Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has faced challenges without consistent offensive options, impacting tight end Travis Kelce's performance. In the previous game, Kelce managed six receptions for 91 yards, marking the end of a streak where he struggled to surpass 60 receiving yards over three consecutive games.
This season, Kelce has achieved just two 100-yard receiving games, with the last one dating back to Week 6. Now, facing the ninth-ranked pass defense in the NFL, there's anticipation around how Kelce will perform on Sunday night.
In conjunction with our Chiefs vs. Packers predictions and Chiefs-Packers NFL player props, here are our best Travis Kelce NFL player prop predictions for the Week 13 Sunday Night Football matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence-based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Travis Kelce NFL player prop predictions for Week 13
- Travis Kelce Under 70.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
- Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
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Travis Kelce player props
Travis Kelce Under 70.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Throughout this season, opposing teams have dared the Chiefs to beat them with anyone other than Kelce. Because of that, Kelce’s production has dropped from last year, and he’s averaging just 73.2 yards per game. This week, the Packers should take a similar approach, and we expect them to have success.
The Packers are allowing just 205.1 passing yards per game. They’re in the middle of the NFL in yards allowed to tight ends, surrendering 538 this season. Kelce has needed favorable matchups to have success this season. This is not one of those matchups.
Each of our best sports betting apps, except for FanDuel, has this total listed at 70.5. FanDuel has a total of 69.5, but they’re asking -114 for the under. Kelce has only gone for 70 yards three times this season, but there’s always the possibility he has a massive game, which is why this is just a three-star play at our best sportsbooks.
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Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
Though Kelce has struggled to produce receiving yards, he has had at least six catches in eight of his 10 games. While six is the magic number for him, FanDuel is offering the best price for him to have at least that many catches, and they’re asking -188.
Kelce has been targeted at least eight times in eight of his 10 games this year. He’s caught at least seven passes in five of those games. The Chiefs will try to get Kelce involved, even if that means throwing him short passes or designing screens for him. Those types of plays haven’t gone for many yards this season, but they help him compile catches quickly. With a high floor, the over is the play this week.
DraftKings and BetMGM are each offering -110 for over 6.5 receptions. Every other of our best sportsbooks asking at least -115 for the over. This is far from a guarantee, so don’t play this for -120 or worse if that’s the best price you see when you are ready to wager.
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
Kelce has scored one touchdown in five of his 10 games this season. He’s yet to record a multi-touchdown game. Four of his five touchdowns were scored against teams in the bottom eighth pass defenses in the league.
While the Packers are a top-10 pass defense, they have allowed four tight end touchdowns this season. That’s tied for the 11th-worst in the league. Kelce is always a threat in the red zone, and in a game where he may struggle in the middle of the field, we expect Mahomes to go to him more in scoring situations.
DraftKings is alone among our best sports betting apps, offering this prop as low as +100. While others are offering -105, Caesars has the price listed at -133. That’s way too expensive, considering what Kelce has done this season. If you can’t get this for under -110 at one of our best sportsbooks, then it’s not worth playing.
Travis Kelce player prop picks made 12/2/2023 at 9:51 a.m. ET.
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