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Russell Wilson NFL Player Props, Odds Week 10: Predictions for Broncos vs. Bills

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 13, 2023 5:29 PM EST • 4 min 11 sec read.

The Denver Broncos and Russell Wilson look to record a third consecutive win when they visit the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football, and we have you covered with our Russell Wilson player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.

Coming off back-to-back wins over the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs, the Denver Broncos (3-5) had a bye week to prepare for this game. The Broncos currently hold a seven-game losing streak in Monday Night Football contests, which stands as the second-longest active streak in the NFL. A loss in the upcoming game would tie them for the longest streak (eight games), a record currently held by the New York Giants.

Buffalo (5-4) has seen its playoff probability go from 72.5% in the preseason to 56.9% entering Week 10, per ESPN's Football Power Index. The Bills have not covered the spread in five consecutive games, the NFL's longest active streak.

Along with our Broncos vs. Bills prediction, our Monday Night Football player props, and our Josh Allen props, here are our best Russell Wilson NFL player prop predictions for the Broncos vs. Bills Week 10 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Russell Wilson NFL player prop predictions for Week 10

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Russell Wilson player props

Russell Wilson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+172 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

The Bills have been one of the most injury-ravaged defenses in the NFL this season, and those injuries continue to pile up this week, with safety Micah Hyde and cornerback Christian Benford being ruled out. The Bills have only had three defensive players who have started the first nine games and are available to start in Week 10 (defensive end Leonard Floyd, nickelback Taron Johnson, and linebacker Terrel Bernard), according to The Buffalo News sportswriter Ryan O'Halloran. Thus, this wager is worth a flier at plus-money odds, as Wilson has already matched his touchdown total (16) from last season in just eight games.

The Broncos entered the week with the highest passing rate inside the 5-yard line, per Underdog Fantasy's Hayden Winks. Also, Denver has just one rushing touchdown, which has happened 11 times since 2000 in a team's first eight games. Sixteen of Denver's 17 touchdowns have come through the air, the highest rate in the league, so if you think the Broncos will find the endzone multiple times, this wager deserves a strong look.

Caesars is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering better than +170 odds for this wager, and the +172 price is a steal compared to the +154 found at FanDuel.

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Russell Wilson Over 29.5 pass attempts (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Opponents lately have identified moving the ball through the air as the best way to beat the Bills, as the last two quarterbacks they have faced (Baker Mayfield and Joe Burrow) attempted 42 and 44 passes, respectively. Interestingly, both players' attempts came in completely different game scripts, with the Bills never trailing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and never leading the Cincinnati Bengals. And while Wilson is averaging 5.9 yards per attempt over the last four games compared to 7.7 yards per attempt over the first four, per Sharp Football Analysis, a dink-and-dunk approach may play better against Buffalo's heavy zone scheme with the Bills likely willing to concede underneath passes as three of their best defensive backs are out.

The O/U of 29.5 found at BetMGM and DraftKings is a much better value than the O/U of 31.5 at FanDuel.

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Russell Wilson Under 0.5 interceptions (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Wilson has not thrown an interception in four of his previous five games and has gone without one in five of eight. That recent stretch of protecting the football has also come with decisions to leave the pocket and run more often, as five of his top six rushing totals for the year have come in the last six weeks. Wilson faces a Bills defense that ranks last in the NFL in percentage of drives ending in turnovers (2.6%) over the past four games, per Sharp Football Analysis. In that span, the Bills also rank dead-last in turnover differential (minus-six), so we expect Wilson to play clean football despite expecting him to have an uptick in pass attempts.

BetMGM and DraftKings are the only two of our best sports betting sites offering plus-money odds, as Caesars is slightly shorter at -106.

Don't miss Brenden Schaeffer's Broncos vs. Bills parlay for more action on Monday Night Football.

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Russell Wilson player prop picks made 11/13/2023 at 6:07 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”