The Kansas City Chiefs will host to the Philadelphia Eagles in a rematch of Super Bowl LVII on Monday Night Football in Week 11, as we make our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Before the Kansas City Chiefs’ bye week, quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw two touchdowns against the Miami Dolphins but managed only 185 yards. In his outing before that one, Mahomes threw for 240 yards, but he finished with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Despite the mixed bag in recent weeks, the Chiefs' signal-caller remains amongst the favorites to capture the 2023 NFL MVP.
Mahomes is averaging 271.3 passing yards per game, and now he'll oppose an Eagles defense that ranks 29th in the NFL in passing yards give up per contest.
Do you want all of our picks for Monday Night Football? Check out our Eagles vs. Chiefs player props, Eagles vs. Chiefs expert picks, Jalen Hurts player props, A.J. Brown player props, Travis Kelce player props, and Eagles vs. Chiefs parlay ahead of kickoff.
Make sure to check out our Eagles vs. Chiefs prediction to go along with our best Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for the Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs Week 11 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Patrick Mahomes NFL player prop predictions for Week 11
- Patrick Mahomes Over 283.5 passing yards (-109 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes Over 38.5 passing attempts (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Patrick Mahomes 3-plus touchdown passes (+200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
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Patrick Mahomes player props
Patrick Mahomes Over 283.5 passing yards (-109 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Mahomes finished with his lowest passing yardage total of the season during the last time we all thought he'd be involved in a shootout. But his team still led 21-0 at halftime, so much wasn’t asked of Mahomes in the second half.
Monday's matchup should be close throughout, and though the Chiefs’ defense can frustrate Jalen Hurts and his offense, there are very few scenarios where the Chiefs take their foot off the gas in this game. The Eagles’ run defense has been outstanding this season, so for the Chiefs to move the ball, they need to throw. The Eagles allow 257.0 passing yards per game, including 306.7 in their last three. Mahomes has thrown for 300 yards three times this season and will top his season average again against the Eagles.
Four of our best sports betting apps listed this prop at 283.5, while FanDuel listed it at 284.5. Of all the sportsbooks with the lower total listed, Caesars is offering the best price for the over, as they’re the only sportsbook favoring the under tonight
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Patrick Mahomes Over 38.5 passing attempts (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Mahomes has thrown 38 or more passes in four of his last five games. Though he’s coming off a 30-attempt game, sportsbooks are not concerned with that type of performance in back-to-back contests.
Though the Eagles’ pass defense has struggled this season, they’re 12th in the league in yards allowed per completion. Therefore, achieving any huge plays will be hard for Mahomes and his offense. Just because they won’t be picking up chunk plays doesn’t mean the Chiefs won’t keep throwing the ball. Throwing is how you beat the Eagles, and the Chiefs will take what they can get with each dropback.
As for where to wager, DraftKings and BetMGM offer -110 for the over. FanDuel has the line listed at 37.5, but they’re asking -118 for the over. It’s not worth getting the extra attempt for a much more expensive price.
Patrick Mahomes 3-plus touchdown passes (+200 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Not only have the Eagles had trouble stopping teams from moving the ball on them through the air, but they’ve also had trouble stopping them from getting in the end zone. The Eagles are 31st in the NFL, allowing 2.1 touchdown passes per game. In their last three games, they’re allowing an average of 2.7 per game and an average of 2.3 per contest in road games.
Mahomes has thrown for more than two touchdowns twice this season and only once in his last six games. But the Eagles have been giving up touchdown passes to everyone, and we always want to take Mahomes above what the rest of the league is averaging.
Mahomes’ touchdown prop is set at 1.5 at our best sports betting sites. However, they’re each asking at least -210 for the over. It’s unlikely he goes under that number tonight, but a price of -210 is far too expensive. Shop around for this prop. Caesars has it listed at just +170, while bet365 is offering +185. FanDuel currently provides the best price, but that could change before kickoff.
Patrick Mahomes player prop picks made 11/20/2023 at 9:28 a.m. ET.
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