Giants Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for New York

The New York Giants are raring to go after surprising many pundits with a strong showing in 2022. They've also dodged a major bullet after signing their franchise running back to a one-year contract. But is a returning Saquon Barkley enough to propel the Giants to success in one of the NFL's toughest divisions? We share our thoughts in our Giants betting preview.

A five-win improvement in his first year at the helm earned Giants bench boss Brian Daboll the NFL's Coach of the Year Award. But what could he possibly do for an encore?

The Giants were surprisingly competitive in 2022, churning out a 9-7-1 record while winning their first postseason game since prevailing during Super Bowl XLVI in 2012. They then rewarded franchise QB Daniel Jones with a super-rich four-year contract and avoided a potential Barkley holdout after inking him to a one-year pact.

Yet, for as good as Daboll was in guiding the Giants to unexpected success, he'll need to be even better in 2023 if New York hopes to take another step forward. Facing four games against powerhouses Dallas and Philadelphia and tough tests against the AFC East, the Giants' road to a postseason return is a rocky one.

Check out our 2023 New York Giants betting preview based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites (pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

Giants betting preview 2023

Giants to win under 7.5 games (-114 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

(Odds updated Friday, Aug. 25 at 2 p.m. ET)

I know a lot of Giants fans are going to pillory me for this, but I'm struggling to see how this team avoids double-digit losses in 2023.

New York did most of its offensive damage on the ground in 2022, boasting the fourth-highest rushing-yards-per-game average in the NFL (148.3). But this is a pass-heavy league. No matter how good the Giants' defense has become, it'll be incredibly difficult to keep up with opponents if New York can't improve upon its 26th-ranked passing offense.

The schedule isn't doing the Giants any favors, either. New York faces one of the least forgiving ledgers of any team in the league, with seven of its first 11 games on the road. That includes a stretch of three straight road dates in three different time zones on Nov. 5-19.

Add in the fact that the Giants still lack a true No. 1 receiver, and the reality of the team struggling to beat either Philadelphia or Dallas, and there's a compelling argument to be made for New York taking a step back in 2023.

Caesars had installed the Over and Under at identical -110 odds initially, and even a slight adjustment in favor of the Under hasn't stopped it from representing the strongest play among our best sports betting apps.

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Giants to miss playoffs (-190 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

If a team can't finish above .500, it'll face overwhelmingly long odds to secure a postseason spot. And while the NFC isn't exactly flush with elite teams, the Giants are likely in tough to return to the playoffs for the second straight year.

Their path starts with four games against the Eagles and Cowboys, and both teams are in the top six in Super Bowl odds at the majority of the best sportsbooks. They'll also face the powerhouse San Francisco 49ers – who are the odds-on favorite to win the NFC West – and the Buffalo Bills. Those four teams all finished in the top-five in point differential in 2022.

Additional games against the rest of the AFC East will present challenges too.

This play is on the low end of my preference scale from an ROI perspective, but I can't resist fading the clear No. 3 team in its own division. DraftKings has a slight edge here on the field, and I don't expect much movement in this market barring some significant division news.

Daniel Jones Over 17.5 passing touchdowns (-112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sure, Jones and touchdown passes go together like Jon Metler and betting trends. But are we really banking on a guy making $40 million per season to quarterback a National Football League team finishing with fewer than one TD pass per game?

I'll grant you that Jones hasn't exactly lit the world on fire, with just 36 total touchdown passes across 41 regular-season games over his previous three seasons (look at that annual salary again ... yikes!). And the Giants are matched up against many of the NFL's top pass defenses.

But in Jones's defense, his receiving corps in 2022 was the NFL's equivalent of a Greek tragedy. A whopping 16 players notched at least one reception in 2022, with only two players hauling in more than 50 passes (and one of those was Barkley).

The additions of Darren Waller and Parris Campbell, along with (hopefully) full seasons from Isaiah Hodgins and Darius Slayton and solid depth in Cole Beasley and Jamison Crowder give Jones a wealth of potential options. New York is going to need to be better through the air to hold a shot at making the playoffs. For that reason, I like Jones to beat his pedestrian TD total.

FanDuel had been a lone wolf at 16.5, but has since moved to the consensus number. It's still offering the best value, but only slightly ahead of bet365 and Caesars at -115.

Kayvon Thibodeaux to lead the league in sacks (+10000 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

Let's get kuh-razy!

This isn't about believing that Thibodeaux should be a favorite to lead the NFL in sacks. He notched just four as a rookie, and his high-water mark in college was nine during Thibodeaux's freshman season with the Oregon Ducks. His season total of 5.75 at DraftKings (with -110 on either side) is well below the totals given to the top contenders to lead the league in sacks.

But Thibodeaux is laser-focused on increasing his sack total during his second season, telling the New York Post he'll be prioritizing "continuing to sharpen the end of my rush, that third phase and (making) sure I start to finish." And Thibodeaux finished with a better pressure rate and pass-rush grade than fellow highly touted rookie Aidan Hutchinson in 2022. That's an impressive feat when you consider how raw he is as a pass-rush threat.

The value here is just too good. I envision a path where Thibodeaux takes full advantage of his incredible physical gifts and racks up the QB takedowns in Year 2. At the very least, a good start to 2023 will allow me to sell this futures ticket during the season and make a nice profit.

Darren Waller Under 700.5 receiving yards (-105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

On one hand, I mentioned Waller prominently when suggesting that Jones will benefit from a much better receiving corps in 2022, and with good reason. Waller has surpassed 1,100 yards in each of his only two full NFL seasons.

Unfortunately, Waller is now entering Year 8 of his pro career, and clearly staying healthy has been a significant issue. The Giants also boast an incredibly crowded wide receiver room, and given how Jones and Daboll spread the receptions around in 2022, it's risky to bank on any one player getting significantly more volume than the field.

If you saw this prop at Caesars at the beginning of August, you would have been able to land an incredible U740.5 at -115. Caesars has since dropped the total by 40, and is now behind DraftKings (which originally had U700.5 at -120 before finally dropping it 15 cents) .

bet365 has the total at 685.5 and FanDuel is at a truly fascinating 625.5 (where you might consider taking the Over to create a nice middling opportunity.)

(Picks and confidence levels as of Aug. 11.)

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