We're offering our best Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl player prop predictions based on the NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites as his Kansas City Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl.
Isiah Pacheco has only been with the Kansas City Chiefs for two seasons, but he's already looking for his second Super Bowl title ahead of Sunday's clash with the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl.
Despite playing fewer regular-season games compared to his rookie year, Pacheco has been more efficient as a rusher and receiver in 2024. His predecessor, Damien Williams, ran for a game-high 104 yards and a touchdown when the Chiefs beat the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. Could Pacheco enjoy similar success on Sunday?
To accompany our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and other Super Bowl predictions, here are our best Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl player props for 49ers vs. Chiefs (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
- Isiah Pacheco to score Chiefs' first touchdown (+260 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Isiah Pacheco and Christian McCaffrey to combine for 200+ rush yards (+350 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Isiah Pacheco Under 2.5 receptions (+132 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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Isiah Pacheco player props predictions
Considering that Pacheco has scored either a rushing or receiving touchdown in seven consecutive games (and eight total touchdowns in that span), many bettors will not scoff at his -120 anytime touchdown scorer odds at DraftKings.
However, we are foregoing that wager, as well as his +475 odds to score multiple touchdowns, considering he accomplished that in just one game this season, for the value in the +260 odds at DraftKings that Pacheco will score Kansas City’s first touchdown.
Oddsmakers may be tipping their hand that Pacheco will cross the goal line first, as he has the shortest odds for any Chiefs player, with tight end Travis Kelce right behind him at +285 odds.
Kelce has scored Kansas City’s first touchdown in five of the previous six playoff games, but San Francisco’s rush defense has been vulnerable lately, allowing 106.3 rushing yards per game to running backs over the last three games, compared to 89.7 rushing yards allowed per game in the regular season (third-best in the league).
In addition, no other Chiefs player has had a single carry inside the 5-yard line in the playoffs other than Pacheco, so he should be the primary rushing option if they choose to run instead of pass.
We are not as keen on Pacheco’s +650 odds at DraftKings to be the first touchdown scorer of the game, as the 49ers have found the end zone first in 69% of their games (13 of 19) this season. However, the +260 odds at DraftKings for Pacheco to score first for Kansas City trumps the +240 odds at bet365 for the same wager and is a much better value play than FanDuel's offering of +185 odds for a running back to be the position to score first for the Chiefs.
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Isiah Pacheco and Christian McCaffrey to combine for 200+ rush yards (+350 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
This wager is a little more risky than a standard play on a Pacheco prop, given that bettors would need strong games from two players to cash. But with how often both the Chiefs and 49ers defenses funnel to the run, we expect big games from both players.
The Chiefs (-0.103) and 49ers (-0.036) ranked third and fifth, respectively, in EPA allowed per dropback. Conversely, Kansas City (-0.025) and San Francisco (-0.034) each ranked 27th or worse in EPA allowed per rush.
Neither Pacheco nor McCaffrey has had much competition for backfield touches lately. Pacheco has a 75% snap share and accounted for 76% of Kansas City’s rushing attempts in the playoffs, while McCaffrey has played 95% of San Francisco’s snaps and totaled 71% of its rushing attempts.
McCaffrey in particular knows a thing or two about accruing fantasy points, as Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitz pointed out that he has the most fantasy PPR points per game in NFL history among players who have played a minimum of 50 games.
We're betting this at DraftKings, and it's a more lucrative way to cash in on big days from the running backs, as neither player has better than -110 odds to go over their projected rushing total individually.
If you're a Chiefs fan and want to back Pacheco and one of his teammates to have a big game, be sure to use our exclusive Caesars promo code: SBRBONUS1000 and get boosted odds from +140 to +165 for Pacheco to rush for 60-plus yards and teammate Rashee Rice to record 50-plus receiving yards!
This is one of the few standard player prop wagers for which bettors do not have to resort to alternate lines to turn in a decent payday.
Pacheco finished two of the three playoff games to this point with just one reception, and he has averaged just 1.8 receptions per game since the start of last season. While his passing game usage is up this season with 3.1 receptions per game, he has also been targeted five-plus times in just 43% of games (six of 14).
In addition, Pacheco has been on the field for only 57% of Kansas City’s two-minute drive plays in the postseason, which is a prime opportunity for him to catch short dump-offs from Mahomes.
This is a three-star play, as the return of Jerick McKinnon from IR could limit Pacheco’s passing game usage. McKinnon’s 7.7 yards per reception average was higher than Pacheco’s average of 5.5 in the regular season, and McKinnon totaled just 52 less receiving yards than Pacheco despite playing in two fewer games.
If you're looking for other bets in this market, check out our best receiving props.
Isiah Pacheco player prop picks made Friday at 6:31 a.m. ET.
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