NFL Player Props Week 2: Predictions, Picks for Monday
Sportsbook Review's betting analysts, Jon Metler and Neil Parker, are sharing their top NFL player props for Week 2 of the NFL season, with these picks based on the NFL odds from our best NFL prop betting sites.
We have 15 games remaining in our Week 2 predictions, and we've identified a collection of NFL player props for prospective bettors to focus on.
In particular, we're keeping an eye on a pair of Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are set to take advantage of a home game against the Chicago Bears.
Tampa quarterback Baker Mayfield led the Bucs to a comeback win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1, and we’re looking for the first-year pirate to have success airing it out against the Bears.
We've also included Buccaneers running back Rachaad White in the Week 2 portfolio, anticipating that he will capitalize on the ground against the Chicago defense.
Our best NFL player props for Sunday are the perfect complement our NFL best bets for Week 2, NFL upset picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 2
- Bryce Young Over 189.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Calvin Ridley Over 5.5 receptions (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Baker Mayfield Over 221.5 passing yards (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
- Rachaad White Over 53.5 rushing yards (-101 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
- Christian McCaffrey Over 28.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Michael Gallup Over 34.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
- Kirk Cousins Under 263.5 passing yards (-113 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Dallas Goedert Over 42.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
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NFL player props for Monday Week 2
Bryce Young Over 189.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft is set to make his home debut on Monday Night Football for the Carolina Panthers, facing the New Orleans Saints. Young only managed to throw for 146 passing yards on 38 attempts during Week 1 against the Atlanta Falcons. The fact that he attempted 38 passes immediately grabs your attention because it shows the Panthers aren't afraid to put the ball in his hands. I hope they continue to let Young throw, both for this prop and my Beat the Bullseye pick on the Panthers at +3.5.
Young initially opened with a passing yards total of 195.5 at most of our best sports betting sites. We've seen that number move to 196.5 since then, with Pinnacle being the most aggressive in shifting it to 198.5, which is noteworthy. Then there's FanDuel, which is trading the total nine yards lower than Pinnacle and seven yards lower than most of our best sports betting apps. That discrepancy raises a red flag. it's a rogue price alert!
Young is projected to throw for 207 passing yards against the Saints on Monday Night Football. That's not a high projection, but it stands out when you find the Over trading at 189.5 (-114) via FanDuel. Based on that projection we can calculate Young's price at -171 to go Over the total, meaning this bet shows a positive expected value of 18%.
Now, let's say you bet on the Over on 196.5 (-115) via DraftKings instead. Your expected value would drop from 18% to 6%. That's why it's crucial to utilize all of our best NFL betting sites and compare the odds.
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Pick made by Jon Metler (SBR | Twitter/X)
NFL player props for Sunday Week 2
Calvin Ridley Over 5.5 receptions (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Trevor Lawrence has a new favorite target in Jacksonville this season, and that's Calvin Ridley. In his Jaguars debut in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts, Ridley had eight receptions for 101 receiving yards and a touchdown. Given his suspension for betting on sports, it's only fitting to target his player props.
In Week 2, Ridley's receiving props have been on the rise. His receiving yards total has steamed from 69.5 on the opener to 73.5, and we've observed some of our best sports betting sites increasing the juice on the Over 5.5 receptions, except for FanDuel. This is precisely why I'm focusing on Ridley's reception prop rather than his receiving yards total.
Ridley is projected to have 6.4 receptions against the Chiefs, which allows us to price the Over 5.5 receptions at -160. This is almost identical to where BetRivers has set its juice (-159) on the Over 5.5 receptions for Ridley, but FanDuel, on the other hand, is still offering -128 for the Over. That's why I'm hitting the button on this prop.
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Pick made by Jon Metler
Baker Mayfield Over 221.5 passing yards (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
It appears Neil Parker has already placed a bet on the Rachaad White rushing yards prop in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers game. By also targeting the Mayfield Over on passing yards, you can potentially create a same-game parlay for the matchup between the Buccaneers and Chicago Bears in Week 2.
The Bears allowed 245 passing yards to Jordan Love in Week 1, helping Packers fans forget about the absence of Aaron Rodgers. Maybe this week they can help Buccaneers fans erase the memory of Tom Brady?
This passing yards prop for Mayfield initially opened at 219.5 yards and is now steaming toward the Over. BetRivers has been the slowest among our best sportsbooks to adjust its total, which is why we want to capitalize on this situation. Mayfield's passing yards total has already risen to 228.5 at FanDuel, with the Over being offered at -114. FanDuel's total is seven yards higher, with almost identical juice for the Over.
When you consider the projections, it's clear why this prop is moving toward the Over. Mayfield is projected to throw for 235.4 yards, enabling us to price the Over on 221.5 passing yards at -141.
Pick made by Jon Metler
Rachaad White Over 53.5 rushing yards (-101 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
There’s all kinds of talk about White’s lack of efficiency out of the backfield for the Buccaneers, but there’s no discussion about his role diminishing. He was on the field for 79% of the offensive snaps against the Vikings in Week 1, and the tailback draws another cushy matchup against the Bears in Week 2.
