Ravens Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for Baltimore

The Baltimore Ravens are once again getting some support in the betting market, but are we buying into the hype this year? Read on for our favorite picks in this Baltimore Ravens betting preview to find out.

It was a familiar story for the Baltimore Ravens during the 2022-23 campaign.

For the second straight year, the Ravens got off to a strong start with a 7-3 record before a late-season injury to Lamar Jackson resulted in a 10-7 finish. Without Jackson, Baltimore suffered a 24-17 defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals during the Wild Card Round.

Now that Jackson has inked a deal to make him the highest-paid player in NFL history, there are no more excuses for the Ravens. They need to make a deep run after recording just one playoff victory over the last eight years.

Check out our 2023 Baltimore Ravens betting preview based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

Ravens betting preview 2023

(Picks made on July 12)

Ravens to win Over 9.5 games (-150 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Aug. 29)

Full disclosure: I'm sitting on an Over 8.5 wins ticket for Baltimore from the early part of the offseason and the Over on 9.5 wins continues to become more juiced. At some point, there will be value in coming back on the Under, but I still think Over 9.5 wins is worth a bet right now.

Editor's note: Since this bet was made, the best price on Over 9.5 wins is now -170 through bet365.

The Ravens have finished Under their win total for three straight years since going 14-2 and claiming the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC during 2019. But Baltimore tallied a double-digit win total in each of the last three years, including 10.5 entering 2022.

With a win total now in the single digits, there's reason to believe this team is due for some positive regression, particularly on the injury front. Jackson missed 10 games over the last two seasons, though the Ravens are 15-9 when No. 8 is under center over that span.

However, I will be looking to pounce on an adjusted in-season win total given Baltimore's recent history of strong starts. The Ravens should open the year with a big victory, as they're double-digit favorites against the Houston Texans in Week 1.

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Ravens to finish as No. 1 seed in AFC (+900 via Barstool) ⭐⭐

(Odds as of Aug. 29)

Look, I'm not picking the Ravens to finish as the No. 1 seed in the AFC. I'm honestly not even picking them to finish atop the AFC North, as this division will continue to run through Cincinnati until further notice.

But this number is too juicy to pass up for a team with a double-digit win total, especially since the Ravens were the No. 1 overall seed as recently as 2019. And they were on track to be a top team in this conference with Lamar in the lineup over the last couple of years.

This free season preview guide from ClevAnalytics picks Baltimore to claim the No. 1 seed in the AFC this year, citing positive regression in the fourth quarter compared to 2022. Baltimore led the NFL in blended fourth-quarter win probability, but the Ravens lost four games by a total of eight points.

With better results in crunch time, perhaps the Ravens can win a few more games than expected and claim the coveted bye this postseason. At the very least, Baltimore shouldn't be this much behind the Bengals (+500) and Buffalo Bills (+550) in a market that rewards regular-season success.

Lamar Jackson Over 725.5 regular-season rushing yards (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Greg Roman might be gone, but you are kidding yourself if you don't think the Ravens will continue to utilize Jackson in the run game. Jackson making so much money right now because he's the league's best rushing quarterback.

The dynamic passer has actually cleared this mark in all four campaigns since becoming Baltimore's full-season starting quarterback in 2019. That includes 2021 (767 rushing yards) and 2022 (764 rushing yards), when he played just a dozen games in each season.

ESPN's Mike Clay is projecting 933 rushing yards over 15 games for Jackson, which is fair considering he cleared 1,000 rushing yards in both 2019 and 2020.

This total is much higher at some of our other best sports betting sites, including Caesars' line of 785.5. As a result, we will absolutely take this +100 offering on DraftKings' measly 725.5 total while we still can.

Editor's note: The best price on Over 725.5 rushing yards is now -110 at DraftKings.

Odell Beckham Jr. Under 4.5 receiving touchdowns (-130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

We haven't seen Odell Beckham Jr. since the 2022 Super Bowl when the then-Los Angeles Rams receiver suffered a torn ACL against the Bengals. There's no telling what the 30-year-old will look like during his first season with the Ravens.

Still, my favorite OBJ-related bet is on him to score four or fewer receiving touchdowns in 2023. This line is already down to 3.5 at FanDuel, so I'm not sure how long this number will last. Beckham started his career with three double-digit TD campaigns in as many seasons, but he's cleared this mark just twice since 2017.

Editor's note: The best price on Under 4.5 touchdowns is now -160 at Caesars.

Moreover, Jackson has tossed only 33 touchdown passes over his last two seasons. His career TD rate has settled in at 6.1% since a 36-touchdown showing during his MVP campaign. With the best supporting cast that Jackson has ever benefitted from in his young career, there are only so many touchdowns to go around.

Clay's projections at ESPN are showing tight end Mark Andrews leading the way with seven scores. Rookie receiver Zay Flowers, who should become a favorite target on deep passes, is expected to score five times. Clay is pegging OBJ to finish with four TDs, but even that might be optimistic when you factor in Rashod Bateman's involvement.

Zay Flowers to lead rookies in receiving yards (+600 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

Perhaps I'm getting swept up in the camp excitement, but initial reports are brimming with compliments for Flowers.

As we consider the group of rookie receivers, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks), Jordan Addison (Minnesota Vikings), and Quentin Johnston (Los Angeles Chargers), the other first-year pass-cathers' odds of leading the rookie class in receiving yards appear more favorable. However, none of them are anticipated to be the primary choices within their respective receiver units for the upcoming season.

On the contrary, Flowers possesses the potential to emerge as the Ravens' main receiver. The return of OBJ and Bateman from injuries introduces an element of uncertainty, whereas Flowers brings a distinctive skill set that sets him apart from others on the team. Not only is he likely to serve as the team's primary deep threat, but Baltimore could also incorporate designed short throws to showcase Flowers' abilities after the catch.

With fresh offensive coordinator Todd Monken calling the shots, Baltimore's receivers should experience greater involvement compared to the previous era under Roman. For that reason, the +600 odds on the first-round pick from Boston College seem like good value.

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