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NFL Best Bets Week 2: Will Aiyuk-Purdy Connection Remain a Force?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 17, 2023 2:20 PM EDT • 5 min 5 sec read.

NFL best bets
NFL best bets

It's not uncommon for sports bettors to overreact to small sample sizes, and we've examined the available markets and analyzed the NFL odds from our best sports betting apps to offer four NFL best bets for Week 2.

Week 1 of the NFL season was full of entertainment and surprises with road teams, Unders and upsets stealing the spotlight.

Road teams went 12-4 against the spread, and the Under prevailed in 12 of the 16 games. Additionally, there were eight 'upsets' as three of the AFC's top teams (Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals) in the Super Bowl odds all suffered losses. This opening slate left fans and bettors with much anticipation for Week 2.

Here are our NFL best bets to complement all our NFL picks, NFL upset picks and NFL player props for Week 2 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL best bets: Week 2

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Week 2 NFL schedule and odds

(odds via Caesars)

NFL predictions for Week 2

Brandon Aiyuk Over 57.5 receiving yards vs. Rams (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

San Francisco wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a season opener with eight receptions for a career-high 129 yards and two touchdowns. Since Brock Purdy took over as the team’s quarterback last season, Aiyuk has led the team in targets (39), receptions (30), and yards (446). 

Aiyuk has exceeded this projected total in three of his last five against the Los Angeles Rams, with receiving totals of 81, 37, 26, 69, and 107 yards in the previous five meetings. However, Aiyuk was lined up across one of the best cover cornerbacks in the league, Jalen Ramsey, for many of those snaps, and Ramsey is no longer with the team. 

There is always a chance the 49ers race out to a big lead and lean on the running game with Christian McCaffrey and Co. However, this is a confident four-star play as we expect head coach Kyle Shanahan to be aware of Purdy’s six-game streak with two or more passing touchdowns, and he needs one more to tie Billy Volek in 2003-04 with seven for the most consecutive starts with multiple passing touchdowns to begin a career since 1950. 

All sportsbooks are in unison with the Over/Under of 57.5 yards, but bet365 is the only shop not juiced to the Over, as Aiyuk’s odds to exceed the total are as high as -119 at Caesars.

Tua Tagovailoa Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+108 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa passed for 466 yards in Week 1, the fourth-most in a season opener in NFL history. In the process, he became the second quarterback in Dolphins history with 400-plus passing yards in multiple games.

Tagovailoa completed 20 of 35 passes for 334 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception against man coverage last week while compiling a 98 QBR outside the pocket. The 334 yards versus man coverage were the fourth-most in a single game over the previous five seasons, per ESPN Analytics/NFL Next Gen. However, this is the ultimate fade spot coming off a massive performance against a head coach who knows a thing or two about taking a team’s best weapon away.

Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots defense held the Philadelphia Eagles to one offensive touchdown, which is tied for the fewest in any Jalen Hurts start. Philadelphia’s 251 total yards were its fewest since 2021, and at one point, it had four consecutive three-and-outs in the first half. This is a four-star play, as the Patriots forced Hurts into a 7.1 QBR when pressured in Week 1 (ranked 22nd among all quarterbacks), and the Eagles ended the week ranked 20th in offensive efficiency. 

Several sportsbooks have plus-money odds to back the Under for this prop, but BetRivers is the only one offering better than a price of +105.

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Travis Kelce first touchdown scorer vs. Jaguars (+650 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Kansas City Chiefs offense missed tight end Travis Kelce dearly last week, and with him back at practice and looking like a go for Sunday, we expect Patrick Mahomes to get him involved early and often.

Mahomes was 10-for-22 for 135 yards, one TD, and one INT when targeting wide receivers in Week 1. And he missed Kelce’s ability to operate in the middle of the field, going 13-for-23 for 148 yards and a touchdown against zone coverage. Mahomes was off-target on 19% of his passes, and his receivers dropped 10% of his attempts. 

Since 2016, Kelce ranks second in receptions (675), second in receiving yards (8,607), and fourth in receiving touchdowns (59) among all players, so we are bypassing his steeper -145 anytime touchdown odds and expect him to be the first player to cross the goal line in what should be a high-scoring affair. 

FanDuel offers a very generous price for this wager, as all other major sportsbooks are at +500 odds or shorter, with Caesars being the lowest at +450.

Falcons ML vs. Packers (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Green Bay Packers’ start to the Jordan Love era ended much the same way as many of the games with Aaron Rodgers under center did, with a win over the Chicago Bears. We are not discrediting Love’s impressive performance, who threw for a career-high 245 yards while leading the Packers to a tie for their third-most points (40) in a season opener in franchise history. However, the Atlanta Falcons’ unique offensive attack is a matchup nightmare for the Green Bay defense.

Atlanta is eventually going to need more out of quarterback Desmond Ridder, who ranked 31st among starting quarterbacks in Week 1 in attempts (18), 28th in yards (115), and 21st in Total QBR (29). Ridder also had just one pass attempt over 12 air yards, and his 3.3 air yards per attempt was the worst in Week 1. However, Atlanta’s rushing attack is built to expose a Packers defense that ranked No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA and EPA. Chicago could not employ its running game to full effect last week after falling behind by 18 points midway through the third quarter, but we expect the Falcons to remain close enough to have that be their biggest advantage in this matchup of 1-0 teams.

Caesars is the only shop offering plus-money odds to back the Falcons, as all others are at -105 or higher.

NFL best bets made 9/15/2023 at 7:11 a.m. ET.

Kentucky bettors: Sports betting is coming soon!

Kentucky sports betting will launch Sept. 28 so get pre-launch offers before it's too late! Don't miss out on Kentucky sportsbook promos or the best Kentucky sports betting apps!

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NFL betting odds pages

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NFL Defensive Player of the Year OddsNFL Most Regular Season Rushing Yards OddsNFL Win Totals Odds
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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”