempts (-120 via BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes 40+ pass attempts (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
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Patrick Mahomes player prop predictions
Patrick Mahomes 3+ passing touchdowns (+240 via FanDuel, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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While it was a down year for Patrick Mahomes statically — throwing the second-fewest touchdown passes as a starter in his career — he still finished eighth in the NFL in touchdown passes with 27 in 16 games. He only threw three or more touchdown passes in two games this season, but in his 17 career postseason games, he’s done it eight times, including in last year’s Super Bowl win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
Mahomes elevates to another level come postseason football, having thrown 39 touchdown passes to just seven interceptions in his playoff career, and this is also a 49ers defense that’s struggled since Week 16, ranking 18th in EPA per dropback.
Mahomes' stats and efficiency were down overall between poor play from his pass catchers and the Chiefs leaning on a physical run game more than ever before. He finished 10th in EPA per play and 13th in CPOE. However, down the stretch and into the playoffs, Mahomes has played his best ball.
Over his last four games dating back to Week 17, he’s sixth in EPA per play and third in CPOE, which has coincided with the emergence of Rashee Rice as his go-to wide receiver. Ultimately, Mahomes finished third in the NFL in total EPA among QBs during the regular season and is first in the playoffs by a wide margin.
With Mahomes passing touchdowns line set at 1.5 at our best best sports betting sites, we look to alt lines. FanDuel and bet365 have the best value, although Caesars offers Mahomes 3+ touchdown passes at a respectable +210.
If you think Mahomes is set to outpace 49ers QB Brock Purdy, check out our Purdy vs. Mahomes NFL player props.
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Patrick Mahomes 5+ rush attempts (-120 via BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Not necessarily known for his running ability, Mahomes was one of the most efficient scramblers this season. He finished eighth in the NFL in QBR (63.0) but was third behind just Josh Allen and Joshua Dobbs in clutch-weighted expected points added through runs. He’s found the value in tucking and scrambling this season, having finished with a career-high in both rushing yards (389) and rush attempts (75).
During the regular season, Mahomes averaged 4.7 rush attempts per game, and his willingness to scramble has continued into the playoffs. In three postseason games this season, he’s had 14 rush attempts, including six in each of his last two games.
In 17 career playoff games, he’s averaged 4.8 rush attempts per game and has had at least five rush attempts nine times. It’s worth noting that the 49ers saw the eighth most rush attempts by QBs during the regular season, with opposing quarterbacks averaging 5.1 attempts per game.
BetMGM and bet365 offer Mahomes 5+ rush attempts/Over 4.5 rush attempts at -120, that's the best price among our best sports betting apps.
Be sure to check out our full brekdown of this market in our rushing props.
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Patrick Mahomes 40+ pass attempts (+160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Due to the Kansas City Chiefs poor play from its pass catchers this season, Andy Reid morphed his offense to lean more on its ground game than ever before. That led Patrick Mahomes to average a career-low 261.4 passing yards per game this season, but it didn’t stop him from finishing sixth in the NFL in passing yards with 4,183 and third in pass attempts with 597.
Even in a season where the Chiefs put less on Mahomes shoulders, he was still averaging 37.3 pass attempts per game in the regular season and threw at least 40 passes seven times in 16 games. That pass-happy approach has continued into the playoffs, with Mahomes averaging 34.3 attempts per game — and that average is being pulled down by just 23 attempts against the Buffalo Bills. For his postseason career, Reid has not shied away from letting Mahomes rip it, with his franchise quarterback averaging 36.8 pass attempts in 17 playoff games. In those games, he’s thrown at least 40 passes six times.
Just bet365 offers the 40+ pass attempts milestone line. Our other best betting sites have his total pass attempts line at 36.5, with the Over from between -121 to -130. Three more attempts at +160 is too much value to pass up.
We also discuss Mahomes' outlook in the completions market in our passing props.
Super Bowl Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made Friday at 12:15 p.m. ET.
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