Jets Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for New York

The New York Jets finished fourth in the AFC East last year, but they did improve significantly in their second year under head coach Robert Saleh. Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is their new quarterback. Check out our best New York Jets betting preview for our top futures predictions based on the best NFL odds.

Despite the Jets finishing fourth in the AFC East last season, they improved upon their 2021 record by going 7-10, an impressive feat considering their extremely shaky quarterback play.

With one of the best quarterbacks of all time joining the fray, can Aaron Rodgers and the Jets mesh enough in Year 1 to become serious contenders? Or will Jets fans have to continue to reminisce on those good ol' Mark Sanchez days?

Check out our 2023 New York Jets betting preview based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

New York Jets betting preview 2023

Jets to win Over 9.5 games (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

The key to a successful season for the Jets will be navigating a tricky start to the campaign. New York has a Week 7 bye, and its stretch of games prior to that includes contests against the Dallas Cowboys and Denver Broncos, and home matchups vs. the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Philadelphia Eagles. It's possible the Jets start the season 2-4 or even 1-5. However, if they can win a few of those tough games and enter the bye with a .500 record, 10-plus wins are on the table.

New York closes the season with a number of very winnable games, including home affairs against the Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, and Washington Commanders, and their road games against the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots also offer opportunities to add to the wins total.

If the Jets play to their potential, it's fair to say that the worst-case scenario for this team is nine wins, and I believe they can win as many as 13 based on the schedule. In the end, it comes down to whether Rodgers is worth three more wins than the combination of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White (and that's without factoring in the natural growth of many of the team's young stars).

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Jets to win AFC (+1100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

As we noted in the wins total section, the Jets' schedule is backloaded with winnable games, and that should help the team if it enters the playoffs. New York will undoubtedly face adversity during the first six weeks of the season, but if it can overcome those challenges, it will enter the latter stages of the campaign with all of the momentum.

Rodgers went to New York with only one thing on his mind: winning. The Jets have all the pieces to make a deep postseason run, so we'll shoot big here and ride with them going all the way to the Super Bowl.

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Aaron Rodgers Over 3,800.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

When it comes to futures betting (and, really, all betting), odds shopping is key. By making this bet on Rodgers' Over at FanDuel, we are getting more than 150 more yards of wiggle room and sacrificing only two points of value compared to DraftKings - and Caesars has its total 125 yards higher with both the Over and Under at -115.

Rodgers failed to hit this number last season, but that was with an extremely compromised Green Bay Packers wide receivers corps. Now, in New York, Rodgers is set to throw to reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Garrett Wilson, as well as speedster Mecole Hardman, solid deep threat Corey Davis, and a pair of trusted Packers teammates in Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.

Rodgers easily cleared this total in four straight seasons prior to 2022, and he should feel rejuvenated on a team that's clearly invested in winning in 2023.

NumberFire projects Rodgers to finish with 4,098.44 passing yards this season, and ESPN's Mike Clay projects 4,026 passing yards. This is one of the easiest Overs in the passing yards market.

Garrett Wilson Over 7.5 receiving touchdowns (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

Four of our NFL prop betting sites have listed Wilson's regular-season receiving touchdowns prop. (FanDuel's -108 offering is no longer available, as it moved to -124. I'm less interested in the bet now. If the Over moves back to somewhere around -115, I'd support betting it.)

The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year managed only four touchdowns in his first NFL season, but that was with inferior quarterback play. He did, however, manage 1,103 receiving yards and showcased his exceptional release throughout the campaign, a skill that's vital in and around the red zone.

Both NumberFire and Clay project Wilson to finish with roughly nine receiving touchdowns, and most analysts expect the second-year receiver to experience significant positive regression from his four-touchdown campaign a year ago.

Additionally, if you're looking for a narrative to support the numbers, Rodgers has a tendency to identify his alpha receiver and target them frequently in the end zone. He did just that for multiple years with Davante Adams (69 receiving touchdowns in 87 games from 2016 to 2021), and he continued that trend last year once he identified rookie Christian Watson as "the guy," connecting for seven scores following Week 9.

Dalvin Cook Over 625.5 rushing yards (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

Dalvin Cook showed some signs of slowing down in his final year with the Minnesota Vikings. He still averaged 1.8 yards after contact, but his 4.4 yards per carry and 69 yards per game served as some of the worst marks of his career. However, he proved he's still relatively efficient.

Additionally, the Jets gave Cook $5.8 million guaranteed to play one season in New York, a sign that the team could very likely lean on him with franchise back Breece Hall returning from a torn ACL.

NumberFire's projection for Cook's rushing yards is a truly outrageous 983.74, and it also projects Hall to finish with over 1,000 rushing yards (apparently the Jets will run the most prolific offense of all time). However, Clay has a much more reasonable projection of 736 yards on a cool 172 carries. If Cook reaches that mark, he'd sore Over this number at DraftKings. At even money, this is a slam dunk.

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