Our NFL best bets for Thursday Night Football round up all of our experts' top predictions as the New York Giants visit the San Francisco 49ers and we look to get the best of our best NFL betting sites.
Our best sports betting apps, and the betting public, are expecting a lopsided matchup to kick off the NFL's Week 3 as the San Francisco 49ers host the New York Giants as 10.5-point favorites on Thursday Night Football
To help you start your NFL predictions for Week 3 on the right foot, here are our NFL best bets and NFL picks for Thursday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL best bets for Thursday Night Football: Giants vs. 49ers
- 49ers -9.5 (-110 via FanDuel, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Darius Slayton & Isaiah Hodgins each Over 39.5 receiving yards (+425 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Christian McCaffrey Over 79.5 rushing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Brock Purdy longest completion Under 35.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Giants vs. 49ers anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Kyle Juszczyk, 49ers, FB (+1100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
- Daniel Jones Over 20.5 pass completions (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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NFL predictions for Thursday Night Football
49ers -9.5 (-110 via FanDuel, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
The Giants registered a plus-40.1 offensive EPA, averaged 5.4 yards per play, and 4.7 yards per rush with running back Saquon Barkley healthy and active over the last five seasons entering 2023-24. Without Barkley, those numbers plummet to a minus-126.9 offensive EPA, 5.0 yards per play, and 4.2 yards per rush.
Giants QB Daniel Jones made history during the second half against the Arizona Cardinals, however, it's unreasonable to think the team can put that much on his shoulders again with a one-dimensional offense and expect to compete against a team as explosive as the 49ers. Niners running back Christian McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in 11 straight games (including playoffs), and while QB Brock Purdy's streak of six consecutive outings with two-plus passing touchdowns and a 95.0 or better passer rating was snapped in Week 2, he still posted an impressive 93.1 passer rating and played turnover-free football.
It's only a matter of how much San Francisco will win by Thursday. We're comfortable laying less than double digits against a banged-up Giants team.
Giants vs. 49ers prediction made by Mike Spector
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Darius Slayton & Isaiah Hodgins each Over 39.5 receiving yards (+425 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Giants QB Daniel Jones threw for just 104 yards in his season debut and no pass catcher exceeded 36 receiving yards in that game. However, last week, the Giants offense rebounded, with Jones amassing 321 yards through the air. Four New York pass-catchers surpassed this yardage mark, including receivers Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins.
Hodgins crossed this threshold in five of 10 games last season, including three of his last five. The young wideout managed 40 receiving yards against the Cardinals. On the other hand, Slayton exceeded this mark in eight of 10 games in 2022, and accumulated 62 yards in the game against Arizona.
San Francisco has allowed at least two receivers to gain more than 40 yards in both of their games this season, with three players achieving this feat against the 49ers' secondary last week.
Giants vs. 49ers player props made by Rod Villagomez
Christian McCaffrey Over 79.5 rushing yards (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
What is preventing McCaffrey from achieving his third consecutive 100-yard rushing game to start the season? Last week, the Giants yielded 106 yards to James Conner, who maintained an average of more than four yards per carry against them.
McCaffrey, who played every snap in Week 2, is expected to see a similar workload on Thursday. Furthermore, the 49ers are likely to maintain a lead throughout the entire game. This might raise concerns for some, as they believe that if the 49ers establish a significant lead, McCaffrey may be substituted.
When the 49ers secure a lead, it will primarily be due to McCaffrey's performance. It's advisable to place this wager, but also consider the option of betting on him to surpass the 100-yard rushing mark, which is offered at +200 on DraftKings.
Christian McCaffrey player props made by Phil Wood
Brock Purdy longest completion Under 35.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In his first two games, Purdy completed 36 passes, with the longest being his 31-yard connection with Jauan Jennings in Week 2 against the Los Angeles Rams. His second-longest pass was a 23-yard completion to Brandon Aiyuk in Week 1. Throughout his career, Purdy has completed only three regular-season passes that exceeded this distance.
In 2023, New York has yielded just one catch for 34-plus yards. This occurred when Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb caught a 20-yard pass from Prescott and then gained an additional 29 yards in Week 1. Comparatively, in 2022, the Giants allowed an average of 10.9 yards per completion while giving up only three passes of at least 36 yards.
Brock Purdy player props made by Rod Villagomez
Giants vs. 49ers anytime touchdown scorer prediction: Kyle Juszczyk, 49ers, FB (+1100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
In Week 2, fullback Kyle Juszczyk was the only non-McCaffrey 49ers back to see playing time, featuring in 62% of the offensive snaps. Although he hasn't carried the ball yet in 2023, Juszczyk consistently scored at least two touchdowns in each of the past three seasons with San Francisco, including a high of six in 2020. He received 20-plus targets in each of the previous nine campaigns, showcasing his versatility, which could prove valuable near the goal line in a game many anticipate as a virtual bye for San Francisco. DraftKings offers attractive +1100 odds, with Caesars offering a market-low of +700.
Giants vs. 49ers anytime touchdown scorer prediction made by Esten McLaren
Daniel Jones Over 20.5 pass completions (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Jones is projected to complete 21.1 passes against the 49ers, which, although slightly surpassing the total of 20.5 pass completions, presents an advantage due to favorable odds. Based on this projection, we can place Jones at -110 to complete more than 20.5 passes, offering an edge over the +105 price offered by DraftKings.
If the +105 bet at DraftKings is unavailable, it's worth considering the Over 19.5 (-130) option at BetRivers, despite the higher juice, as it holds a higher expected value compared to, for instance, taking the Over 20.5 (-102) at FanDuel.
NFL player props for Week 3 made by Jon Metler
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