Entering Week 13, the Kansas City Chiefs (8-3) are part of a trio of teams trailing the Baltimore Ravens (9-3) by half a game for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
On the other side, the Green Bay Packers aim to level their win-loss record at .500, chasing the Minnesota Vikings (6-6) and Seattle Seahawks (6-6) by half a game for the last NFC playoff spot.
As 8.5-point underdogs, the Packers stunned the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, marking the third-largest upset on Thanksgiving since 1970.
In addition to our Chiefs vs. Packers NFL player props and Chiefs-Packers parlay, here is our best Chiefs vs. Packers prediction for Sunday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs vs. Packers prediction: Sunday Night Football
Under 42.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
There have not been many more profitable trends this season than backing the Unders in primetime games. After Week 12, the Under is 10-3 in Sunday Night Football games this season and 19-3 in the previous 22 primetime games overall and has cashed in every game since the Monday Night Football matchup in Week 5. This trend goes back to Week 13 of last season, as the Under has gone 41-12 in all primetime games since then.
This is not a blind wager on the Under at any of our best sportsbooks based on trends, as plenty of factors point to a low-scoring game between these teams.
For starters, Kansas City’s passing game is not as explosive as we have known it to be under Mahomes, as the previous season-high in receiving yards for a Chiefs wide receiver was 84 by Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Week 7 before Rashee Rice totaled 107 yards last week.
Before that, the Chiefs had gone 20 consecutive games without a wide receiver having 100-plus receiving yards. That is a big reason why Mahomes entered last week on pace for career-lows in yards per pass attempt, yards per completion, and touchdown rate, while his 2.4% interception rate was a career-high, per Sharp Football Analysis.
Green Bay’s offensive ceiling is also lowered facing a Chiefs team that is the only one in the NFL to allow 24 or fewer points in every game this season.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love has momentum coming off his third career game with three passing touchdowns. All those touchdowns last week came against man coverage, and Love now has a 15-0 TD-INT ratio against man coverage this season.
However, entering Week 12, Kansas City played man coverage just 32% of the time, and we expect it to use it even less, given Love’s success against man coverage.
This is a four-star play at our best sportsbooks as the Chiefs also entered last week tied for the second-fewest yards per attempt allowed (6.1), ranked fourth in defensive DVOA, and had the best third-down defense, allowing opponents fewer than three yards per third down play.
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Chiefs vs. Packers best odds
As Under backers, we do not mind paying up slightly at FanDuel for an extra half-point, especially since DraftKings charges more than the standard -110 price to back the Under on a lower total. There are also some interesting in-game trends regarding the Chiefs that bettors should be privy to and possibly take advantage of at our best sports betting apps: Kansas City entered last week’s game against the Raiders 10-0 to the second half Under and 10-0 to the fourth quarter Under.
Chiefs vs. Packers odds for Sunday Night Football
Chiefs vs. Packers odds analysis
Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 all experienced similar line movement on their totals, initially rising either a half-or-full-point from their opening numbers before being bet back down to their original numbers.
Whatever action there is on the Under is likely considering sharp action to drive the number back down, as 77% of the early wagers have been placed on the Over. The Under is 6-1 in Kansas City’s previous seven games. Get the best price on the Under bet by using our FanDuel promo code.
Our best sports betting apps are in unison with Kansas City as 6.5-point favorites, though FanDuel only charges more than the standard vig (-118) to back the Chiefs. FanDuel got to -6.5 from an opening line of -7, and DraftKings and BetMGM also hit -7 at some points this week before Packers supporters drove the line down a half-point.
It would not be surprising to see the spread get back to -7 at most of our best sports betting apps at some point, considering the early wagers are 3/1 in favor of the Chiefs. Green Bay has won four of its last five games as home underdogs outright.
Chiefs vs. Packers bonus codes
Sunday Night Football game info
- When: Sunday, Dec. 3 at 8:20 p.m. ET
- Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: 39 degrees, 39% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph S
Chiefs-Packers prediction made Tuesday at 4:22 p.m. ET
NFL betting odds pages
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