MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Saturday, August 15
The Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in a potential NLCS preview, and All-Star Justin Wrobleski’s struggles of keeping the ball in the yard of late have me backing a Brewers slugger as a focal point of my home run predictions today.
Jackson Chourio isn’t the only NL Central slugger I expect to go deep, as Cubs first baseman Michael Busch has had great career success against today’s opposing starting pitcher. With the last of my MLB home run picks, I back one of the sport’s active home run leaders in Pete Alonso, and go the other way on a youngster in Griffin Conine who is amid a breakout season.
All of this looks to build off of yesterday’s profitable day after nailing two of four home run plays.
Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds August 15
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Griffin Conine to hit a home run (+426 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.07u | Conine entered yesterday with the third-highest post-All-Star Break OPS |
| Michael Busch to hit a home run (+531 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.33u | Busch has a 1.500 OPS in 10 career at-bats against Michael McGreevy |
| Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+359 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.9u | Alonso entered yesterday slugging .909 with three home runs in his last 22 at-bats |
| Jackson Chourio to hit a home run (+375 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.94u | Chourio is one of seven players with four-plus homers since August 4 |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 4.24 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Griffin Conine (+426)
Entering this weekend, only Triple Crown threat Yordan Alvarez and Padres slugger Jackson Merrill had a higher OPS since the All-Star Break than Griffin Conine’s 1.024. And on Wednesday when he belted his 13th home run, Conine became the second Marlins player ever with at least six total bases and three walks in a game.
Conine is 2-for-2 with a home run off of Reds righty Brady Singer. Singer has been torched by left-handed batters, who have combined for 16 of his 22 home runs allowed, and a .848 OPS. Comparatively, Singer has allowed a .707 OPS to righties.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Stuff+ struggles
Brady Singer has the fourth-worst Pitching+ and 16th-worst Stuff+ grades among all 86 pitchers who have thrown at least 110 innings this season.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Michael Busch (+531)
Michael Busch has logged a 1.500 OPS in 10 career at-bats against Michael McGreevy, as three of his four hits have gone for extra bases (including two home runs). McGreevy has a 6.29 ERA since the All-Star Break, and was always a prime candidate for regression given his 90 proStuff+ grade and 5.69 xERA that’s more than a full two runs worse than his actual ERA.
McGreevy’s xSLG on his three primary pitches (four-seamer, changeup, and sinker) are 135, 94, and 46 points worse, respectively, than his actual slugging percentage on such pitches. Meanwhile, Busch is a prime candidate to go deep for the second time in August after batting .288 with a .724 OPS this month.
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+359)
Pete Alonso has homered in back-to-back series, including his first multi-homer game of the season last Sunday. He is now four home runs shy of his fifth straight 30-home run season and seventh of his career.
Alonso ranks in the top five in fWAR among first basemen since the start of 2025. Though he has just a two at-bat sample size against Ian Seymour, the Rays southpaw has seen his home runs allowed increase for the fourth straight month. He has allowed just one homer through two August starts, but that is due to regress given his seventh percentile ground ball rate and 15th percentile barrel rate.
- Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Jackson Chourio (+375)
Dodgers southpaw Justin Wrobleski has looked far from an All-Star of late. In his last three starts, he has allowed nine home runs and pitched to a 9.88 ERA. He now has the fifth-worst ERA among qualified starters since the All-Star Break, which is why I’m confidently backing Jackson Chourio to go deep even though the Brewers have hit the fewest home runs in the Majors.
Chourio had a 25-game home run drought from July 5-August 3. Since then, he was one of seven players with four-plus home runs entering the weekend, and ranked 19th among all sluggers in ISO. Chourio also tied for the tenth-highest hard-hit rate in that span, while his fly-ball rate was fourth-highest among those in the top 10.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FOX
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
Griffin Conine to hit a home run (+426)Michael Busch to hit a home run (+531)Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+359)Jackson Chourio to hit a home run (+321)Best odds: +64037 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 64.0u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 226-362-1 | +47.85 units ✅ | +12.9% ✅ |
| Game picks | 88-68-1 | +13.04 units ✅ | +7.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 138-294 | +34.81 units ✅ | +16.4% ✅ |
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