Dolphins Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for Miami

The Miami Dolphins are coming off an up-and-down 2022 campaign, but the team should be more consistent this upcoming season. Check out our best Miami Dolphins futures predictions based on the best NFL odds.

Miami finished second in the AFC East in 2022 with a 9-8 record, though it performed much better with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa under center. In the Dolphins' first nine games with Tua as the starting quarterback, they went 8-1. Overall, Miami went 8-5 in games that Tua started, though his play declined toward the end of the season as he continued to battle through injuries.

The hope is the Dolphins have taken this past offseason to prepare Tua for the upcoming campaign, both physically and mentally. They'll need him to protect himself if the Dolphins have any chance of making the playoffs.

Can Tua stay healthy and lead Miami to double-digit wins and an extended playoff run, or is he destined to miss even more games?

Check out our 2023 Miami Dolphins betting preview based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

Miami Dolphins betting preview 2023

Miami Dolphins to win Over 9.5 games (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

This bet really comes down to Tua's health. As previously mentioned, the Dolphins were one of the best teams in the NFL before injuries caught up with their quarterback. Now, entering the 2023-24 season, it's a matter of whether he can make it through 16 or 17 games.

Miami has a relatively tricky schedule to navigate, but there are certainly more than 10 winnable games. I project the best-case scenario to be 12 or 13 wins, with the worst case being seven victories.

The most realistic finish for the Dolphins looks to be a 10-7 record, making this even-money offering from DraftKings solid value.

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Miami Dolphins to win AFC East (+300) ⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

If that "most realistic" result comes to fruition, the Dolphins will have a tough time winning the division with only 10 wins - though I believe the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets will also finish around that number. However, it's Miami's ceiling that I'm betting on.

With a healthy Tua, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and the running back duo of Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr., the Dolphins could very well finish the 2023 campaign as the best offense in football. 

Meanwhile, the defense struggled down the stretch last season but should benefit from another offseason with Mike McDaniel's coaching staff.

As I outlined in our Bills betting preview, I'm betting on Buffalo to finish second in the division. I don't hate a bet on the Jets to win the AFC East, either, but I prefer betting on the Dolphins to do so due to their longer odds and equally high ceiling.

All of DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 offer the same odds on this bet, so you can place it with either one.

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Tua Tagovailoa Over 3,850.5 passing yards (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

Tua managed 3,548 passing yards in just 13 games last season, one of which he left in the second quarter with an injury. If he's able to avoid taking too much punishment, Tua should cruise Over this number. That's a big "if," but a potential injury appears to be baked into the line.

When comparing two separate projection models, we have one that assumes 17 games of health and the other that factors in a missed contest or two. The former, NumberFire, projects Tua to finish with 4460.31 passing yards, the fifth-highest total among all quarterbacks. Meanwhile, ESPN's Mike Clay accounts for two missed games with his projection, but he still has Tua at 3,886 passing yards, enough to clear this total.

Among our best sports betting apps, DraftKings has the highest total, as FanDuel is 50 yards lower and Caesars is 25. However, it's not worth sacrificing 12 to 15 points of value for those small differences, so we'll ride with the even-money offering at DraftKings.

Tyreek Hill to win Offensive Player of the Year (+2000) ⭐⭐⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

It sounds ridiculous to suggest, but perhaps a move away from Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs was an upgrade for Tyreek Hill? Hill managed career highs in targets, catches, and receiving yards, as the Dolphins made it a priority to get him the ball in his first season in Miami.

Some worried about whether Hill's numbers would take a hit with Waddle also requiring plenty of targets. However, Waddle was quite obviously No. 2 in the pecking order, giving us confidence that Hill's numbers could even improve in his second year with the team.

Hill finished fourth in this category last season, with fellow wide receiver Justin Jefferson claiming the award following a 128-catch, 1,809-yard, eight-touchdown campaign. For his part, Hill managed 119 catches, 1,710 receiving yards, and seven receiving scores. It's certainly within the realm of possibility that Hill matches Jefferson's numbers or even closes in on 1,900 yards, which Cooper Kupp managed two years ago.

Hill is trading as the consensus fifth-biggest favorite at our best sports betting sites, behind the likes of Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Nick Chubb. With quarterbacks more or less being removed from the equation due to the fact that a signal-caller almost always wins MVP, the only real threat I see to Hill's chances is Christian McCaffrey. At +2000, we'll back "Cheetah" in this race. 

Dolphins to be highest-scoring regular-season team (+2000 via DraftKings) ⭐

(Odds as of Tuesday, Aug. 29)

The Dolphins finished as the 11th-highest-scoring team in the NFL last season with 397 points. However, there's reason to believe they can finish this year as the top offense in football.

In Tua's first eight full games last season, Miami managed 234 points for an average of 29.25 per contest. The Chiefs led the league in points last season with 496, an average of 29.18 per game.

The Dolphins managed just 16.25 points per game in the four contests Tua sat out last season, and they scored only 15 when he left early against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Additionally, even when Tua was at his worst and obviously dealing with the effects of his injuries, the team averaged 20.75 points per game in its four straight losses from Week 12 to Week 15. That's a relatively safe floor for us to consider when making this bet.

Miami is listed as the 11th-biggest favorite at DraftKings, which represents how the team performed last year and not how it could in 2023 if it reaches its full potential.

NFL betting preview

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