Rams vs. Chiefs Prediction, Picks & Best Bets: NFL Preseason Week 1 Odds

Neither Patrick Mahomes nor reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford will suit up in this game, so my Rams vs. Chiefs prediction sides with Kansas City given its more experienced quarterback group. 

This is our first look at Los Angeles, who is the preseason Super Bowl favorite. But it is telling that Kansas City is a 1.5-point betting favorite. I also add a play on the Over cashing given the respect I have for two of the best offensive-minded head coaches in Sean McVay and Andy Reid. 

Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (NFL Network).

🏈 Rams vs. Chiefs prediction: NFL preseason Week 1

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Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 1.82 units

💰 Rams vs. Chiefs best bet

Chiefs -1.5 (-110)

Many NFL preseason bettors put most of their stock in coaching trends, especially in ATS records, as that shows a glimpse into how head coaches approach such games. In that case, Los Angeles is the right side given Sean McVay’s 15-12 preseason ATS record compared to Andy Reid’s 36-43-1 record.

However, given that the Rams’ primary two signal callers will be Stetson Bennett and Ty Simpson compared to the Chiefs’ Justin Fields and Chris Oladokun, I will side with Kansas City’s two signal callers that have combined for 55 regular season starts (and 63 games played) compared to L.A.’s zero.

Score prediction: Chiefs 23, Rams 17

🚀 Rams vs. Chiefs same-game parlay

Even though I like Kansas City to cover, I am also backing the Over as a second leg to this same-game parlay, as I expect Los Angeles to do its part in scoring. Stetson Bennett hasn’t yet appeared in a regular season game since being drafted in 2023, but he did finish last preseason with a 69% completion percentage, 5:2 TD:INT ratio, and a 105.7 passer rating.

We’re getting a lower number than we likely would for this matchup being the first preseason game, but this was still too good to pass up.

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💡 How I'm betting Rams vs. Chiefs: NFL preseason strategy

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In the absence of player props for this preseason matchup, I am focused on the more traditional ATS and O/U wagers. While Sean McVay has a top four cover percentage in the preseason, I expect Andy Reid will have his team ready to go for this home matchup after missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014.

I’m also bucking another trend that saw short road underdogs (+2.5 or smaller) cover 66% of the last 113 preseason games entering this year (75-38 ATS). This has everything to do with the Chiefs getting significantly more snaps from quarterbacks who have proven regular season NFL experience.

📊 Rams vs. Chiefs odds: NFL preseason Week 1

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🚑 Rams vs. Chiefs latest injuries

🌤️ Rams vs. Chiefs weather: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET

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It will be a steamy 100 degrees in Kansas City at kickoff, but light southwest winds at 9 mph should have little impact on the Rams vs. Chiefs game on Sunday.

📺 How to watch Rams vs. Chiefs: NFL preseason Week 1

• Date: Saturday, August 15
• Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET
• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
• TV: NFL Network
• Streaming: YouTube TV