The 2024 Super Bowl is at hand with the 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff approaching, and we're making our best Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction on game day while looking at the NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites.
The San Francisco 49ers have held fairly steady as 2-point favorites by the Super Bowl odds as the official road team of the 2024 Super Bowl against the Kansas City Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
This is, of course, a rematch of Super Bowl, which the Chiefs won in 2020. They also beat the Philadelphia Eagles in 2023 as a Super Bowl underdog and now look for the third Super Bowl title in five years (they also lost a championship game in that span).
Let's dive into our best Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction for the 2024 Super Bowl with odds from our best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl prediction
Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 completions ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +104 via FanDuel
The more I study this matchup leading up to kickoff, the stronger sense I get that Mahomes and Co. will attack this 49ers defense very similarly to how they picked apart the Baltimore Ravens' elite unit in the AFC Championship. That leads me to target this player prop above any other entering Sunday.
The signal-caller completed 30 of his 39 attempts in that game. He also posted his fifth-lowest yards per attempt (6.18) of the season while Mahomes feasted on quick passes and underneath routes against the Ravens' dropback zone coverage, which is predicated on preventing explosive plays downfield.
That's exactly how the 49ers' defense excels too. San Francisco uses zone coverage at the NFL's fourth-highest rate (63%), and it's allowed the fifth-most completions per game (24) while surrendering the fourth-lowest yards per catch (6.2). The Niners won't be able to live in single-high zone forever against Mahomes, but I don't expect them to suddenly abandon their defensive identity on the NFL's grandest stage, either.
Much has been made about the 49ers' vulnerabilities against the rush, but that's mostly on outside runs, which aren't a strength of this Kansas City offense. Don't be surprised if we see Andy Reid and Mahomes use quick passing as an extension of the run game and attack the edge with wide receiver runs - which, in this offense, often means shovel passes or jet sweeps that double as completions.
The latest Super Bowl injury report also casts doubt on the availability of All-Pro guard Joe Thuney, which is significant for the Chiefs' interior pass protection. Mahomes is the league's best at avoiding sacks in the face of pressure, and I'd expect him to get the ball out quickly and efficiently to avoid a repeat of his disastrous Super Bowl LV against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
As we laid out when ranking Mahomes' Super Bowl appearances, he still finished with 26 completions in that game, just as the signal-caller did against the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. The 2023-24 team is even more reliant on quick screens and yards after the catch, and I hold full faith that Reid will trust his QB to be the ultimate facilitator in his fourth Super Bowl start.
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Shortest TD Under 1.5 yards ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -140 via DraftKings
This is my favorite Super Bowl bet every year, and we're getting ridiculously generous odds for a prop that's cashed in seven of the last eight seasons.
I broke down the logic for this bet in detail in our Super Bowl expert picks, so I won't get too into the weeds here. Just know that the implied probability for this bet (58.3%) is well below what you'd expect for a prop that's cashed 70% of the time over the last three decades of Super Bowl betting history - including each of the Chiefs' three title appearances.
These teams combined for three goal-line scores during Super Bowl LIV. The Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles each scored a one-yard touchdown in 2023, extending the winning streak for this Super Bowl prop to four years. I'd be shocked if it ends here.
If you're interested in other profitable trends over the years, check out our breakdown of the best Super Bowl trends.
Chiefs +2.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel
While the rest of our best sports betting sites continue to offer Chiefs +2, FanDuel remains the lone sportsbook hanging +2.5 on the defending champions. That extra half-point is a mere bonus for the team that I expect to win outright.
The matchup between Mahomes and the 49ers' defense - which I explained more above - is one reason I like Kansas City's chances to repeat. The other is this team's top-tier defense, which suffocated NFL MVP winner Lamar Jackson two weeks ago and should make life miserable for Brock Purdy during his Super Bowl debut.
I get why the 49ers are favored when you look at the regular-season stats for these two teams. That doesn't capture the full picture, as the Chiefs have fully realized the best version of this roster at the perfect time. That should no longer surprise anyone, as Reid and Mahomes have pulled off this same magic act before.
Over 47.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM
I've been wavering on this bet as the week progresses, as I'm not sure this game will be the back-and-forth affair many predict. However, I can't shake the feeling that these defenses don't have a perfect answer for the strength of the other side.
The Chiefs will find success in the short passing game and attacking the edge against this Niners front, even if it's not through conventional outside runs. That approach could end up bleeding more clock than Over bettors would like, but Kansas City shouldn't lack for scoring potential on Sunday.
The same is true for the 49ers, even if I'm down on their quarterback overall, just like our Mike Spector in his Brock Purdy Super Bowl player props. That's a testament to the death star that Kyle Shanahan has built with MVP finalist Christian McCaffrey at the center of it all. Our Super Bowl rushing props predictions expect a big game from CMC, which would likely spell a successful day for this offense overall.
These teams have combined for 50-plus points in all three meetings during the Mahomes era, and while the Chiefs' offense was better in previous years, this 49ers offense is among the best we've ever seen. I don't think it'll be enough to swing the game in their favor, but the score should clear a fairly modest total.
Brock Purdy Over 0.5 interceptions ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -130 via bet365
This is one of the most popular passing props of Super Bowl 58, and we've seen these odds shrink to as short as -140 across our best sports betting apps. We liked this a lot more at the -115 odds we recommended earlier this week, but it's still worth a (smaller) play at this price.
Purdy had been skirting disaster for much of this season, throwing just 11 interceptions during the campaign despite finishing with 18 turnover-worthy plays. He's thrown multiple interceptable passes in both playoff starts during 2024, and Purdy was finally punished for one last week in the NFC Championship.
He's also struggled under duress this season, ranking in the bottom five in interceptions thrown (seven) and turnover-worthy play rate (5.5%) when pressured among QBs with at least 500 dropbacks. The Chiefs ranked second in pressure rate (27.8%) in the regular season, and I'd expect defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to make life miserable for the second-year passer on Sunday.
For more on the 49ers' QB, check out our Brock Purdy NFL player props.
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Best Super Bowl odds
Looking back at Mahomes' completions total - which is my favorite player prop of the Super Bowl - three of our best sportsbooks are dealing the Over at minus-odds, while only FanDuel is offering it at true plus-money odds.
That's clearly where I'd recommend placing this bet, though with so many compelling bonus offers available for the Super Bowl, your choice may vary. I'd highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos and Super Bowl odds boosts to maximize this wager (and any others) for Super Bowl 58.
Chiefs vs. 49ers odds
Chiefs vs. 49ers odds analysis
The 49ers opened at -2.5 over the Chiefs shortly after this Super Bowl 58 matchup was set. The early action came in on the defending champions, who were dealing as short as +1 across our best Super Bowl betting sites within an hour of the NFC Championship ending.
Then came the buyback on the Niners, who are now sitting at -2 through four of our five best sportsbooks, with the Chiefs catching 2.5 points at FanDuel. It doesn't look like we'll get to +3 before kickoff. So if you like Kansas City as we do, now is as good of a time as any to strike.
The betting total experienced some early movement after the AFC and NFC Championship games ended, but it's now dealing at a consensus 47.5 across the board. We briefly saw that drop to 47, which was the lookahead line for this matchup. But it seems like the total has settled in the days ahead of Super Bowl 58.
Super Bowl game info
- When: Sunday, Feb. 11 at 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: Indoors
Chiefs-49ers prediction made Friday at 2:30 p.m. ET.
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