The Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Miami Dolphins are all recharging during their bye weeks in Week 10, but that leaves us without some serious star power. The three teams feature quarterbacks at the top of the oddsboard for NFL MVP, and they're hanging at the top of the Super Bowl odds.
But rarely are the best values attached to the high-profile stars anyway and we still have 14 games to hone in on for our NFL player props this week.
NFL player props for Week 10
- Brian Robinson Jr. Over 43.5 rushing yards (-119 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
- Justin Simmons Over 4.5 tackles (-140 via DraftKings) ⭐
- Rhamondre Stevenson Over 46.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
- Hayden Hurst Over 12.5 receiving yards (-120 via FanDuel)⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
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NFL player props for Week 10: Sunday
Brian Robinson Jr. Over 43.5 rushing yards (-119 via Caesars) ⭐⭐
Robinson has been the clear No. 1 back for the Washington Commanders dating back to the final weeks of 2022, and he topped this 43.5 total in consecutive games and in six of nine for the season. The Seattle Seahawks don’t run out an intimidating run defense, either.
I have Robinson projected for 54.9 rushing yards and would price this Over at -144. Compared to the -119 Caesars odds, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 9%.
The key will be Washington keeping this game competitive and not having to abandon the run in order to keep pace with Seattle. Thankfully, the Commanders have had a one-possession result in seven of nine games this season, including all five on the road.
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Rhamondre Stevenson Over 46.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
I’m anticipating some extra run for Stevenson against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, and have him pegged for 55.1 rushing yards. Indy is a tough rush defense to evaluate because while the Colts have held opposing running backs to just 3.77 yards per carry, they’ve also allowed some big runs in recent weeks with 12 rushes going for 10 or more yards over the past three games.
Stevenson is also coming off his best game of the season, which included a season-high, 64-yard rushing touchdown. All it will take for this Over to hit is another chunk gain and his usual usage out of the backfield.
I would price this prop at -139 based on my projection and it checks out with a positive expected value of 11% compared to the -110 bet365 odds.
NFL player props for Week 10: Monday Night Football
Justin Simmons Over 4.5 tackles (-140 via DraftKings) ⭐
The early player-prop lines for the Monday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills don’t offer oodles of value, but Simmons never leaves the field and should see plenty of opportunity to tick the tackles column.
The Bills rank 13th in time of possession (30:35) compared to the Broncos’ 28th-ranked 27:52, and an opposing free safety has topped this 4.5 tackle total in seven of nine Buffalo games. Additionally, the two exceptions were in Bills losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals when Buffalo lost the possession battle by a combined 74:50 to 45:10.
With the Bills set as sizable home favorites, I’m not expecting Denver to have the same fortune the Jags and Bengals did.
I have Simmons conservatively projected for 5.4 tackles and would price this Over at -153, so we’re landing a short 2% positive expected value on the -145 DraftKings odds.
Our Phil Wood is expecting more good things for Denver with his Broncos vs. Bills prediction.
NFL player props for Week 10: Thursday Night Football
Hayden Hurst Over 12.5 receiving yards (-120 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✔️
This is an outlier low total for Hurst, with the other four of our best sportsbooks listing the number at 16.5.
The Carolina Panthers turned to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown to call plays following their Week 7 bye, and Hurst has six targets across the past two games. He has also run a receiving route on 70% of his offensive snaps for the season.
This should also prove to be a soft matchup for the veteran tight end.
The Chicago Bears are allowing a healthy 7.0 yards per target and a league-high 83.3% catch rate to the position.
I have Hurst projected for 18.2 receiving yards and would price this Over at -170 for a positive expected value of 15% compared to the -120 FanDuel odds. Additionally, I'd be comfortable recommending this Over if the total moves to 13.5, especially if the vig is lower.
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