Cowboys Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for Dallas

Whether you love or hate the Dallas Cowboys, the NFL is more interesting when they're among the best teams in the league. Will a pair of home-run acquisitions be enough to push Big D into the Super Bowl picture? We share our thoughts in our Cowboys betting preview.

The Dallas Cowboys overcame a pair of devastating early-season injuries to franchise quarterback Dak Prescott and standout tackle Tyron Smith to reach the 12-win plateau for the second year in a row – and with both players fully healthy and ready to helm a wonderfully-balanced roster, hopes are high in Dallas as the team looks to end its 28-year Super Bowl drought.

Yet, while the defense returns the majority of its key players, two big departures on offense will put more pressure on a pair of the Cowboys' top young playmakers to take a step forward. And as good as the Cowboys are on paper, they still have to contend with the defending NFC champs in the Philadelphia Eagles, along with a New York Giants team expected to continue its upward trajectory.

And the Washington Commanders ... are also in the division.

Check out our 2023 Dallas Cowboys betting preview based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

Cowboys betting preview 2023

Cowboys to win Over 9.5 games (-162 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

(Odds updated Friday, August 25 at 2 p.m. ET)

Here's the big problem with favoring the Over on a Dallas Cowboys win prop: when the team is good, even the most casual fans take notice. And public money has pushed the O9.5 down from the -120 range across the board to as low as -170 at bet365 and DraftKings, which is putrid.

Even with running back Ezekiel Elliott and No. 1 tight end Dalton Schultz out of the picture, the Cowboys boast one of the most fearsome offenses in football – with a stout defense to match. Dallas's strength of schedule entering 2023 falls in the middle league-wide, and while there aren't many cake matchups, the Cowboys should be favored in the majority of their games.

Adding standout pass-catcher Brandin Cooks to a wide receiver room that already includes a superstar in CeeDee Lamb and a finally healthy Michael Gallup is a significant move – as is bringing in versatile cornerback Stephon Gilmore to help shore up one of the Cowboys' few weaknesses from last season.

Dallas has racked up 12 wins in back-to-back seasons, and it's difficult to envision a path to a worse result in 2023, barring a chain of notable injuries. The sportsbooks have learned that the public feels this way, as well, which is why this play has become quite a bit chalkier.

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Cowboys to win NFC (+650 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

As a San Francisco 49ers die-hard, this pick deeply offends me (and yes, I know I'm the one making it, so shhhh.) But Dallas is the most complete team in the NFC from top to bottom – and yes, I'm including both the 49ers and division-rival Eagles in this comparison.

Even the most ardent Cowboys hater must admit that there is precious little separating Dallas, San Francisco, and Philadelphia at this point. And with the 2023 Cowboys looking even better than last year's iteration, there's tremendous conference title value here compared with the odds on either the Eagles (+260 at BetMGM) or the 49ers (+400).

Choosing any club to win a conference title is a tall order, hence my three-star rating here – but no other top-tier NFC team offers better value heading into the season.

CeeDee Lamb most regular season receiving yards (+2500 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Yes, the arrival of Cooks might very well have an adverse impact on Lamb's receiving stats. And yes, this market still features Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and a fully healthy Cooper Kupp, among others. But Caesars has simply made Lamb too good to pass up here.

Lamb roasted opponents for 1,359 receiving yards last season despite being the focal point of every team's top pass defender – a stretch that included five games of backup QB Cooper Rush. Cooks' arrival should only make things easier on Lamb, who finished sixth in receiving yards despite being the only player in the top 25 without a single catch of 40-plus yards.

Lamb had the fifth-most receiving yards from Week 7 onward, when Prescott returned to action. A full season with his No. 1 QB in the fold and a skilled veteran receiver capable of taking the top off defenses himself should create a path to a career for Lamb – and as the No. 11 option to lead the NFL in receiving yards at Caesars, he's definitely worth a look.

The rest of our best sportsbooks all have this prop between +1800 and +2200.

Dak Prescott Under 12.5 interceptions (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Dak never looked quite right after coming back from his hand injury, and it showed numerous times in his final 2022 stat line. The Mississippi State alum finished with his second-fewest passing yards, his second-lowest QB rating and the highest interception total of his career.

A return to full health will help – as will the arrival of Cooks, who has made far worse QBs than Prescott look like superstars. And then there's the strength of the Cowboys' offensive line, which enters the season ranked sixth overall according to Pro Football Focus – the same ranking it earned in 2022, before multiple key injuries ravaged the unit.

Prescott has finished north of 13 INTs just once in his career, and that performance was largely due to with O-line depth and some horrible drop luck (though let's not let him off the hook for some truly bizarre decision-making, as well.) Prescott himself has said: "I won't have 10 interceptions this year."

Expect Prescott to clean up his mistakes in 2023, making this prop a strong play. It was better when DraftKings had U13.5 (-125) earlier in August, but BetMGM's number will do just fine.

Cowboys to score 1-plus touchdown in every regular season game (+135 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

When you move the ball as well as the Cowboys do, scoring isn't much of a problem. And with Dallas having averaged around 3.5 touchdowns per game over the previous two regular seasons, it's easy to see why I'm confident in them piling up the scores in 2023.

Dallas has elite playmakers all over the field, along with a sensational defense that recorded three fumble-recovery TDs last season and is a constant threat to run it back. Dallas finished top-five in third- and fourth-down conversion rate last season while boasting the No. 1 red-zone touchdown rate; anywhere close to the same results in 2023 should mean TDs for days.

One bad week will torpedo this play – but if any team is capable of turning any drive on either side of the football into a trip to the end zone, it's this one. And at plus money, I'm willing to give this one a shot.

(All picks and confidence levels as of Aug. 11.)

NFL Betting Previews

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• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
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• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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