NFL Player Props Week 3: Predictions, Picks for Monday
Sportsbook Review's betting analysts, Jon Metler and Neil Parker, choose their top Week 3 NFL player props rooted in the NFL odds from our best NFL prop betting sites. After a difficult second week, they look to get back on track.
We looked a lot like the Las Vegas Raiders did in Week 2. Just like the Raiders, we didn’t get shut out completely, but it was a definite beat down.
The good news is that everyone loves a comeback story. Just because the numbers didn't go our way in Week 2 - just ask Neil Parker, who was hooked on his Tua Tagovailoa and Rhamondre Stevenson bets - it doesn't mean that won't change in Week 3.
We started Week 3 with four straight wins and are looking to complete a sweep of the board with our fifth and final pick for Monday Night Football.
Here are our best NFL player props for Week 3 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 3
- Mike Evans Over 4.5 receptions (+120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Mike Williams Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Kyle Pitts Over 33.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Jared Goff Under 271.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐ ✅
- Daniel Jones Over 20.5 pass completions (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅
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NFL player props for Week 3: Monday
Mike Evans Over 4.5 receptions (+120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
One of the surprises of this NFL season has been how well Baker Mayfield has been playing for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and his immediate chemistry with wide receiver Mike Evans. In their first two games together, Evans has amassed 237 receiving yards on 12 receptions out of 18 targets.
I believe the general perception for Evans on Monday Night Football may lean toward fading him due to his matchup with Philadelphia Eagles defensive back Darius Slay. However, I really like the odds we're getting here for Evans.
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While one might expect the market to shift toward Chris Godwin, it's actually Evans who has been steaming at Pinnacle, with his +130 odds for Over 4.5 receptions being adjusted to -103. Fortunately for us, we can take advantage of this information from the market with very little penalty, as BetMGM still offers +120 odds.
Evans is projected to have 4.9 receptions against the Eagles, which allows us to price the Over 4.5 receptions at -118. Yet, we can buy it at +120 via BetMGM. This means that this bet shows a positive expected value of 19%.
The best price for this prop is available at BetMGM and BetRivers, both offering the Over 4.5 receptions at +120. FanDuel is right behind them at +114, and although these six cents may not seem like a significant difference, betting the +114 on FanDuel would reduce your expected value to 16%.
Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)
NFL player props for Week 3: Sunday
Mike Williams Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅
If you're looking for Overs on player props in Week 3, I encourage you to take a look at the matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. On the lookahead line, this total was trading at 49.5, and we have since seen it climb by 4.5 points all the way to 54 at bet365. There's a strong sentiment that we will see a lot of offense in this game, so the question is, which player props are showing an edge?
The trio of Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams immediately become the players you want to focus on when a total climbs from 49.5 to 54. But when it comes to their yardage props, the biggest edge is on Williams.
Williams is projected to have 72.4 receiving yards against the Vikings, which means we can price the Over 61.5 receiving yards at -125. This bet is showing a positive expected value of 6%, an edge I didn't see on the Overs for Herbert's or Allen's yardage props.
The bets are always about finding probability gaps in the betting lines, but your confidence in hitting the button on this player prop grows when you see how the Vikings' secondary has been performing this season. The PFF player grades for starting cornerbacks Byron Murphy Jr. and Akayleb Evans are 53.9 and 63.1, respectively, which is quite poor.
If you're looking to get in on some spread action for this game, Mike Spector is leaning toward Tampa to keep it close with his Eagles-Buccaneers prediction.
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Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)
Kyle Pitts Over 33.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
If you play fantasy football and you drafted Pitts, I don't know what to tell you; you might have been tricked once again. The good news for us sports bettors betting on player props is that his receiving yards total is adjusted for his low statistical outputs so far, and we only need him to perform better than this number for one week.
This week appears to be the perfect opportunity for it to happen, as the Lions gave up more than 33.5 receiving yards to three tight ends on the Seattle Seahawks last week. You read that correctly; three different tight ends, Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, and Will Dissly, all had more than 33.5 receiving yards against the Lions. Additionally, the Lions will be without their starting safety in the secondary, C.J. Garder-Johnson, who is out with an injury.
I mean, this total seems too low for Pitts in a game against the Lions. I know the Falcons have been reluctant to give their best offensive weapon the ball, but at 33.5 receiving yards, Pitts could realistically achieve that with just one play. Pitts had a 34-yard reception in Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers, and the Falcons will need their offense to keep its foot on the gas to upset the Lions as 3-point underdogs.
Pitts is projected to have 45.3 receiving yards against the Lions, which means we can price the Over 33.5 receiving yards at -150, yet it's available at bet365 at -110. Most of our other best sports betting sites have the total of 33.5 juiced to -120, so make sure to take advantage of this price at bet365 to maximize your edge.
Our Phil Wood is eyeing another Atlanta playmaker in his Falcons-Lions predictions for Week 3.
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Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)
Jared Goff Under 271.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐ ✅
Injuries are already piling up for the Detroit Lions on the offensive side of the ball, and the Atlanta Falcons have been the most run-heavy offense in the league through two weeks. So, it’s not exactly a Betty Crocker-endorsed recipe for Goff and the Detroit passing attack.
I have Goff projected for 260.4 passing yards and would price this Under at -139. He soared over this total with 323 passing yards against the Seattle Seahawks last week, but I’m expecting a slower pace and a low-scoring contest against the Falcons in Week 3.
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There’s a positive expected value of 11% based on my projections compared to the -110 bet365 odds.
For another player prop tied to his matchup, our Philip Wood is eyeing Bijan Robinson and his presence out of the backfield in his Falcons-Lions prediction. Take a look at all of our NFL predictions for Week 3, too.
Pick made by Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)
NFL player props for Week 3: Thursday
Daniel Jones Over 20.5 pass completions (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐ ✅
This bet hinges on the Giants' potential game plan, given the 10-point spread against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. If the Giants trail or get blown out, expect a pass-heavy strategy, with the 49ers likely allowing short completions to eat up the clock and prevent big plays.
The Giants' offensive line has also been struggling, and it won't get any easier against the 49ers' front, so the ball could come out quickly for easy completions. Additionally, there will be added emphasis on the passing game with Saquon Barkley sidelined due to injury.
Jones is projected to complete 21.1 passes against the 49ers, which doesn't feel like it's much over the total of 20.5 pass completions, but it's the juice that is in our favor here. With this projection, we can price Jones at -110 to complete more than 20.5 passes, giving us an edge over the +105 price point via DraftKings.
If the +105 bet via DraftKings disappears, don't hesitate to consider the Over 19.5 (-130) via BetRivers. You're paying more juice, but the Over 19.5 at BetRivers actually has a higher expected value than, for example, playing the Over 20.5 (-102) at FanDuel.
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Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)
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