Commanders Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for Washington

In a division filled with savvy veteran quarterbacks, the Washington Commanders will be leaning on an unproven second-year signal caller to buck the odds. Can Sam Howell deliver? We offer our take in our annual Commanders betting preview.

Few teams in 2022 did more with less in than the Washington Commanders – but repeating that feat could prove to be an incredibly tall task.

The Commanders patched together an incredible – but ultimately futile – run to a postseason spot despite losing their starting quarterback in Week 6, producing just one 100-yard rushing effort all season and failing to score more than 30 points in a game until Week 10.

Full seasons from running back Brian Robinson Jr. and wideout Jahan Dotson, along with some positive touchdown regression from star receiver Terry McLaurin, should help give Washington a decent shot at improving upon its 8-8-1 mark from last season. But this team's fate really comes down to whether Sam Howell can upgrade an offense that averaged just 18.9 points in 2022.

Check out our 2023 Commanders betting preview based on the odds from our best NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale). 

Commanders betting preview 2023

Commanders to win Under 6.5 games (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

(Odds updated Friday, Aug. 25 at 2:30 p.m. ET)

This not the kind of schedule you want when you're relying on three second-year players to form the majority of your starting offense: in addition to four games against the powerhouse Eagles and Cowboys, the Commanders will face the NFC West and AFC East.

That's eight games against teams currently holding top-10 spots in the Super Bowl odds picture. And with a season-ending gauntlet featuring road games vs. the Cowboys, Rams and Jets, and home dates with the Dolphins, 49ers and Cowboys, you're going to have a difficult time counting on late-season victories pushing up that team win total.

BetMGM presently offers the best value here on the U6.5, but I'm more interested in an alt U5.5 depending on whether the sportsbook you use is offering it. BetMGM and DraftKings both have the Commanders U5.5 at +150, slightly ahead of bet365's +145 and FanDuel's +135.

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Commanders to finish last in NFC East (-160 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Given how dominant the Eagles and Cowboys are expected to be this season, this pick really comes down to whether I believe the New York Giants will be better. And I do: Brian Daboll's impact on the team in Year 1 of his head coaching tenure was immense, and the addition of tight end Darren Waller, combined with some much needed defensive line depth, will only help.

Meanwhile, there just aren't many easy wins on the Commanders' schedule, especially if they continue to struggle running the football. Both of their primary running backs – Robinson and Antonio Gibson – averaged fewer than four yards per carry, and the Commanders produced just nine rushing scores all season, fourth-fewest in the league.

A competent ground game will be a must if the Commanders hope to protect Howell, who comes into the season with just 19 passes on his professional resume. Washington surrendered the seventh-most sacks in the NFL in 2022 – and while Howell proved to be a capable rusher (and human pinball) in his final year at North Carolina, asking him to duplicate that success while under duress against skilled NFL defenses is a lot.

DraftKings was offering this at -115 in early August, but that line is long gone; thankfully, those of you looking for decent odds on this play can still go to bet365 (if it's available in your area).

Terry McLaurin Over 4.5 receiving touchdowns (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

McLaurin is part of a rather exclusive club: the soon-to-be 28-year-old is one of only 10 players to rack up more than 3,300 combined receiving yards over the previous three seasons.

Most NFL Receiving Yards, 2020-22

Not only does McLaurin have the fewest receiving touchdowns of the group, the other nine average more than double his total (28.9).

McLaurin's 11 red-zone targets led the Commanders in 2022, but ranked outside the top-50 overall; he had just nine the previous season. Given that Washington has ranked 24th and 26th, respectively, in red-zone scoring rate the past two seasons, perhaps it wouldn't be the worst idea to get him more involved inside the opponents' 20-yard line.

I'm banking on Howell looking for McLaurin early and often; the two connected on a red-zone touchdown in Howell's only start of 2022, a 26-6 win over Dallas in Week 18. And even having underperformed from a touchdown perspective three straight seasons, McLaurin has had five-plus TDs in three of his first four NFL campaigns.

I like his chances of getting there again, even without a big boost in targets. And with FanDuel offering this prop at slightly worse than coin-flip odds, it feels like a good investment.

Brian Robinson Jr. Over 750.5 rushing yards (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

For all of my doom and gloom regarding Washington's moribund running game, I still think this is one of the most mispriced season player props at DraftKings.

You might peruse the 2022 season stats and see that Robinson (205) and Gibson (149) saw a carry split that finished a little too close to even. But Robinson missed the first four weeks of the season as he recovered from a gunshot to the leg (it's still unfathomable, by the way, that he recovered so quickly) – and once he hit his stride, this backfield was his.

Robinson racked up the third-most carries of any NFL running back from Week 9 to 17 (he didn't play in the finale) – and as much as I'd like to see the Commanders lean more on the passing game, head coach Ron Rivera isn't suddenly going to morph into Andy Reid. He's a smashmouth kind of guy, and Robinson is going to be at the core of that offensive approach.

FantasyPros' consensus of six notable projection sites has Robinson finishing with 943.7 rushing yards in 2023, and even that might be conservative given how extensively Robinson was used down the stretch (even in games where the Commanders were down big). He might only get there 3.7 yards at a time, but O750.5 (+130) is a gift here.

Commanders Under 2.5 division wins (-160 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

You won't find a more fitting team prop, given that the Commanders literally finished with "2.5 division wins" last year (victories over Philadelphia and Dallas and a tie vs. the Giants).

I don't have much faith in Washington meeting or surpassing that win target in 2023.

The Eagles and Cowboys boast high-powered offenses led by established quarterbacks. If Howell can't keep Washington's offensive skill players on the field, those could be rough games. And while the Giants are a tier below Philadelphia and Dallas, they have bolstered their run defense and have their own impact sophomore in 2022 first-round pick Kayvon Thibodeaux.

I could see the Commanders stealing a division win from somewhere – but three? Against these guys? I'm not buying it.

(All picks and confidence levels as of August 11.)

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