Bills Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for Buffalo

The Buffalo Bills are once again the consensus favorites in the AFC East, despite the fact that the division continues to heat up following multiple high-profile offseason moves. Check out our best Buffalo Bills futures predictions based on the best NFL odds.

The Buffalo Bills are coming off their third straight AFC East title, and it appeared they'd add a fourth immediately following the conclusion of the 2022 season. However, there's a new starting quarterback in the division, and he could throw a wrench into the Bills' plans.

Can Buffalo continue its streak of dominance? Or will the Bills play second fiddle to a divisional rival?

Check out our 2023 Buffalo Bills betting preview based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

Buffalo Bills betting preview 2023

Buffalo Bills to win Under 10.5 games (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

The Bills have surpassed this total in each of the last three seasons, but the division improved with the arrival of Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets, and Buffalo has a relatively tough schedule to navigate.

Buffalo should get off to a strong start, with a road test against those aforementioned Jets followed by a string of winnable games. The Bills could even be 7-1 before a Week 9 affair with the Cincinnati Bengals. However, that's when the grind starts. Buffalo will play Cincy on the road before additional road games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and Miami Dolphins, as well as dicey home matchups with the Jets and Dallas Cowboys.

Caesars' +140 offering on the Under is gone, so we'll pivot to DraftKings' +130 price. However, if it settles in around +120 - as is the case at our other best sports betting apps - then we'll likely avoid this market altogether.

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Buffalo Bills to finish 2nd in AFC East (+210 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

And on that note, we arrive at this bet. I don't have a particular lean in regard to whether it will be the Jets or Dolphins who win the AFC East. Rather, I have a hard time believing the Bills can do so if they win 10 or fewer games.

On top of the Bills' relatively challenging schedule, the division continues to improve. Of course, the Jets made the big addition at quarterback, but the Dolphins and New England Patriots should build upon positive 2022-23 seasons. It's a good time to fade the favorites as the AFC East is tighter than ever.

Josh Allen Over 4,150.5 passing yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

Perhaps nothing underscores the importance of odds shopping more than futures betting. Among our best sportsbooks, FanDuel offers our best line and odds for Josh Allen's passing yardage Over.

Compared to DraftKings and Caesars, FanDuel comes in with a total of roughly 100 yards less, and we aren't paying much more in juice to play its Over.

NumberFire projects Allen to finish with 4,555.30 passing yards this season, so there's an argument to play DraftKings' number. However, ESPN's Mike Clay projects Allen to record 4,179 passing yards. NumberFire skews a bit high while Clay's model is somewhat conservative, so the sweet spot appears to be FanDuel's number.

Allen has cleared this number in each of the last three years. In 2022, he actually went Under the totals listed at DraftKings and Caesars for this season. Therefore, we're getting some wiggle room if he throws for just under 4,300 yards once again. 

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Stefon Diggs Over 1,150.5 receiving yards (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

If you're feeling a bit skittish about this number, then head to bet365 for Over 1,125.5 at minus money. However, Caesars is where we go for our favorite bet on Stefon Diggs.

Diggs has gone Over this total in each of the last three seasons since moving from the Minnesota Vikings to the Bills, sailing Over it by more than 200 yards last year.

NumberFire projects Diggs to finish with an absurd 1,455.31 yards this season, but as we previously mentioned, it runs a bit high. However, Mike Clay also comes in with a projection Over this number at 1,203. That means we're getting even money on a total that a more conservative projection model expects to be eclipsed.

Diggs remains Allen's No. 1 receiving threat, and he should once again garner 150-plus targets en route to another monster campaign.

James Cook Over 3.5 rushing touchdowns (+104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of  Tuesday, Aug. 29)

Will the Bills unleash James Cook in his second season? Buffalo added Damien Harris and Latavius Murray in the offseason to bolster its rushing attack following the departure of Devin Singletary. However, Cook should be the one who gets the majority of the backfield work as the future franchise running back, and the projections suggest that he'll get at least enough to go Over this rushing touchdown total.

NumberFire projects Cook to finish with 4.27 touchdowns while Mike Clay comes in at four, too. Additionally, both projection models have Harris finishing with four-plus rushing TDs, so his involvement is baked into Cook's number. Therefore, we'll be in an even better position if the Bills do opt to lean more on Cook. 

NFL Betting Previews

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• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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