Texans Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for Houston

The 2023 Houston Texans look quite different entering Week 1, but will all the offseason changes actually result in more wins? Sportsbook Review betting analyst Neil Parker has checked in on the available markets and shares his predictions and picks in our Texans betting preview focused on the latest NFL futures odds from our best sports betting apps.

First-time head coach DeMeco Ryans is right back where it all began. The Houston Texans selected the former linebacker in the 2006 NFL Draft, and now he’ll lead the franchise's rebuild alongside 2023 first-round selections quarterback C.J. Stroud and pass-rusher Will Anderson Jr.

Houston selected the one-two punch with the second and third overall picks, and they join a promising sophomore class headlined by cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and running back Dameon Pierce.

Still, the Texans remain a true long shot in the Super Bowl odds across our best NFL betting sites. So, while there is reason for optimism, Houston hasn’t solved all its problems just yet.

Check out our 2023 Houston Texans betting preview based on the odds from our best best live betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

Texans betting preview 2023

All picks as of July 17.

Texans to win Over 5.5 games (-145 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

(Odds as of Sept. 1)

This is an accurate win total, and I actually have the Texans projected for 6.5 wins. As a result, I’m not comfortable recommending the Over given all the offseason turnover in Houston. Instead, I’d prefer to pivot to the alternate total of 5.5 because there’s a larger edge in the numbers.

My price for Houston to win Over 5.5 games is -197, so we’re gaining a positive expected value of 12% on the -145 price through FanDuel.

For comparison, my price for Over 6.5 wins is +101 and only presents a positive expected value of 9% on the +120 number via Caesars.

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Editor’s note: The odds for Houston to go Over 5.5 wins through FanDuel is -175 as of Sept. 1.

Texans division finishing position: 4th (+145 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Sept. 1)

Anyway you slice it, my numbers project the Texans to finish in the AFC South basement. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars have the best top-to-bottom roster in the division, and the Tennessee Titans always out produce the sum or their parts because head coach Mike Vrabel is legit. Add the Indianapolis Colts positioned to rebound after underachieving in 2022, and Houston fittingly slots in fourth.

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C.J. Stroud Over 3,175.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

I have Stroud projected for 3,344 passing yards, with the Over 3,175.5 priced at -143. As a result, there’s a positive expected value of 11% attached to the -112 number through FanDuel.

DraftKings listing this total at a much higher 3,400.5 yards is also encouraging.

Admittedly, Stroud doesn’t have explosive playmakers at his disposal, and I anticipate the Houston offense prioritizing the rushing attack with running backs Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary checking out as a solid one-two punch.

Still, I think he opens the season as the starting quarterback and compiles his way Over this total.

Editor’s note: FanDuel has moved the total for C.J. Stroud’s passing yards to 3,075.5 (-112) as of Sept. 1.

Dameon Pierce Over 850.5 rushing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

There’s value to be found across the board with Pierce’s totals, but the largest is through FanDuel. I have the sophomore projected for 934 rushing yards, which is actually lower than the 939 he scampered for across 13 games last season.

As noted, I’m anticipating the Texans to be one of the more run-heavy offenses in the league, and Pierce flashed enough as a rookie to give me confidence he can turn in another solid showing.

I have his Over 850.5 rushing yards priced at -163, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 17% on the FanDuel odds.

Finally, I also value the Singletary addition. Helping each other shoulder the load out of the backfield will enable both Singletary and Pierce to stay fresh during games and hopefully healthy throughout the season.

Comeback Player of the Year: John Metchie (+3000 via DraftKings) ⭐

The Texans traded up in the 2022 NFL Draft to select Metchie 44th overall, and then just days before training camp, he was diagnosed with acute promyelocytic leukemia and sidelined for the entire year.

Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin is the betting favorite in this market after suffering from cardiac arrest during last season’s Week 16 game against the Cincinnati Bengals. Hamlin also returned to practice in June.

Still, this honor is awarded as much on narrative as performance, and Metchie’s recovery is triumphant, too. And, if we know anything about the NFL, it’s that all a lot can change in a hurry. A solid 2023 campaign from Metchie will have him closing the season out with much shorter odds than this +3000 number.

Editor’s note: The best odds for Metchie to win the Comeback Player of the Year award are +2800 via DraftKings as of Sept. 1.

NFL Betting Previews

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• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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