Brock Purdy NFL Player Props, Odds for Thanksgiving: Predictions for 49ers vs. Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks host Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers in Thursday’s Thanksgiving finale, and we're breaking down the game with our Brock Purdy player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.
The San Francisco 49ers, boasting a 7-3 record, have been on a roll with their seventh win by a margin of 10 points or more, a feat they share with the Dallas Cowboys as the most in the NFL. In their recent victory, quarterback Purdy showcased an exceptional performance, achieving a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating - a milestone not seen for a 49ers quarterback since the legendary Joe Montana back in 1989. This remarkable display highlights the team's strength and Purdy's exceptional skill set, positioning the 49ers as a formidable force in the league.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks (6-4) are only one game behind San Francisco for first place in the NFC West. Seattle had a shot in Week 11, but kicker Jason Myers missed a game-winning 55-yard field goal in the narrow defeat to the Los Angeles Rams.
The 49ers and Seahawks clashed thrice last year, with San Francisco winning each game and outscoring Seattle 89-43.
To accompany our NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving predictions, NFL best bets for Thanksgiving, and 49ers vs. Seahawks prediction, here are our best Brock Purdy NFL player prop predictions for the 49ers vs. Seahawks Week 12 Thanksgiving matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Brock Purdy NFL player prop predictions for Thanksgiving
- Brock Purdy Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Brock Purdy Under 250.5 passing yards (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Brock Purdy Under 0.5 interceptions (-121 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
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Brock Purdy player props for Thanksgiving
Brock Purdy Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
When it rains, it typically pours for the Seahawks' pass defense, as they have allowed four quarterbacks to throw multiple touchdowns this year, and two of those quarterbacks have thrown three-plus touchdowns. However, that also means they have held opposing quarterbacks to one or fewer touchdowns in more than half of their games, and with a low projected total (43.5), we expect Purdy to have a quiet day in the touchdown department.
Though Purdy has averaged more than 11 yards per attempt in three consecutive games, the Seahawks rank in the top 11 in yards per attempt allowed. Purdy has faced two defenses (Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys) that also rank in the top 11 in that category; the Browns limited him to just one touchdown pass and a season-low 44.4% completion percentage, and though he threw four touchdowns against Dallas, he also had his second-fewest attempts (24) of the season. We expect a lot of San Francisco's offense will come from another source on the team, as discussed in our 49ers vs. Seahawks player props.
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FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering plus-money odds for the Under, and the next-closest odds are the -105 found at BetMGM and DraftKings.
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Brock Purdy Under 250.5 passing yards (+100 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Purdy has thrown for 629 yards and a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the team’s two-game winning streak and is coming off the first 300-yard and three-touchdown game in his career. And though the Seahawks have allowed four quarterbacks to throw for 300 yards this season, we expect Purdy to fall way short of that plateau.
Per Next Gen Stats, Purdy had three passing touchdowns with a career-high 210 passing yards against man coverage in Week 11. He leads the NFL with 16 passing touchdowns vs. man coverage this season, but the bad news for him is that the Seahawks play zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the league (82.7% of opponents’ dropbacks). That should limit San Francisco’s league-leading yards after the catch and, in turn, lower Purdy’s ceiling for passing yards.
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Caesars is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering plus-money odds to back the Under, while BetMGM and DraftKings charge a price of -115 for the same wager.
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Brock Purdy Under 0.5 interceptions (-121 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
San Francisco is a seven-point favorite at four of our best live betting sites (Caesars is the only one at 49ers -6.5), and road favorites of a touchdown or more on Thanksgiving are 9-0 all-time. That is significant because Purdy has a 15-0 TD-INT ratio in wins this season and a 3-5 TD-INT ratio in losses.
Purdy completed 62.5% of his passes for 549 yards while averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt and had a 5-0 TD-INT ratio in two starts against Seattle last season. Head coach Pete Carroll seems reluctant to bring pressure against Purdy given his respect for the 49ers’ speed, as the Seahawks sacked him only twice in those two starts.
Without being under duress much, we expect Purdy to make the safe and correct play often, especially against a Seahawks defense that is tied for 20th in the league with seven interceptions.
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All of our other best sportsbooks charge -125 or -130 in juice to back the Under, so the best price for Purdy to go without an interception is at BetRivers.
Brock Purdy player prop picks made 11/22/2022 at 6:33 a.m. ET.
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