NFL Worst to First Picks & Predictions 2023: Who Will Keep the Improbable Streak Alive?

Perhaps the best example of the NFL's parity is the recent streak of teams going from worst to first in their division. But which clubs stand the best chance of continuing that run? Shane Jackson shares his favorite picks, using the latest NFL odds from the best sports betting sites.

Predictions for the upcoming campaign can be a lot of fun at this time in the offseason, but nothing feels more satisfying than calling a team to make a massive jump. And recent history tells us that at least one squad will do just that during the 2023-24 NFL season.

In 18 of the past 20 seasons, at least one team has won its division after finishing in last place the previous year. The Jacksonville Jaguars accomplished the feat in 2022-23, while the Cincinnati Bengals did it in 2021-22 during their run to the Super Bowl.

So we should expect one surprise division winner from a group of eight teams that includes the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, New York Jets, and Washington Commanders.

But who will it be? And how do we make the most money off it? That's what we're trying to figure out.

Here are our favorite NFL worst-to-first predictions for 2023 based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites. 

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NFL division odds 2023

Using the odds from our best sports betting apps, we can give the Jets and Falcons the best chance of continuing the NFL's worst-to-first streak this season. The Bears, Browns, and Broncos are all contenders as well.

The Cardinals, who are the favorites to be the NFL's lowest-scoring team, likely won't be winning the NFC West. We can safely rule them out, but the Texans and Commanders should both be considered long shots.

As the table helps illustrate, Caesars and DraftKings are offering the best division odds among the eight teams capable of making this turnaround. Meanwhile, PointsBet is showing the worst price for a few offseason darlings.

Check out our highest-scoring team pick.

NFL worst-to-first picks

Falcons to win the NFC South (+240 via Caesars)

Atlanta is the team I'm betting on to continue the NFL's worst-to-first streak, which means we obviously need to take the team's division odds. The New Orleans Saints are actually the favorites to win the NFC South, but the Falcons are right behind them.

Fortunately in this case, there's still value in the current number. I used Unabated's season simulator tool and came up with a fair price of +225 on the Falcons to win the division, at least based on my power ratings.

That might not seem like much, but Caesars is offering an outlier number here. Atlanta is listed between +215 and +225 across the board at the best sportsbooks.

New Orleans is probably the most-vulnerable division favorite, so it's easy to make the case against that team. But the Falcons also offer an unknown upside, as second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder could be better than expected.

If Ridder does make strides, the Falcons' offense features plenty of weapons to fully take off. The team selected running back Bijan Robinson at No. 8 overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. Along with Robinson, receiver Drake London (No. 8 pick in 2022) and tight end Kyle Pitts (No. 4 selection in 2021) give head coach Arthur Smith plenty to work with offensively.

The Falcons also spent over $140 million in free agency to bolster their defense this offseason, which included bringing in Calais Campbell and Jessie Bates III.

Consider me all the way in on the Dirty Birds this year.

Arthur Smith to win Coach of the Year (+1700 via FanDuel)

This is my favorite long-shot bet on the Falcons putting together an impressive turnaround. Going from worst-to-first doesn't always guarantee Coach of the Year recognition, but it certainly doesn't hurt.

That's because exceeding expectations plays a huge part in determining who wins Coach of the Year. Nine of the past 11 winners for this award have led their team to double-digit wins, with the exceptions being Bruce Arians in 2012 as an interim head coach and Brian Daboll in 2022-23.

However, none of those coaches were on teams facing a preseason double-digit win total. Mike Vrabel, who won it in 2021, is the only coach in the last 11 seasons whose club was given a preseason win total of 9.5 victories. So we're looking for a team with a total of 8.5 wins or fewer.

The Falcons currently hold a win total of 8.5 with the Over juiced to about -120, so they just fit the threshold. I also think Arthur Smith is underrated, which certainly plays into my belief in Atlanta this year.

Most of all, this +1700 price tag at FanDuel is too tantalizing to pass up. Circa, a sharper book, recently released odds and is trading Smith at +1300 to win Coach of the Year. He's the co-favorite via the Caesars market with a value of +1000.

Smith is my favorite pick for Coach of the Year as we enter July.

Falcons to be the most improved regular-season team (+1800 via DraftKings)

You can find a most improved regular-season team market under the season specials at DraftKings, with the Bears leading the way as +210 favorites after going 3-14 in 2022-23. The Broncos are +425 following a 5-12 campaign, while the Texans went 3-13 and are valued at +700 in this market.

This is definitely a long-shot bet after the Falcons went 7-10 in 2022-23. Atlanta would need to clear the double-digit threshold by a few games to cash this ticket, especially if either the Bears or Texans flirt with .500.

While the Falcons have been given a win total of 8.5 for 2023-24, teams overshoot those marks comfortably all the time. That usually happens when a franchise gets a favorable schedule, which is the case for Atlanta in 2023.

The Falcons rank No. 2 in the league in strength of schedule, according to SharpFootballAnalysis. Only the Saints have been gifted an easier slate, though three NFC South teams rank inside the top four.

The Falcons will open with back-to-back home games against the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers, and both opponents are dealing with a quarterback change this season. A strong start could go a long way toward making this a special campaign for the Falcons, leading to a high finish in the NFC standings.

Let's speak it into existence for this +1800 ticket.

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