Bills vs. Vikings Prediction: Week 9 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Nov. 9)
A pair of first-place teams square off on Monday Night Football in Week 9, and I'm backing Brian Flores and Co. to keep things tight in my Bills vs. Vikings prediction.
The Bills are a 3-point betting favorite despite an extensive list of injury concerns. While I'm leaning toward the Bills escaping with their seventh victory of the season, I expect the Vikings' defense to showcase why it's so highly vaunted. Kickoff from U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis is set for 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC).
Bills vs. Vikings picks & predictions
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 9 based on the latest NFL odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Vikings +3 | -105 via BetMGM | 1 unit to profit 0.95 units |
| Under 44.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1 unit to profit 0.91 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 2 units | Profit if all picks win: 1.86 units
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Bills vs. Vikings prediction & best bet
Vikings +3 (-105)
While it's tempting to back Josh Allen and the Bills' high-powered, top-scoring offense, I'm taking the home underdogs and their extraordinary defense at the key number of +3.
The Vikings have the best scoring defense, allowing 13.3 points per game, the best defensive pass DVOA, and the second-best EPA per play. The Green Bay Packers are the only team to score more than 20 points against Flores' crew, and that 22-point output occurred in Week 1.
The Bills' comparatively poor defense, which ranks 23rd in scoring, 20th in DVOA, and 26th in EPA per play, is unlikely to make enough stops, even against Carson Wentz and the Vikings' 30th-ranked offensive DVOA, to gain separation.
📡 SBR Edge - Vikings' blitz-heavy defense
The Vikings blitz at an astonishing rate of 69.1%, 32.5% more than any other team, and the Bills have disconcerting offensive line personnel issues.
Bills' offensive line concerns
Buffalo's injury report has swollen to 21 players, with the most worrying issues on the offensive line and in the receiver room. Left tackle Dion Dawkins and offensive lineman Alec Anderson both missed Thursday and Friday's practices, while right tackle Greg Gaines didn't feature on Friday.
Any kinks in the armor could be decisive against Flores' relentless blitz-heavy defense.
Allen is pressured at the sixth-lowest percentage (19%), so we'll see how he reacts to Flores' forthcoming flurry. With injuries to his receiving corps, Allen will have a much tougher evening trying to accumulate points.
Score prediction: Bills 23, Vikings 21
Live Bills vs. Vikings odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Bills vs. Vikings page.
Bills vs. Vikings opening odds
- Moneyline: Bills (-150) | Vikings (+125)
- Spread: Bills -3 (-105) | Vikings +3 (-112)
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-108) | Under 46.5 (-110)
Bills vs. Vikings weather
U.S. Bank Stadium is a dome stadium and will not be affected by weather.
Latest Bills vs. Vikings injuries
How to watch Bills vs. Vikings: Week 9
- Date: Monday, Nov. 9
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis)
- TV/Streaming: ESPN/ABC
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