Browns Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for Cleveland

After finishing last in the AFC North a year ago, the Cleveland Browns made improvements on both sides of the ball. But will it be enough to earn a postseason bid in a competitive division? Find out in our Cleveland Browns betting preview based on the odds from the best sports betting apps.

Few teams had as busy of an offseason as the Cleveland Browns, who are coming off a 7-10 campaign and missed the playoffs for the second straight year.

The Browns brought in defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz to help a unit that struggled to stop the run. Cleveland also added talent at key positions on both sides of the ball, including much-needed receiver depth in Elijah Moore and Marquise Goodwin, and bringing in edge rushers Za’Darius Smith and Ogbo Okoronkwo.

However, none of it will matter if quarterback Deshaun Watson looks like the player he was after returning from a suspension toward the end of the last season. Are we betting on Watson to return to form now? Or does it make more sense to fade this year's Browns?

Check out our 2023 Cleveland Browns betting preview based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

Cleveland Browns betting preview 2023

(Picks made on July 14)

Browns to win Under 9.5 games (-130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Aug. 29)

Well, this is certainly a lofty win total for the Browns given their recent history. Cleveland has recorded only one double-digit victory campaign since 2008, which was its 11-5 season in 2020 when the team's expected record was closer to a .500 clip.

The Browns have finished Under their preseason win total in three of the last four years, including twice in three seasons under head coach Kevin Stefanski. For comparison, the Browns produced a win total of eight in 2022 with the Over juiced to -120.

Based on my power ratings, I'm projecting closer to 8.5 wins for Cleveland this season. That would be an improvement from 2022, and it could put this team in the playoff hunt. But there's value in taking advantage of this Under price at this point in the offseason.

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Browns to miss the playoffs (-120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Aug. 16)

At least one team has won its division after finishing in last place the previous year during 18 of the past 20 seasons The Browns wouldn't be my first pick to keep the streak alive, but they're on the short list of teams capable of such a turnaround.

If the Browns can't win the AFC North, the path to a playoff berth becomes much more difficult. That much is true across the AFC, which is clearly the more competitive conference. The AFC East boasts three playoff contenders, the AFC West features at least two, and the entire AFC North could be in the mix as well.

A good team (or more) won't be making the dance this year.

My bet is that the Browns just miss the cut after being in the mix all season, which actually would be a step in the right direction. My fair price on them to miss the playoffs is closer to -140, but the consensus market value is around the -130 range. We're scooping up this -120 discount at Caesars while it's avaliable.

This ticket will be dead if Watson returns to form and the defense shows plenty of progress. But there might be an opportunity to chase some of the Browns' upside prices if they show any signs of that early in the year.

Myles Garrett to win Defensive Player of the Year (+800 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

It feels long overdue for Myles Garrett to win a Defensive Player of the Year Award, which is why he enters the season as the No. 2 betting favorite behind Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys across the best sports betting sites.

We're happy to bet on Garrett finally claiming the award this year, especially at this +800 price tag when he's listed as short as +600. Garrett is coming off his second consecutive 16-sack season, and he also finished with 26 quarterback hits and 60 total tackles in 2022.

Garrett finished fifth in DPOY voting last year, though Brandon Thorn's advanced metrics suggest he was once again one of the league's best pass rushers. Cleveland's below-.500 record likely played into Garrett's season flying a bit under the radar.

With the Browns making a change at defensive coordinator, as well as adding complementary edge rushers on the other side, we expect Garrett to put together his best counting-stat season yet. And he might finally be rewarded with a trophy.

Nick Chubb Over 8.5 rushing touchdowns (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

With Kareem Hunt no longer in the picture, running back Nick Chubb is set to put up his most productive season. That's saying something because he's arguably the best running back in the NFL after five seasons.

Chubb recorded 12 rushing touchdowns in 2022 and has notched at least eight scores in each of his first five campaigns. He's averaging 0.64 rushing touchdowns per game in his career, including an average of 0.74 scores per contest over the last three seasons. Those averages extrapolate out to 10.88 touchdowns and 12.58 scores, respectively, over a 17-game season.

But there's room for even more production with Chubb's increased red-zone volume. Chubb claimed 42 of the team's 78 red-zone opportunities out of the backfield in 2022, with Hunt earning 33 such chances, according to FootballGuys. Chubb hasn't been given more than 42 red-zone opportunities in a season since 2019, before Hunt entered the fold as a full-time player.

If the Browns do make strides offensively, we expect Chubb to be the most significant beneficiary. But we like this Over even if Cleveland produces another below-average season, especially when the same line is priced as high as 9.5 rushing touchdowns through Caesars.

Editor's note: The best Over on 8.5 rushing touchdowns is now -135 at DraftKings.

Nick Chubb to record the most rushing touchdowns in NFL (+900 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I've already made the argument for why I'm on the Over for Chubb's rushing touchdowns, but there is room for even more upside here.

Chubb is listed as a distant No. 2 favorite to lead the league in rushing touchdowns at DraftKings with a price of +900, trailing Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans and his value of +550. For comparison, the two running backs are listed as co-favorites at +750 in the same market at FanDuel.

Editor's note: The best price on Chubb to lead the league in rushing touchdowns is now +850 at DraftKings.

Since Chubb entered the league in 2018, he and Henry have led the league in the rushing TD department. Henry has notched 68 rushing scores over the last five seasons, while Chubb is second with 48. Henry finished with the second-most rushing touchdowns last year at 13, though Chubb was right behind him with 12.

Not only are we betting on Chubb's role increasing in the red zone, but this is a wager against him staying healthy throughout his age-29 season. The Browns also boast more offensive potential than the Titans, and this +900 ticket can be a great way to capitalize on what could be Chubb's best season.

NFL betting preview

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