Super Bowl MVP Predictions 2024: Mahomes Favorite to Repeat as Winner

The Kansas City Chiefs clash with the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl on Sunday, and we make our Super Bowl MVP predictions based on the best NFL odds.

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson was crowned the NFL MVP for the 2023-24 regular season, but he's at home this week while the man who beat him in the AFC Championship, Patrick Mahomes, is the favorite by the 2024 Super Bowl MVP odds.

Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas plays to host an eagerly awaited Super Bowl rematch between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs, reminiscent of their clash in Super Bowl LIV. The upcoming game is expected to be a thrilling spectacle, pitting the favored 49ers against the reigning champions.

In the last seven Super Bowls, offensive players - specifically, five quarterbacks and two wide receivers - have secured the MVP awards. Terrell Davis, in Super Bowl XXXIII, stands as the most recent running back to claim this title, hinting at the potential challenge for 49ers star running back Christian McCaffrey.

After looking at our Super Bowl odds, Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction, and other Super Bowl predictions, here are our Super Bowl MVP predictions and NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

2024 Super Bowl MVP predictions

• Patrick Mahomes (+135 via Caesars)
• Deebo Samuel (+3500 via BetMGM)
• L’Jarius Sneed (+25000 via BetMGM)

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Super Bowl MVP 2024 odds

(Super Bowl MVP odds as of Feb. 11)

Who will be the Super Bowl MVP?

Patrick Mahomes (+135 via Caesars)

If the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, then it is very likely that Mahomes will take home the Super Bowl MVP trophy. He has been named the MVP in both of the Chiefs’ Super Bowl wins with him under center, and he won it last year despite throwing for just 182 yards.

For a wide receiver or tight end to win this award, they would need to be the primary target and score multiple touchdowns, as Los Angeles Rams wideout Cooper Kupp did two years ago. While Mahomes may throw the ball non-stop to Travis Kelce, the tight end has not yet put up MVP-type numbers this season.

What’s most interesting about Mahomes being the favorite is that the Chiefs are underdogs. The winning team has had the MVP in all but one Super Bowl, and that was Super Bowl V. If you agree with oddsmakers and believe the 49ers should be favored, then consider backing McCaffrey to be MVP. Though QB Brock Purdy has shorter odds than him, McCaffrey is our pick for most likely MVP if the 49ers win.

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Deebo Samuel (+3500 via BetMGM)

If there is a wide receiver in this game who can put up incredible numbers and steal the MVP award, it’s Samuel. After suffering an injury against the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round, Samuel caught eight passes for 89 yards against the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship.

Samuel's ability to score through the air and on the ground makes him so dangerous. He finished the regular season with 12 touchdowns, five of which were rushing scores. 

The Chiefs have one of the best secondaries in football, and they’ve looked phenomenal in each of their three playoff games. But if the 49ers are going to win this game, they’re going to need production from someone other than McCaffrey. There is some value in these odds for their dual-threat wideout to be the one who gets it done — especially if Purdy turns the ball over once or twice.

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L’Jarius Sneed (+25000 via BetMGM)

A cornerback hasn’t won Super Bowl MVP since Dexter Jackson won it with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl XXXVII. But Sneed has a legitimate shot this year.

Purdy has had three multiple-interception games this season. Last week, he threw one interception against the Lions, and he had numerous errant throws that could have resulted in turnovers.

Sneed hasn’t had an interception since the Chiefs played the Philadelphia Eagles on November 20th. Yet, he still finished the year leading the Chiefs in picks. If this is a low-scoring game, which is possible with how good the Chiefs’ defense has been and how their offense has struggled this season, then a defensive player may win this. If one does, the best cornerback on the better defense is our pick.

Shopping around our best sportsbooks results in a top value at BetMGM.

Recent Super Bowl MVP winners

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