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Da Bears went through bottomless bottles of Benadryl and still couldn’t fend off their run-stopping allergies in 2022. The unit was graded as the league's worst statistical rush defense in 2022, according to Pro Football Focus, and Chicago is also coming off a Soldier Field drubbing in front of its faithful fans during Week 1.
I'm conservatively projecting White for 58.6 rushing yards and would price this Over at -126. The gap adds up to an 11% positive expected value over the -101 Caesars odds based on my projections.
Pick made by Neil Parker (SBR | Twitter/X)
Christian McCaffrey Over 28.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
After averaging 42.2 receiving yards per regular-season game with the San Francisco 49ers last season, I’m anticipating McCaffrey to soar over last week’s total of 17.
I have McCaffrey projected for 35.7 receiving yards and would price this Over at -155 for a positive expected value of 16% compared to the -110 odds from bet365.
The Los Angeles Rams are ripe for a letdown showing after a road win against the Seattle Seahawks, and I also have San Francisco ranked high in my Week 2 survivor picks and as a leg in my Week 2 teaser picks.
Pick made by Neil Parker
Michael Gallup Over 34.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐
With the news that Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks (knee) isn’t expected to play against the New York Jets, I boosted my numbers for Gallup. I now have the sixth-year Cowboy projected for 39.6 receiving yards.
As a result, we’re gaining a positive expected value of 11% on the -110 bet365 odds because I would price this Over at -138 based on my projection.
Additionally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gallup’s receiving yards total climb or the vig increases as bettors reevaluate the Dallas passing attack without Cooks.
Pick made by Neil Parker
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 50.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
I’m eyeing a breakout showing from Rhamondre Stevenson against the Miami Dolphins after he played 74% of the offensive snaps and handled 12 of 20 carries out of the backfield in Week 1 for the New England Patriots.
The ‘Fins parted the sea against the San Diego Chargers last week, and the Bolt's backs zipped their way to 233 rushing yards at 5.8 per tote. Miami allowed the most EPA per rush (0.322), the highest rushing success rate (66.7%), and the team graded as the sixth-worst run defense, according to Pro Football Focus.
I'm projecting Stevenson for 60.1 rushing yards and would price this prop at -153. It checks out at a positive expected value of 16% compared to the -110 bet365 odds.
Pick made by Neil Parker
NFL player props for Thursday Week 2
Kirk Cousins Under 263.5 passing yards (-113 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Buckle up, everyone! We have Kirk Cousins in a primetime game on Thursday Night Football. Last season, when the Vikings faced the Eagles on Monday Night Football, Cousins struggled against the Eagles' secondary and threw three interceptions. While we could consider Cousins' interception prop, we're focusing on his passing yards prop because we've identified a favorable edge in these numbers, thanks to BetRivers.
This season, Cousins is expected to amass high passing yard totals. The days of Dalvin Cook's dominance in Minnesota are long gone, and the Vikings are leaning heavily on the passing attack with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
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In his recent game against the Buccaneers, Cousins was given a passing yards total of 271.5 yards, and he blitzed that number by throwing for 344 yards. Typically, when a player exceeds a total like this by such a margin, you might expect the next week's total to be higher. However, that's not the case with Cousins. In fact, most of our best sports betting apps (excluding BetRivers) have set the total at almost 10 yards lower. Even though the total has been adjusted downward this week, it hasn't moved enough.
Cousins is currently projected to pass for 250.9 yards against the Eagles, which means we can price the Under of 263.5 passing yards at -174. Surprisingly, BetRivers offers it at -113. To maximize your edge, you should be betting on this prop at BetRivers. Some of our other best sportsbooks are offering the Under on Cousins' passing yards at a total of 260.5 with comparable juice, but this would significantly reduce your expected value.
Pick made by Jon Metler
Dallas Goedert Over 42.5 receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
In Week 1, Dallas Goedert had, upon checking the notes, zero receiving yards. It might seem like a strong indicator for an Under bet when a player starts the season with zero receiving yards. However, let's dive deeper into the numbers.
There have been quotes from interviews with key figures like Johnson, quarterback Jalen Hurts, and head coach Nick Sirianni, all addressing Goedert's lack of targets against the Patriots. Johnson mentioned that the ball should have gone Goedert's way at least four to five times, and they need to get him more involved.
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The Eagles tight end himself expressed confidence, stating that he intends to start himself on his fantasy football team this week. I mean, he's seen the game plan for their upcoming matchup against the Vikings, and let's be honest, nobody enjoys losing to their friends in fantasy football.
With a projection of 51.3 receiving yards for Goedert, it suggests that it's a good time to buy the dip, and the betting market seems to agree. Goedert initially opened with a total of 38.5 receiving yards and has now risen as high as 46.5 at FanDuel. Given this projection, we can price Goedert at -125 to exceed the total of 42.5 receiving yards.
Pick made by Jon Metler
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