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A.J. Brown NFL Player Props, Odds Monday Night Football: Predictions for Eagles vs. Chiefs

Mike Spector

Last Updated: November 20, 2023 6:05 PM EST • 4 min 59 sec read.

A.J. Brown and the Philadelphia Eagles face the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in a meeting of the top two teams in each conference and a Super Bowl LVII rematch, and we have you covered with our A.J. Brown player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.

The Philadelphia Eagles have made a significant mark by becoming the first team since the 2005-06 Indianapolis Colts to start consecutive seasons with an 8-1 or better record. Their recent 28-23 triumph over the Dallas Cowboys at home in Week 9 extended their home winning streak to seven games, including playoffs.

Notably, the Eagles have achieved a perfect 3-0 record against NFC East rivals for the first time since 2017. Despite their success, a notable aspect is that six out of their eight wins this season have been by nine points or fewer, highlighting their ability to secure close victories in tightly contested matchups.

The Kansas City Chiefs improved to 7-2 with a 21-14 Week 9 win against the Miami Dolphins in Frankfurt, Germany. The win was Andy Reid’s 124th, which tied him with Hank Stram for the most regular season wins by a Chiefs head coach. The Chiefs improved to 9-0 in its last nine games following a regular season loss since 2021. In addition, Patrick Mahomes has won 24 of his 30 starts on eight-plus days of rest.

For all of our best picks in this Super Bowl rematch, check out our Eagles vs. Chiefs player props, Eagles vs. Chiefs expert picks, Jalen Hurts player props, Patrick Mahomes player props, Travis Kelce player props, and Eagles vs. Chiefs parlay ahead of kickoff.

Make sure to take in our Eagles vs. Chiefs prediction to go along with our best A.J. Brown NFL player prop predictions for the Eagles vs. Chiefs Week 11 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

A.J. Brown NFL player prop predictions for Week 11

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A.J. Brown player props

A.J. Brown Under 86.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

A.J. Brown had an Eagles franchise record of 1,496 receiving yards in his first season with the team, and he teamed up with quarterback Jalen Hurts for the most completions of 25-plus yards downfield (11) of any quarterback-wide receiver combination. When targeting Brown, Hurts had a 61.5% completion percentage and a blistering 11-2 TD-INT ratio.

Brown made history this season with an NFL-record six consecutive games of 125-plus yards receiving. That streak ended before the bye week in the game against the Dallas Cowboys, as Brown was limited to 66 yards on seven receptions. While Brown has averaged 111.7 receiving yards per game this year, he is likely to go well under that projection, given that Kansas City has allowed just two players to top 100 receiving yards. 

This is a four-star play, as the Chiefs are coming off limiting the NFL’s leading receiver, Tyreek Hill, to 62 yards, with his longest reception going for 19 yards. And with a whole week to prepare for Philadelphia’s offense and a Super Bowl’s worth of game tape to sift through, we expect the Kansas City coaching staff to make Brown a focal point of the game plan and limit his production.

We are still backing this Under even though the line has come down from an opening number of 90.5 at most of our best sports betting apps, and bet365 is the only one of our top sportsbooks charging less than -114 odds to back the Under.

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Eagles vs. Chiefs bonus codes

A.J. Brown anytime touchdown scorer (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Brown has scored four touchdowns over the previous three games and at least one touchdown in four of six. Even if the Chiefs do a good job taking his explosive plays away for much of their defensive possessions, Brown is one of the most physically gifted receivers in the sport and should get his share of red zone looks. For example, we can envision scenarios where a back-shoulder fade is called in short yardage, especially since Brown excels against man coverage.

Per Sharp Football Analysis, Brown leads the NFL with a 48.1% target share against man coverage and has averaged 3.88 yards per route run in that split. Thus, there are ways for the Eagles to get Brown across the goal line even if he is bottled up more than usual in other areas of the field.

With Brown’s anytime touchdown odds as low as +115 at BetMGM, the +150 price at bet365 seems like a steal, so use our bet365 bonus code, SBRBONUS, to take advantage.

A.J. Brown Under 6.5 receptions (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

This is undoubtedly a curious line, as Brown has recorded seven or more receptions in four consecutive games and seven of nine this season. Next Gen Stats certainly makes the case for Brown to be flooded with targets, as he has an NFL-high +292 receiving yards over expected and is on pace to be the first player since 2016 (the inception of Next Gen Stats) to lead the NFL in recYOE, yards after the catch over expected, and receptions over expected. 

However, this projected number also suggests oddsmakers know a quiet day is coming, and it could be because Kansas City will do a good job playing keep-away from the Eagles offense. The Chiefs are averaging a league-high 7.6 yards per play on third down, per Sharp Football Analysis, and they are also allowing a league-low 3.0 yards per play on third down, which suggests the time of possession battle could tilt in their favor.

We are taking advantage of the competitive -105 odds at BetMGM, as all of our other best sports betting sites are at -110 or higher to back the Under.

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A.J. Brown player prop picks made 11/20/2023 at 6:13 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”