Super Bowl Rushing Prop Predictions, Odds: Top Picks for McCaffrey, Pacheco
The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers face off in the 2024 Super Bowl, and we're looking at the best Super Bowl rushing prop predictions based on the NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites.
This year's Big Game features a pair of talented rushers in the San Francisco 49ers' Christian McCaffrey and the Kansas City Chiefs' Isiah Pacheco. But which of them will have the better game in the 2024 Super Bowl?
McCaffrey secured his second All-Pro honor of the season after rushing for 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns and adding 567 yards and seven scores as a receiver. Meanwhile, Pacheco spearheaded his team's backfield with 935 rushing yards while scoring seven of the team's nine rushing touchdowns during the regular season.
With fellow Kansas City running back Jerick McKinnon a mainstay on the latest Super Bowl injury report, will there be an even more significant role carved out for Pacheco in this Super Bowl matchup?
To accompany our Super Bowl odds, Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and other Super Bowl predictions, here are our best Super Bowl Rushing props for Chiefs vs. 49ers (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Super Bowl rushing props
- Christian McCaffrey 100+ rushing yards (+135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Isiah Pacheco is player with the longest rush (+250 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Total players with a rush attempt in the game Over 8.5 (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Super Bowl rushing prop predictions
Christian McCaffrey 100+ rushing yards (+135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Christian McCaffrey has odds as short as -200 at BetRivers to finish the Super Bowl as the player with the most rushing yards, and his projected O/U is a lofty 90.5. Therefore, we're taking advantage of the generous plus-money offering on his alternate rushing total at bet365, as eclipsing the 100-yard mark is not far off from his original number.
McCaffrey has 93-plus rushing yards in six of the previous eight games, and seven of the last 10. He should have a big day against a Chiefs defense that entered the AFC Championship ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in explosive run rate and league's worst stuff rate defense since Week 13.
This is a three-star play, as San Francisco’s game plan against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game proved how committed to the run head coach Kyle Shanahan was.
San Francisco trailed by four-plus points on 68% of snaps in the NFC Championship and by nine or more points on 38% of its plays, according to Fantasy Life’s Dwain McFarland. And despite facing the No. 2 rush defense in the NFL, the 49ers called the second-heaviest ground game of the season with a minus-9% DBOE.
We broke down McCaffrey's rushing outlook further with our Christian McCaffrey NFL player props.
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Isiah Pacheco is player with the longest rush (+250 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
McCaffrey has played 95% of the snaps and toted 71% of the 49ers’ rushing attempts in the playoffs, while Isiah Pacheco has a 75% snap share in the playoffs and accounted for 76% of the Chiefs’ rushing attempts. Thus, which player has the longest rush in the game figures to come down to one of these two bell-cows (the player with the next-closest odds is Patrick Mahomes at +1100), and we are enticed by Pacheco’s inflated +250 odds via DraftKings.
Pacheco has at least one run of 23-plus yards in four of his previous six games, and that should be good enough to cash this wager if he busts another big one on Sunday.
Caesars set the O/U on McCaffrey’s longest rush at 17.5 yards while Pacheco’s O/U is 15.5, so that minimal difference should not have resulted in oddsmakers instilling McCaffrey as the -150 favorite to have the longest rush among all players.
Check out our Isiah Pacheco NFL player props for more on the Chiefs' top back.
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Total players with a rush attempt in the game Over 8.5 (+110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
FanDuel has odds for the total number of players from each team to record a rush attempt, and the latter has the Over of 3.5 for Kansas City juiced to -290, while San Francisco’s Over of 4.5 is at +132.
However, Caesars is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a prop for the number of rush attempts for both teams combined, and given the likelihood that each team cashes its Over, we cannot pass up the +110 odds for nine or more players to have a rushing attempt.
Despite Pacheco securing more than 75% of the team’s rushing attempts in the playoffs, the Chiefs have had four different ball carriers in each of their three playoff games. You assume that Pacheco, Mahomes, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are all locks for at least one carry, and Andy Reid and the coaching staff have gotten creative with opportunities for Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman out of the backfield.
On the 49ers side, McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, Elijah Mitchell, and Deebo Samuel all figure to get a carry, but we may end up cashing this bet with fullback Kyle Juszczyk, who had a short-yardage carry against Detroit, and three catches on three targets out of the backfield in the last Super Bowl matchup between these teams.
Even if Juszczyk does not handle a carry, we would not put it past Reid or Kyle Shanahan to get aggressive and creative with a trick play or fake punt if the game script dictates a momentum change is needed.
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Super Bowl rushing prop picks made Tuesday at 6:24 a.m. ET.
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