Steelers Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for Pittsburgh

The Pittsburgh Steelers offer a solid range of outcomes for the 2023-24 NFL season, and bettors should take advantage at the best sports betting apps. Read on for our plan of attack in this Steelers betting preview.

Head coach Mike Tomlin still has yet to post a losing season since taking over the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2007. With Tomlin leading the way, the Steelers boast a high floor following consecutive nine-win seasons.

But there's some sneaky upside with this year's squad, too, as quarterback Kenny Pickett is set to enter his second NFL season. Year 2 is usually when we see the biggest jump in young quarterbacks. So will Pickett's leap be enough for the Steelers to earn a postseason bid?

Check out our 2023 Pittsburgh Steelers betting preview based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

Steelers betting preview 2023

(Picks made on July 13)

Steelers to win Under 9 games (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Aug. 29)

Betting against the Steelers to record double-digit wins seems like the safest play. The Steelers have won double-digit games just once in the last five seasons, going 12-4 in 2020 when advanced metrics suggested they were more of a 10-win team. They also only won nine games in 2022 when the club was the league's healthiest team.

I believe there's some upside with this team if Pickett shows progress from his rookie season. But I would rather bet on the upside in specific markets that offer juicier odds, as the most likely outcome is that the AFC North proves to be too overwhelming for this version of the Steelers.

My power ratings project right around 8.25 wins for the Steelers, so I don't mind taking the Under at 8.5. But the Under is still my preference in this market as long as we can still get the number at 9. After all, Tomlin continues to prove why he's a tough coach to bet against.

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Steelers to finish 4th in AFC North (+175 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Aug. 29)

It will be Pickett's playoff debut if the Steelers make the postseason, and I'm not comfortable betting on a deep run when he would need to defeat the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. That makes Pittsburgh's Super Bowl and AFC Championship prices a non-starter for me.

The Steelers do face a path to winning the AFC North, though I'd need something juicier than +500 when my fair price is a bit longer than that. Instead, I'm betting on the Steelers to finish last in the AFC North at +175.

There might not be much of a gap between fourth and first within this competitive division. The Steelers, who ended up third after going 9-8 in 2022, were only three games behind the Cincinnati Bengals in first.

I have the Steelers power-rated as the division's worst team entering the season. There's a reason why our best sports betting sites are giving the Steelers the best chance to finish fourth in the AFC North, and they're trading as short as +115 at one shop. As such, we will bet this bargain price of +175.

Steelers to not make playoffs (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sticking with what I project to be the most likely outcome for the 2023 Pittsburgh squad, I'm betting the Steelers will miss the playoffs for the second straight year. But this pick is more about how tough the AFC will be again.

From a power-ratings perspective, I project the Steelers to be 10th in the AFC. With only seven teams earning a playoff bid, the Steeler's work will be cut out for them to notch a wild-card berth.

Additionally, Pickett's late surge to end 2023 was a result of some late-down magic. The Steelers led the league in third-down conversions over expected from Week 10 onward, according to Clev Analytics. I'm not sure how repeatable that is this season.

With the market as high as -180 on Pittsburgh to miss the playoffs, there's value in taking a -150 offering at this point in the offseason.

Editor's note: The best price on the Steelers to miss the playoffs is now -155 at DraftKings.

Mike Tomlin to win Coach of the Year (+2500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

While I've been placing more wagers on the Steelers' low-end outcome, this is my favorite angle if you're shooting for upside with this team. Tomlin has somehow never won this award, despite his sustained success for the last 16 years.

The award is typically given to young head coaches, but it's more about which team ends up exceeding expectations the most. Tomlin currently does sit among the top 10 on our NFL Coach of the Year Award odds.

Nine of the past 11 winners for this award have led their team to double-digit wins, with the exceptions being Bruce Arians in 2012 as an interim head coach and Brian Daboll in 2022-23. Of those 11 winners, only one coach has produced a preseason win total of 9.5 or higher entering the season (Mike Vrabel in 2021).

If the Steelers reach the double-digit win threshold, we would likely lose the rest of our tickets in this preview. But this +2500 award future would absolutely have life, leading to a nice payout to help withstand those losing wagers. That's how I'm playing Pittsburgh's range of outcomes.

Editor's note: The best price on Tomlin to win Coach of the Year is now +2200 at DraftKings.

Najee Harris Over 900.5 rushing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Betting on former first-round running backs is a hobby of mine. We spend so much time criticizing a team for selecting an RB in the first round that they often become underrated in the market (see: Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs entering last season).

Harris has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard campaigns since being drafted by the Steelers with the No. 24 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. A feat he has somehow accomplished without much help from his offensive line.

Harris has averaged just 1.12 yards per carry prior to contact, according to Graham Barfield of Fantasy Pts, which ranks last among the 35 running backs with 250 or more carriers over the last two seasons.

The Steelers revamped the left side of their offensive line this offseason, which included selecting left tackle Broderick Jones in the first round. With better blocking up front, Harris should flirt with 1,000 rushing yards once again. In fact, ESPN's Mike Clay is projecting 964 yards in 14 games for Harris this season.

DraftKings has set this line as high as 975.5, so we are getting a nice discount by placing this bet at FanDuel.

Editor's note: The latest rushing total is now 925.5 yards, with the Over listed at -112 via FanDuel.

NFL betting preview

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