Saints Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for New Orleans
Derek Carr hopes to lead the New Orleans Saints back to the NFL playoffs for the first time since 2020 in his first season with the team, and our 2023 Saints betting preview looks at what may be in store in The Big Easy based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites.
Derek Carr was on pace to lead the NFL in interceptions last season before being shut down early by the Las Vegas Raiders amid a lost season. Still, the 2014 second-round pick was named to the Pro Bowl for the fourth time in his career and then signed a four-year, $150-million contract with the New Orleans Saints after their third-place finish in the NFC South last season.
Carr will lead a talented offensive corps including wide receivers Michael Thomas and Chris Olave under head coach Dennis Allen. The rebuilt defense will be challenged to make life easy on the incoming signal-caller.
Check out our 2023 Saints betting preview based on the odds from our best sports betting apps as part of our 2023 NFL betting guide (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saints betting preview 2023
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Saints to win Under 9.5 games (-125 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings (9.5) | FanDuel (9.5) | BetMGM (9.5) | Caesars (9.5) | bet365 (9.5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over +105 | Over +114 | Over +115 🔥 | Over +105 | Over +105 |
| Under -125 | Under -140 ❄️ | Under -139 | Under -125 🔥 | Under -130 |
The Saints were favored in 10 games on the opening NFL odds and betting lines for 2023 but still our top sportsbooks have the Under 9.5 wins heavily juiced. I'm making this a four-star pick due to the value we're getting in the odds from Caesars relative to our other best sportsbooks.
FanDuel's -140 odds on the Under 9.5 wins for the Saints represents a 58.33% implied probability, while the -110 from Caesars represents a 52.38% probability but it takes just $110 to return $100 on a winning bet, while it would take an investment of $140 for the same return at FanDuel.
Though the Saints have the easiest strength of schedule for 2023, according to Sharp Football Analysis, the 10 victories needed to cash an Over ticket still calls for a three-win improvement from last year's 7-10 campaign. Looking at the Saints' 2023 schedule, obvious trouble spots are their two Thursday Night Football games that require travel back home or out on the road on a short week. They'll also visit the Green Bay Packers on a short week after a road game against the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football in Week 2.
Defensively, the Saints got older with the comings and goings of free agency. They'll be relying heavily on first-, second-, and fifth-round draft picks to step up quickly, but seem ill-prepared to handle any early injury losses.
Even with a top wideout in Olave, Carr will struggle to lead this offense to high-scoring victories with his worsening accuracy. The Saints will also be without star running back Alvin Kamara for the first three games of the season due to a suspension following a February incident in Las Vegas.
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Saints to finish fourth in NFC South (+800 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
| Market | DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To win Super Bowl | +3000 ❄️ | +4000 | +4000 | +3500 | +3300 |
| To win NFC | +1200 ❄️ | +1700 🔥 | +1600 | +1400 | +1600 |
| To win NFC South | +120 | +130 | +130 | +105 ❄️ | +110 |
This is an admitted long-shot pick but the pricing on the fourth-place finisher in the NFC South this season is out of whack at DraftKings. It's also notable how much variance there is among the Saints' futures markets outside of their near-consensus Super Bowl odds.
The Saints are +800, the Falcons are +400, the Panthers are +255, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are -110 favorites. Tampa Bay won the division at 8-9 last season (with Tom Brady) while the other three teams shared a 7-10 record. All four teams enter 2023 with a different Week 1 starter under center than they had for 2022.
These odds across the division for the undesirable fourth-place finish don't accurately reflect how tight the NFC South was in 2022 and projects to be in 2023.
NFC South dual forecast: Falcons/Saints (+145 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
We're getting good value again from DraftKings with BetMGM offering this same market but with +135 odds on the Falcons and Saints to finish 1-2 in the division in either order.
The two teams have the first- and second-shortest odds to win the NFC South this season, so we're using that to our advantage and hedging with the dual forecast over the "1-2 exact" or "exact order" division markets.
At DraftKings, the Saints to finish first and Falcons to finish second carries +285 odds and the reverse order is priced at +425. The plus-money odds here serve as a hedge of our long-shot pick on the Saints to finish last in the division.
Saints Under 3.5 wins in NFC South (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Saints went 2-4 in their division last season with the two wins both coming against the Falcons and by a total of four points. The were swept in the season series against both the Panthers and Buccaneers.
While both of those teams have a new quarterback this season, so do the Saints. I also value coaching a lot in this market, and I have Allen well behind Arthur Smith (Falcons), Frank Reich (Panthers), and Todd Bowles (Buccaneers) in the NFC South hierarchy.
Derek Carr to lead NFL in interceptions (+2000 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
This is my favorite wager in our Saints betting preview based on the odds from our Louisiana sports betting apps.
Carr tossed 14 interceptions in each of the last two seasons and did it last year in just 15 games. Though he'll face much better weather in road games in the NFC South, he faces new defenses and has a brand new receiving corps with which to work. Carr is 10th by the odds to lead the NFL in passing yards this season, and with a lofty yardage total comes the added likelihood of interceptions.
Most importantly, FanDuel has Carr priced at +1600 to lead the league in interceptions so we're pouncing on this inflated line from DraftKings.
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