Patriots Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for New England

The New England Patriots face an uphill battle in 2023 following a third-place division finish and the rest of the AFC East entering the campaign with Super Bowl aspirations. Can New England compete in football's toughest division? Check out our best New England Patriots futures predictions based on the best NFL odds.

The Patriots are cursed with being a good team in a great division - their MLB counterparts, the Boston Red Sox, are suffering the same fate in baseball's American League East. This is important to remember when placing futures bets or even handicapping the Patriots' games throughout the season.

As such, our Patriots futures may look a bit contradictory, but that comes with the territory.

Can New England shock the football world and take down the juggernauts of the AFC East, or is it destined for a last-place finish?

Check out our 2023 New England Patriots betting preview based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

Patriots betting preview 2023

Patriots to win Over 7.5 games (+120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

This win total - and the aggressive juice on the Under - feels like an overreaction to Aaron Rodgers joining the New York Jets. The Patriots won eight games in 2022 and can certainly repeat that feat this season.

New England has very winnable games against the New Orleans Saints (home), Las Vegas Raiders (away), Washington Commanders (home), Indianapolis Colts (home), and Pittsburgh Steelers (away). The Patriots then need to win just three of a handful of toss-up games, including home against the Miami Dolphins, away to the New York Giants following a bye, home to the Los Angeles Chargers, home to the Kansas City Chiefs in mid-December, and home to the Jets in Week 18. 

However, the main reason I like this bet is because of the number at bet365. The fact that we're getting significant plus-money odds for a team to simply repeat what it did last year with an arguably tougher schedule is too juicy to pass up. BetMGM offers another very interesting option among our best sports betting apps, as it dropped the Patriots' wins total to 6.5. With the Over trading at -140, I support betting either that or bet365's offering at 7.5.

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Patriots to finish 4th in AFC East (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

Here's that bit of contradiction we discussed earlier. Sure, I think the Patriots are good enough to win eight-plus games. However, I don't think they're good enough to win more games than any other team in the division.

Bill Belichick is one of the NFL's all-time coaches, but the once-dynastic Patriots don't have enough talent to seriously challenge their AFC East rivals for a playoff spot. 

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Mac Jones Over 3,199.5 passing yards (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

Mac Jones finished just Under this number with 2,997 yards last year, but that came in just 14 games. In 2021 while playing the full 17-game slate, Jones soared Over even bet365's listed total with 3,801 yards.

Additionally, Jones' projections also favor the Over. NumberFire projects him to finish with 3,809.32 passing yards, while ESPN's Mike Clay has Jones at 3,353 passing yards. However, we're going with the lower total for a couple of reasons.

First, Jones played second fiddle to No. 2 quarterback Bailey Zappe for a couple of games last season. If that happens again, getting nearly a games-worth of wiggle room with Caesars' total vs. DraftKings' could pay dividends. 

The Patriots lost leading receiver Jakobi Meyers but replaced him with Juju Smith-Schuster, and Jonnu Smith - who had an inefficient 9.1 yards per reception last season - is swapped out for the more explosive Mike Gesicki.

Between the fact that he managed nearly 3,000 yards in only 14 games last season and that the projections support a bounce-back season, we're riding with Jones' Over at DraftKings.

Rhamondre Stevenson to record 175+ rushing yards in any regular-season game (+275 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

This is a big number, but the talented back nearly hit it last year when he managed 172 rushing yards on only 19 carries vs. the Raiders. Additionally, he came close in another game, as he ran for 161 yards against the Detroit Lions.

The latter represented Stevenson's season high in carries with 25, a number I believe he could reach multiple times throughout the 2023 season. Damien Harris is gone, and the Patriots are going to need to rely on their most talented players if they hope to compete with their powerhouse division rivals.

Ezekiel Elliott joining the Pats does complicate matters, but I still expect Stevenson to be leaned on in a handful of close games and grind out at least 175 rushing yards in at least one of them.

Ezekiel Elliott Over 375.5 rushing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

I get it, Elliott is washed. But this number is still ridiculous low - as evidenced by DraftKings and Caesars' 425.5 total. Elliott looked truly awful last season, and he still managed 3.8 yards per carry and 876 rushing yards in 15 games.

For once, NumberFire is on the low end with its projection of 479.43 rushing yards for Elliott. Meanwhile, Clay has Elliott at 529 rushing yards for the season. Regardless of which projection model you wish to reference, both have Elliott soaring Over the total listed at FanDuel (as well as those at our other best sports betting sites, too).

I know some will argue that Elliott won't get the required ~100 carries to reach this number. However, I think it's much more likely that the Patriots cut him and he lands with a desperate team rather than simply give him 80 or fewer carries over the course of a 17-game season.

I'm playing the lowest number, because at his point in Elliott's career, the difference between FanDuel's number and the one at DraftKings and Caesars could be an entire game. Additionally, the Over at Caesars is more heavily juiced than the one at FanDuel, anyway.

NFL betting preview

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• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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