NFL Best Bets Week 8: Will Jackson Make Ravens History vs. Cardinals?
There’s a full 16-game slate in Week 8, so there are also all kinds of options for our NFL best bets. We shop for the best NFL odds from our best sports betting apps when making all our NFL picks.
The NFL's Week 7 was marked by numerous upsets and games finishing below the expected total, continuing a trend from Week 6 where the Under prevailed in 12 out of 15 games. In the past week, eight out of 13 games also ended below the projected total, with seven underdogs winning outright, highlighting the league's remarkable parity.
One of the outright upsets was in the Buffalo Bills-New England Patriots game, with New England winning as the biggest home underdog (+8.5 or +9, depending on which of our best sportsbooks you shopped at) it has been since all the way back in 2001.
Here are our NFL best bets and NFL picks for Week 8 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL best bets: Week 8
- P.J. Walker Over 197.5 passing yards vs. Seahawks (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Cardinals (-105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Christian Kirk Under 52.5 receiving yards vs. Steelers (-104 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Commanders team total Under 18.5 vs. Eagles (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Week 8 NFL schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers (pick'em)
- Atlanta Falcons (-2) vs. Tennessee Titans
- New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1)
- New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins (-9.5)
- New York Jets (-3) vs. New York Giants
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) vs. Washington Commanders
- Houston Texans (-3) vs. Carolina Panthers
- Cleveland Browns vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3)
- Kansas City Chiefs (-8) vs. Denver Broncos
- Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)
- Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5)
- Las Vegas Raiders vs. Detroit Lions (-8)
NFL predictions for Week 8
P.J. Walker Over 197.5 passing yards vs. Seahawks (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson has already been ruled out for the Week 8 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. And while many will view backup quarterback P.J. Walker as a sacrificial lamb going into Lumen Field, one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL, most would be surprised to learn that Cleveland’s offense has actually fared better without Watson.
Watson has a 42 Total QBR this season, which ranks 24th, and he has an 11:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 10 games since signing a five-year/$230-million deal in March 2022.
Over the last two seasons, Watson’s Total QBR is 41, and he has completed 60% of his passes and averaged 6.4 yards per attempt, and the Browns have averaged 21 points per game in his starts. When any other quarterback starts a game for the Browns in Watson’s tenure, they have combined for a 56 Total QBR, completed 62% of their passes, and averaged 6.7 yards per attempt, with the team scoring 21.9 points per game in that stretch.
FanDuel's line is eight yards lower than the O/U of 205.5 found at DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365, so we are making this a more confident four-star play at the lower number, whereas it would have been a three-star play at 205.5.
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Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 passing touchdowns vs. Cardinals (-105 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
The Baltimore Ravens scored touchdowns on their first four drives against the Detroit Lions last week, and quarterback Lamar Jackson posted his 17th career game with three-plus touchdowns. He is tied with Joe Flacco for the most three-touchdown games in Ravens franchise history, and he has a chance to break that mark against the porous Arizona Cardinals.
Per Fantasy Football expert Dwain McFarland, the Ravens have a plus-8% dropback rate over expectation in two of the last three games, as offensive coordinator Todd Monken seems to be unleashing the passing game that we expected when the team added Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted Zay Flowers.
Meanwhile, Arizona has lost four consecutive games by double-digits and averaged 13.8 points per game in that span. Given that Baltimore has allowed nine or fewer points in three games this season and held six of seven opponents to one or fewer touchdowns, we expect its defense to get the ball back for Jackson quickly and for the Ravens offense to dominate time of possession.
We would also not put anyone off backing Jackson’s +425 odds to throw three-plus touchdowns at bet365.
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Christian Kirk Under 52.5 receiving yards vs. Steelers (-104 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
New Orleans Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore held Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley without a target in the first half last week. However, we expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to use one of the best cover cornerbacks in the sport, Joey Porter Jr., to line up against Christian Kirk, who leads the team in targets (55), receiving yards (474), and receiving touchdowns (three).
Per PFF’s Bradley Locker, Porter has the best man coverage grade (91.1) of any cornerback with a minimum of 100 coverage snaps. He is coming off a week in which he held Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua without a catch on three targets, and Pittsburgh should pay Kirk extra attention one week after his 44-yard fourth-quarter touchdown won last week’s game.
This is a four-star play, as Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence entered last week ranked 24th in QBR vs. man coverage and was 30th or worse in yards per attempt and TD-INT ratio in that split.
Caesars is the only sportsbook charging less than -110 juice to back the Under, and the -104 odds present much better value than the -115 found at BetMGM and DraftKings for the same number.
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Commanders Under 18.5 points vs. Eagles (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Washington Commanders seem to have the recipe to beat the Philadelphia Eagles’ vaunted defense, as they scored 63 combined points against their NFC East rivals in Week 10 of last year and Week 4 this year. However, Washington hit a new low with last week’s seven-point performance against the New York Giants, as it punted the most times (10) in a game since 2020.
Commanders quarterback Sam Howell is the second quarterback ever to be sacked 40-plus times through the first seven games of a season, and the team allowed six sacks to a Giants squad that entered last week with an NFL-low five sacks through the first six games.
Now Washington faces an Eagles defense that entered Week 7 ranked seventh in pressure rate (39.2%), sixth in yards per rush allowed (3.6), and second in rushing yards per game allowed.
Philadelphia lived up to the hype in a dominant defensive performance against the Miami Dolphins, holding them to negative-eight rushing yards in the first quarter, their fewest in any quarter since 2013. In addition, Miami scored a season-low 10 points and totaled a season-low 113 yards in the first half, and its negative-seven yards rushing were the fewest in the first half of a game in the NFL since 2009.
This is a four-star play, as Philadelphia recorded a 62% pass -rush win rate last week, the second-highest against Miami in the previous two seasons (the Dolphins entered the week allowing opponents a 45% pass-rush win rate).
Caesars and BetMGM are the only shops offering an O/U of 18.5 (all others are lower at 17.5), but Caesars is our go-to shop since BetMGM has -120 odds to back the Under.
NFL best bets made 10/26/2023 at 6:49 a.m. ET.
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