Red Sox vs. Pirates Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, Aug. 15

Sonny Gray looks to set a personal single-season record for wins today in a road start against Pittsburgh, and my Red Sox vs. Pirates prediction backs Boston as a -115 betting favorite.

My MLB picks also find value in Gray recording the win and Adley Rutschman going deep for his first home run with the Red Sox off Jared Jones. First pitch from PNC Park in Pittsburgh is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX).

⚾ Red Sox vs. Pirates picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.52 units

🏆 Who will win Red Sox vs. Pirates?

While Pittsburgh is a respectable nine games over .500 in interleague matchups, it also is an NL Central-worst 10 games under .500 against teams with a winning record.

Score prediction: Red Sox 5, Pirates 3

💰 Red Sox vs. Pirates prediction & best bet

Red Sox ML (-115)

Boston has cooled down losing back-to-back series. But that still followed a 27-3 record in its previous 30 games, making it just the seventh team ever to win 27-plus games over a 30-game stretch. That is especially true when its latest opponent, the Blue Jays, have had its number winning nine of the 13 head-to-head matchups.

Pittsburgh’s expected win-loss record is five games better than its actual record thanks to a plus-29 run differential (it’s the only last place team with a positive run differential). But it is also 0-4 in Jones’ last four starts while scoring five total runs.

🔥 Best Red Sox vs. Pirates player prop bet

Sonny Gray to record the win (+145)

Boston has won 16 of Gray’s 22 starts, as the righty is 14-3 with a 2.79 ERA, and ranked 26th in WHIP. He has already tied his single-season high for wins, as he finished with 14 wins three times (in 2014 and 2015 with the Athletics, and last year with the Cardinals).

In the Red Sox’s only two losses in a Gray start since June 19, they scored one total run. Otherwise in that span, they covered the run line on five different occasions, with Gray earning the win in six of those nine outings.

Run support shouldn’t be an issue against Jones, who has pitched to a 9.69 ERA over his last three starts. That includes a blow-up start against the Mets in his last outing where he allowed eight runs to a team that ranks 22nd in runs scored and has the NL’s second-worst batting average. 

💣 Red Sox vs. Pirates home run prediction

Adley Rutschman to hit a home run (+480)

Adley Rutschman made his Red Sox debut last week, and promptly reached base three times. I expect him to hit his ninth homer, and his first with Boston.

Jared Jones briefly looked dominant over a four-start stretch where he pitched to a 1.29 ERA, 0.52 WHIP, and a 7:1 K:BB ratio. Since then, Jones has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard, with at least one homer allowed in four straight outings.

Rutschman has a .500 or better slugging percentage or xSLG against three of the four primary pitches he has seen. That includes four-seam fastballs, which opposing hitters have an xSLG of .482 against Jones, and is the pitch responsible for six of his 10 homers allowed. 

🚀 Red Sox vs. Pirates same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay pair nicely in helping the Red Sox win outright. One way or another, Gray has earned a decision in 14 of his last 17 starts, with 12 wins in that span. And while sticking with my Rutschman home run play would add great value as a third leg of this SGP, I am going the safer route and expecting him to hit safely off of Jones, who has pitched to a 5.82 home ERA, 1.86 runs worse than his road ERA.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Red Sox vs. Pirates: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I would not put anyone off backing Boston’s run line odds (+140 at BetMGM and Caesars are the best price) given its historic late season turnaround. But once I saw its moneyline odds close to a pick’em (carrying a 53.49% implied probability), I ditched the run line bet for a safer wager. However, the Red Sox covered the run line in 28 of their previous 45 games entering this series, while profiting bettors 15.4 units and a 28% ROI.

From a home run perspective, I definitely wanted to back a Red Sox slugger to go yard, considering that Jones’ 1.53 HR/9 rate is by far the worst of any Pirates pitcher (min. 50 IP).

📊 Live Red Sox vs. Pirates odds

📈 Red Sox vs. Pirates betting trends

🚑 Red Sox vs. Pirates injuries

📺 How to watch Red Sox vs. Pirates

• Date: Saturday, Aug. 15
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: PNC Park (Pittsburgh)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Red Sox starter: Sonny Gray (14-3, 2.79 ERA)
• Pirates starter: Jared Jones (2-4, 5.03 ERA)