After finishing with a record of 13-4 last season, can everyone's favorite quarterback from the new Netflix series "Quarterback" lead the Minnesota Vikings to another NFC North Division crown? Find out in our Minnesota Vikings betting preview based on the odds from the best sports betting apps.
Regression and frauds will be two widely used terms when evaluating the Minnesota Vikings for the upcoming season. Despite winning 13 games last season, there was a strong consensus that the Vikings were not as good as their record suggested.
Kirk Cousins is entering a contract year, as he's in the final year of his deal with the Vikings, and Justin Jefferson is also seeking a significant payday.
With the addition of Brian Flores as the Vikings' defensive coordinator, will the Vikings become a more formidable contender in the NFC? Or will the Vikings face challenges in making the playoffs, despite having several high-profile names on their roster?
Check out our 2023 Minnesota Vikings betting preview based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Minnesota Vikings betting preview 2023
Vikings to win Under 8.5 games (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
|8.5 (+110) 🔥
It's no secret that the Vikings overachieved last season with a 13-4 record, and I believe everyone expects some form of regression. A total of 8.5 wins definitely indicates that regression is forthcoming.
Does the Vikings' win total trading at 8.5 wins persuade the crowd, who anticipate regression but still consider them a good team, to play the Vikings Over their win total? I believe it does, and that's why the sportsbooks settled on this number.
It's easy to be captivated by the star power of Jefferson and an offense that added Jordan Addison in the draft. Additionally, many people may cite the addition of Brian Flores as the defensive coordinator as a reason to bet on the Over 8.5 wins.
Without running the numbers on the Vikings, the win total of 8.5 appears to be an overcorrection, but this is not the case at all. Opening the Vikings at 8.5 wins was the correct decision, and with increased juice on the Over, we can actually place a bet on the Under.
I have the Vikings ranked 17th in my power ratings and project them to win 8.1 games this season. Based on this projection, we can price the Vikings at -128 to go Under their win total, and there's a +110 available at DraftKings.
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To make the playoffs: No (-122 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
|To win Super Bowl
|To win NFC
|To win NFC North
If I don't think the Vikings will win more than 8.5 games, then it's pretty clear that I don't expect them to make the playoffs either. The Vikings are projected to win 8.1 games, giving them a 41.8% chance (+139) of making the playoffs and a 58.2% chance (-139) of missing the playoffs.
The odds board highlights that there's less wiggle room in the Vikings' odds of missing the playoffs compared to their win total Under. DraftKings has the Vikings at -135 to miss the playoffs, which gives us a slight edge. However, FanDuel offers a line of -122, which presents a betting opportunity.
Betting on the Vikings to miss the playoffs (6% +EV) is one way to bet against them, but a higher expected value can be attained by betting Under their win total of 8.5 (18% +EV).
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jordan Addison (+2200 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
The Adam Thielen era in Minnesota has come to an end. After nine seasons with the Vikings, Thielen has signed with the Carolina Panthers. His departure from the Vikings has created a significant opportunity for targets in their offense, particularly alongside Jefferson. To address this need, the Vikings drafted Jordan Addison from USC with their first-round pick. Addison, who won the 2021 Biletnikoff Award as the nation's top wide receiver, joins the Vikings with an opportunity to make an immediate impact.
It's not often that rookie wide receivers find themselves in a favorable situation, playing with an experienced quarterback like Cousins and lining up opposite the game's best wide receiver in Jefferson, who will attract the defense's attention. Due to these circumstances, Addison is projected to have impressive numbers in his rookie season.
According to the projections, Addison is expected to rack up 787 receiving yards, putting him in the upper echelon of rookie wide receivers. Both Addison and fellow rookie wide receiver Jaxson Smith-Njigba have similar projections, yet Addison's odds of +2200 are considerably longer compared to Smith-Njigba's +650.
Considering that Addison is projected to lead the rookie wide receivers in receiving yards, trading at more than triple the price (+2200) of his main competitor in the projections, Smith-Njigba (+650), it becomes quite enticing to consider placing a bet on Addison for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Alternate win total: Under 7.5 wins (+165 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
FanDuel offered us the best price for the Under on the regular win total for the Vikings. So, it's not surprising that we're also finding an advantage in betting on an alternate Under for the Vikings at FanDuel.
We can price the Vikings at +146 to go Under the total of 7.5 wins, but it's actually available at +165. This means that the alternate win total of Under 7.5 wins has an expected value of 8%. While it's not as good as the Under 8.5 wins (18% +EV), it's still a +EV wager.
You could also consider betting on the Vikings to have under 6.5 wins at +285 via DraftKings, but that price would also only provide you with an expected value of 4%, as we can price it at +271. There is value in the alternate Unders for the Vikings. However, based on the projection of 8.1 wins, the Under 8.5 wins (+110) is the strongest play.
Most regular season receiving yards: Justin Jefferson (+600 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
When it comes to betting on players to lead the league in specific statistical categories, I believe people generally enjoy chasing long shots. However, sometimes the most obvious answer is indeed the answer.
I've personally found more success by following this approach rather than chasing long shots. While a +10000 long shot play may seem more exciting than a +600 bet, at the very least, you can work with the +600 price point and use it to build a solid portfolio in this market. There's a strong possibility that any +10000 long shot you bet on may not help you at all and is just a waste of a unit.
On the other hand, if Jefferson is near the top as we fully expect, especially since he's projected to have 1,568 receiving yards leading all wide receivers in the projections, having this ticket in your pocket will allow you to be aggressive and add other top names on the receiving yards leaderboard.
Given that Jefferson is beginning the season with a short price of +600, he will be the most difficult player to obtain in this market if he starts the season hot right out of the gate. Unless there's an injury, I don't believe you would regret placing this bet on Jefferson. If you're going to play this market, having him as part of your portfolio is a must.
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