Patrick Mahomes NFL Player Props, Odds Week 13: Predictions for Chiefs vs. Packers
Our Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions are based on the best NFL odds as the Kansas City Chiefs visit the Green Bay Packers for Sunday Night Football.
Last week, the Kansas City Chiefs successfully managed the Las Vegas Raiders, with Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes delivering an impressive passing performance.
The looming question now is whether Mahomes can maintain his momentum and efficiency against the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night at Lambeau Field. It's anticipated that his mobility might become a significant factor in this matchup.
We've made our Chiefs vs. Packers predictions and our Chiefs-Packers NFL player props, as we offer our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for the Chiefs vs. Packers Week 13 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
See our Jordan Love NFL player props and Travis Kelce player props for more action on SNF.
Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for Week 13
- Patrick Mahomes Over 259.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Patrick Mahomes player props
Mahomes Over 259.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
The Packers boast a top-10 secondary, allowing only 205.1 passing yards per game to their opponents, but the Chiefs could pierce the unit on Sunday night if they can carry over some of their success from last week in Las Vegas.
Although that game was played in a dome, we finally saw the true emergence of a secondary option to see significant receiving volume as Rashee Rice saw double-digit targets from Mahomes. If Rice and Travis Kelce can serve as a pair of reliable pass-catchers, we should see Mahomes clear a passing line that he has hit in six of 11 games this season.
Most of our best sportsbooks list the Mahomes' passing yards total at 262.5 yards, so we get a small edge by playing this prop at FanDuel. They list the prop at 259.5 passing yards, and we have no problem with the reasonable -114 odds on Over.
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Mahomes Under 0.5 interceptions (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
We’re not as comfortable with this one because it’s clear that Mahomes will have some opportunities to contribute touchdowns in a game where double digits favor the Chiefs. But from a value standpoint, the Under is still an attractive option due to the plus-money odds and the run-heavy script that we project from the Chiefs.
Mahomes has thrown at least one interception in seven of 11 games this season, but he’s managed to stay clean in two of his past three contests. That includes last week against the Raiders, as Mahomes helped orchestrate a comeback effort following a slow start.
Although this game is in the elements at Lambeau, Mahomes also benefits from facing a Packer defense that has intercepted only five passes all year, tied for second-fewest in the NFL. Most of our NFL prop betting sites set the odds on Under 0.5 Mahomes interceptions between -120 and -123, but we gain a small edge at bet365 with their -115 odds on the prop.
Mahomes Over 21.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Mahomes is certainly a passer, first and foremost. Still, his athletic ability to extend plays frequently leads to short-yardage scampers turning into more if the defense allows him the space to operate. We’ve seen Mahomes clear this rushing line in eight of 11 games this season.
Although he failed to do so last week against the Raiders, I actually consider the recency of that nine-yard rushing performance helpful to keep this rushing line down. Only twice this season has Mahomes failed to reach 20 or more rushing yards--both instances came in a dome stadium.
Aside from the Chiefs’ clunker in Denver in late October, in which he ran for only 20 yards, Mahomes has posted a rushing line of 28 or more yards in every outdoor game he’s played. Weather being a factor seems to cause Mahomes to consider the run more strongly, which bodes well for this rushing line. The best odds on Over 21.5 yards come from bet365 at -110.
Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made 11/25/2023 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
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