NFL Player Props & Best Bets Week 12: Will Bills Take Advantage of Philadelphia's Short Week?
With a 12-game weekend slate, the Thanksgiving leftovers bring NFL fans a feast, and we present our top NFL player props and best bets for Week 12, grounded in the leading NFL odds from our best sportsbooks.
Two of the eight divisions will have first place on the line in the remaining 12 NFL games to be played over the weekend and Monday night.
With a 4-6 record, the Atlanta Falcons host the 5-5 New Orleans Saints, aiming to tie for first place in the NFC South. Meanwhile, the 6-4 Houston Texans, enjoying a remarkable season, seek to join the 7-3 Jacksonville Jaguars at the top of the AFC South.
Additionally, the Philadelphia Eagles, hosting the Buffalo Bills, face off in a matchup between two of the most notable preseason favorites by the Super Bowl odds.
To accompany our NFL predictions for Week 12, here are our NFL player props and best bets and NFL picks for Week 12 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL best bets: Week 12
- Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Colts (+120 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Amari Cooper Under 43.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Falcons ML vs. Saints (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Bills +3.5 vs. Eagles (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Week 12 NFL schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons (-1)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
- New England Patriots (-3.5) vs. New York Giants
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) vs. Houston Texans
- Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos (-1.5)
- Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
- Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
NFL player props for Week 12
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Colts (+120 via DraftKings, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Indianapolis Colts are coming off a bye and look to continue their defensive improvement that led to them allowing just 9.5 points per contest during a two-game winning streak. However, those performances came against Bryce Young and the combination of Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. That's why we predict Indianapolis will revert back to its old poor defensive form before the winning streak.
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The Colts allowed 511 total yards to the New Orleans Saints before their winning streak, the most from New Orleans during a single game since 2020. Indianapolis had allowed 38.0 points per game during a three-game losing streak, and its 35-plus points given up in three consecutive games matched the team’s longest streak of the Super Bowl era.
Mayfield now faces a Colts defense that plays man coverage at the lowest rate in the league. That should boost his numbers, as he ranks 28th in completion percentage against man coverage and in the top 10 in completion percentage and passer rating against Cover-3, according to Sharp Football Analysis.
The Colts have allowed multiple touchdown passes four times in 2023, so we're getting good value with the +120 odds at DraftKings and bet365, especially since Caesars is much lower at +108.
Amari Cooper Under 43.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cleveland Browns quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson came through in crunch time during his first NFL victory, going 4-for-5 passing for 39 yards (his only incompletion came on a spike) throughout the team’s game-winning field-goal drive in Week 11. However, Cleveland’s offensive ceiling is much lower without Deshaun Watson, as the team is 2-2 and averages fewer than 14 points per game with him sidelined.
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Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos boast one of the league’s best shutdown cornerbacks in Patrick Surtain. In coverage against the other team’s top receiving option, Surtain has held Davante Adams, Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson, Travis Kelce (twice), and Stefon Diggs all under 20 receiving yards.
This is a four-star play, as Denver is riding a four-game Under streak, and Cleveland’s games average a league-low 326.8 combined passing yards per game, according to Sharp Football Analysis. Cooper has been held to 34 or fewer receiving yards in two of the team's four games without Watson, and we expect Surtain and the rest of the Broncos' secondary to blanket him again.
bet365 is alone among our best sports betting sites while charging less than -115 in juice to back the Under.
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NFL game picks for Week 12
Falcons ML vs. Saints (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Atlanta Falcons are going back to Desmond Ridder as their starting quarterback. The timing is outstanding because they're playing at home. Ridder lost his first career home game back in Week 6 after going 26-0 at home in college and winning his first five NFL home starts.
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Atlanta will get an excellent chance to win if the Falcons receive a clean game from Ridder, who's logged 12 total turnovers in 2023 (six interceptions and six lost fumbles). New Orleans thrives on turnovers and short fields, as the team's 18 drives that have started in the opponent's territory are a league high. However, the Saints are averaging just 1.54 points per possession (24th) when starting on their side of the field (ranks 24th), according to Sharp Football Analysis.
The Falcons rank sixth in defensive success rate, so New Orleans doesn't boast the only talented defense on the field. We also don't trust the Saints’ quarterback situation, regardless of whether it's Derek Carr or Jameis Winston under center. New Orleans has registered four one-possession losses in 2023, and we expect Atlanta to hand it a fifth.
BetMGM is our go-to shop because all of our other best live betting sites are posting Atlanta’s moneyline odds at -110 or higher.
Bills +3.5 vs. Eagles (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Philadelphia Eagles are now the NFL's only one-loss team, but their plus-61 point differential is lower than the Buffalo Bills’ plus-104 differential. That speaks to how dominant the Bills can be when their offense is flying high.
The first game with Joe Brady as the play-caller was successful, with the Bills scoring 32 points against the New York Jets, the most New York has allowed in 2023. Buffalo enters this game in the top two leaguewide in rushing and passing success rate, and we're grabbing anything more than a field goal with Philadelphia coming off short rest and an emotional Super Bowl-avenging victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night.
Entering Week 11, Jalen Hurts’ splits with tight end Dallas Goedert on and off the field were egregious. Hurts and the Eagles ran 378 plays with Goedert healthy, and the signal-caller completed 71% of his pass attempts for 8.1 yards per attempt and a 71 total QBR. When Goedert was off the field for 37 plays, Hurts’ completion percentage dropped to 50%, and he averaged 3.8 yards per attempt for a 24 total QBR.
This is a four-star play, as the Eagles ranked 21st in yards per rush prior to Week 11, 25th in rushing yards over expectation, and 31st in rushing yards after contact. We therefore expect a banged-up Bills defense to hold up, and a rejuvenated offense will keep them in the game and at least cover a field goal, if not win outright.
Of all of our best sportsbooks are offering +3.5, with several at +3. Caesars is the only one charging a price lower than -118 to back the underdogs.
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NFL best bets made 11/23/2023 at 8:31 a.m. ET.
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