We're offering our best Deebo Samuel Super Bowl player prop predictions based on the NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites as his San Francisco 49ers take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2020 Super Bowl.
Four years after Deebo Samuel broke out in Super Bowl LIV, he is one of seven starters remaining for the San Francisco 49ers as they look to avenge that loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 Super Bowl on Sunday.
Samuel was just a rookie in that 2020 title game, though he still showed out with 53 rushing yards while leading the team with nine targets and five receptions, albeit for just 39 yards. What will he have in store for an encore in Sunday's rematch?
To accompany our Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction and other Super Bowl predictions, here are our best Deebo Samuel Super Bowl player props for 49ers vs. Chiefs (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
- Deebo Samuel to have first reception of 20+ yards (+600 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Deebo Samuel 6+ receptions (+152 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Deebo Samuel to win Super Bowl MVP (+2500 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
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Deebo Samuel player prop predictions
DraftKings has Deebo Samuel with the fourth-highest odds to be the first player with a reception of 20 or more yards, behind Brandon Aiyuk (+350), Rashee Rice (+475), and Travis Kelce (+550). Patrick Mahomes is coming off his second-lowest yards per attempt average (6.2) in his playoff career, so we are ruling out all Chiefs receivers from this wager against San Francisco’s four-man rush with zone coverage behind.
Instead, we are more interested in a San Francisco receiver breaking a big play against an aggressive Chiefs defense that blitzes at the sixth-highest rate (36.3% in the league).
Samuel faces a Kansas City defense that leads the league in two-high safety looks. Per 4For4Football’s Connor Allen, Samuel’s 27.2% target share against two-high looks in the 11 games he played with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle this year led the team. Samuel has at least one reception of 20-plus yards in six of the last 10 games, so this is an excellent value play that he will be the first to record such a catch in this game.
FanDuel has Samuel as a +128 underdog to be the first to reach 50-plus receiving yards between him and Aiyuk, and a +140 underdog to do so in his head-to-head matchup with Rice. However, even if those other two receivers see more volume than Samuel, we expect Deebo to break off the first explosive play.
Be sure to check out our other top receiving props, as well.
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Deebo Samuel to record six-plus receptions (+152 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Samuel has recorded six or more receptions in three of the last nine games, but he is coming off an eight-catch performance (on nine targets) in the NFC Championship Game, and we expect head coach Kyle Shanahan to put his playmaker in positions to avoid Kansas City’s best coverage cornerbacks.
NFL senior researcher Tony Holzman-Escareno highlighted that Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed allowed the lowest completion percentage (49%), second-lowest yards per target (5.3), and second-lowest passer rating (60.1) among all players who saw a minimum of 80 targets.
Though Sneed does not shadow opposing No. 1 receivers, we expect him to line up opposite Brandon Aiyuk most in this matchup, which should free up Samuel to attack the weaker parts of Kansas City’s secondary.
This is a four-star play, as Samuel’s 22.8% target share led the team in the 11 games that he, Aiyuk, and George Kittle were healthy for, and we expect him to end the season in much the same way he started, with six-plus catches in two of the first three games.
Caesars has a price of +121 for Samuel’s six-plus alternate receptions line, so the much better value can be had at FanDuel. And considering Caesars has steep -175 odds to back Samuel to record at least five catches, the +152 odds at FanDuel for one more catch make those odds seem like a steal.
If I am backing one player besides the quarterbacks to win Super Bowl MVP, it is Deebo Samuel, who can contribute not just in the passing game but rushing out of the backfield, as well.
There is precedent for wide receivers winning Super Bowl MVP, doing so twice in the last five seasons (Julian Edelman and Cooper Kupp). In addition, five of the previous seven non-quarterbacks to win Super Bowl MVPs have been wide receivers, including all five who were offensive players (Malcolm Smith and Von Miller won Super Bowl MVP as defensive players).
If Samuel can contribute a rushing touchdown (which he did in five games this season) in addition to finding the end zone through the air, it will be hard for teammates like Brock Purdy or Christian McCaffrey to stake their claim as the most valuable player.
Caesars' and BetMGM's +2500 odds trump the +2000 odds offered at DraftKings and FanDuel, and with Samuel listed as having the fifth-best Super Bowl MVP odds (+950) to score two-plus touchdowns at DraftKings, it is not out of the realm of possibility that he garners MVP consideration.
The 49ers are as high as -130 moneyline favorites across several of our best sports betting sites, so taking a flier on Samuel instead of Purdy to win Super Bowl MVP is worth the investment.
For more on this market, check out our Super Bowl MVP predictions.
If you think both Samuel and Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce will have a monster game, be sure to use our exclusive bet365 bonus code: SBRBONUS and get boosted odds to +1400 for each player to have 75-plus receiving yards and one touchdown!
Deebo Samuel player prop picks made Friday at 6:35 a.m. ET.
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