NFL Upset Picks, Predictions for Week 12: Chargers’ Tough Luck Turns
After experiencing five of their six losses this year by a field goal or less, the Los Angeles Chargers present an intriguing underdog opportunity at home against the Baltimore Ravens this week, making them our NFL upset pick for Week 12, guided by the best NFL odds from our best sportsbooks.
Excluding the four games scheduled for Thursday and Friday, not many significant underdogs are featured on the NFL Week 12 betting card. The only game on Sunday or Monday with a spread higher than four points is the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders.
Still, we’ve identified three solid plus-money betting opportunities in Week 12, including a heavyweight bout between the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles and the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers.
Check out our NFL Week 12 predictions and NFL Week 12 player props to accompany our best NFL upset picks for Week 12 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL upset picks: Week 12
- Cleveland Browns (+115 via bet365) vs. Denver Broncos ⭐⭐⭐
- Buffalo Bills (+150 via bet365) vs. Philadelphia Eagles ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Los Angeles Chargers (+168 via FanDuel) vs. Baltimore Ravens ⭐⭐⭐
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NFL upset predictions
Browns ML vs. Broncos (+115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Oddsmakers continue to underestimate the 7-3 Cleveland Browns, making them underdogs for the sixth time in 11 games this season. Some of that disrespect is due to the absence of starting quarterback Deshaun Watson, who is out for the season with a shoulder injury, but most of Cleveland’s success this year has come with a backup quarterback at the helm. Last week, rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson drove the Browns to a late game-winning field goal in his first career start.
Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos’ stunning midseason turnaround continued last week with a 21-20 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, Denver’s fourth straight victory after a 1-4 start.
However, three of those four wins have come by two points or less, and the Broncos have benefited from an unsustainably high plus-11 turnover ratio during that span. Russell Wilson and the offense haven’t scored more than 24 points in any of their last six games.
The difference-maker in this contest should be Cleveland’s third-ranked ground attack going up against a Denver defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing yards and rushing yards per attempt allowed.
bet365 was the clear top choice to bet the Browns, offering +115 while most of our other best sports betting apps are listing Cleveland at +105. I’ll happily take any plus-money price in a game when the Browns should be favored.
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Bills ML vs. Eagles (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
After a frustrating 2-4 stretch that included losses to the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, the 6-5 Buffalo Bills hope they’ve righted the ship with last week’s 32-6 blowout of the New York Jets (the Bills’ first cover in seven games).
Buffalo managed to limit the turnovers that have plagued the Bills over the past two months, giving the ball away just once in Joe Brady’s debut as the team’s new offensive coordinator.
If the Bills can play another clean game offensively, they’ve got more than enough firepower to hang with the Philadelphia Eagles. Even though Philly is 9-1 and coming off a 21-17 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs, Jalen Hurts doesn’t look like himself right now, throwing for just 357 yards over the Eagles’ last two games.
Philadelphia’s run defense allowed 168 yards Monday against the Chiefs, and the Eagles likely would have lost if not for Kansas City committing a couple of uncharacteristic turnovers and dropping a would-be touchdown pass in the dying minutes.
This is also an extremely tough situational spot for the Eagles, hosting a non-conference opponent on a short week following statement victories over the Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys, with dates with the San Francisco 49ers and Cowboys on deck.
Buffalo should be the hungrier and more motivated team in this one, making the potential +150 return with a preseason Super Bowl favorite too much to pass up.
Chargers ML vs. Ravens (+168 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
It’s do-or-die time for the 4-6 Los Angeles Chargers, who enter Week 12 behind five other teams in the race for an AFC wild-card spot. That losing record is both unfortunate and misleading, as five of the Bolts’ six losses this year have come by a field goal or less, including last week’s 23-20 road defeat to the Green Bay Packers.
The 8-3 Baltimore Ravens maintained their lead in the AFC North with last Thursday’s 34-20 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, the Ravens’ fifth win in their last six games. However, Baltimore’s Super Bowl hopes took a huge hit with the loss of star tight end Mark Andrews, Lamar Jackson’s favorite weapon in the passing game.
Andrews’ absence is huge for a Chargers defense that has been vulnerable against the pass but decent against the run, allowing just four yards per carry. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert has thrown nine touchdowns and just one interception in his last four starts, and he should be able to move the chains against a Baltimore defense that looked shaky until Joe Burrow exited last week’s game with an injury. At these odds, I’ll take my chances on one of these close games finally going the Chargers’ way.
Our Mike Spector also likes the home team in his favorite Ravens vs. Chargers prediction for Sunday Night Football.
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NFL upset picks made 11/22/2023 at 4:15 p.m. ET.
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