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NFL best bets
NFL best bets

The NFL's Thanksgiving Day tripleheader features three NFC divisional clashes, and we're diving into our NFL player props and best bets for Thanksgiving based on the best NFL odds

Arguably, this Thanksgiving Day game holds the distinction of being the most anticipated opening in recent memory. The Detroit Lions, with an 8-2 record (their best start since 1962), dominate the NFC North, while the Green Bay Packers aim to make up ground in the division.  

In a crucial NFC East showdown, the Dallas Cowboys, favored by more than a touchdown, are set to face the Washington Commanders. Playing on their home turf, the Cowboys aim to leverage their favored status to secure a pivotal win against the Commanders in this highly anticipated battle.

A pivotal NFC West clash unfolds in the nightcap as the San Francisco 49ers face off against the Seattle Seahawks. A victory for the Seahawks would catapult them into a tie for first place in the division.  

Check out our NFL Thanksgiving coverage and Week 12 predictions, along with our NFL player props and best bets for Thanksgiving (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL best bets: Thanksgiving

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NFL Thanksgiving schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

NFL player props for Thanksgiving

Sam Howell Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-150 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Commanders quarterback Sam Howell entered last week’s game against the New York Giants leading the league in completions and ranking in the top two in passing yards per game and passing touchdowns among all quarterbacks over the prior three weeks. However, at some point, the Washington coaching staff has to start protecting its quarterback by running the football more, as Howell is the second quarterback since 1970 to be sacked 50+ times through 11 games of a season (David Carr is the other).

Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons is coming off a 2.5-sack performance, his 12th career game with two or more sacks. In addition, Dallas’s 74% Pass Rush Win Rate against the Carolina Panthers was a single-game high in the NFL this year (per Next Gen Stats), so Howell should be running for his life against a ferocious pass rush. 

This is a four-star play, as Dallas has allowed one or fewer passing touchdowns from an opposing quarterback in six of ten games this year. We would make this a more confident five-star play if we were not worried about Howell producing numbers in garbage time, as Dallas is the first team to win six of its first 10 games by 20 or more points since the 2007 New England Patriots. 

DraftKings is our go-to shop for this wager, as all of our other best sports betting apps charge -154 or higher to back the Under.

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Brandin Cooks anytime touchdown vs. Commanders (+240 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Cowboys wide receiver Brandin Cooks has come on strong lately, with touchdowns in three of the previous five games after starting the season with zero touchdowns through his first four games. It helps that Cooks has arguably the hottest quarterback in the league throwing to him, as Dak Prescott has 14 total touchdowns and two interceptions in the last four games, and he ranks second in the league in Total QBR (73.9) and PAA (points attributed by a quarterback).

Washington’s pass defense has been a sieve, ranking 30th with 258.5 yards per game allowed. The Commanders have allowed over 300 passing yards to five quarterbacks and two or more passing touchdowns to eight quarterbacks, while four have thrown for three-plus touchdowns against them. 

Cooks has a receiving touchdown in his last two home games, and his +240 anytime touchdown odds that you can get by using our FanDuel promo code are a great value, considering those odds are as low as +150 at BetRivers.

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NFL game picks for Thanksgiving

Packers +7.5 vs. Lions (-110 via DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This line is as sharp as it gets with all of our best sports betting sites in unison with a 7.5-point spread at -110 odds. Green Bay has been an overlooked team as an underdog in eight of 10 games this year, but this is the only game where it gets more than a field goal. The Packers started the year 3-0 ATS as underdogs with two outright wins but did not cover another game or win outright as ‘dogs until last week against the Los Angeles Chargers. However, we are excited to back the Packers at anything more than a touchdown in this divisional matchup, as the Lions are overvalued, given their hot start.

Detroit’s defense was disappointingly bad against the Chicago Bears, allowing 25 first downs. The Lions have been a hit-or-miss defense, as evidenced by their bottom-three DVOA variance ranking, and Green Bay’s offense is on the rise after consecutive games of 394-plus total yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers (seventh in defensive DVOA) and the Los Angeles Chargers.

With this play, we are bucking the trend that favorites of a touchdown or more on Thanksgiving have covered 17 of the previous 23 games.

49ers-Seahawks Under 43.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While the Over has cashed in San Francisco’s last four games against NFC West opponents, the 49ers and Seahawks played two defensive battles in the regular season last year, with each totaling 34 points. In addition, there is the “primetime Under factor,” as Unders in primetime games this year are 25-8 and have cashed in 69% (11 of 16) of the Thanksgiving evening games all-time.

Seattle is confident it will have Geno Smith under center, but he will be just four days removed from an arm injury that forced him to miss some time in the second half last week. In addition, the Seahawks will be without leading rusher Kenneth Walker III, which will not help an offense that ranks outside the top 20 in DVOA over the previous six weeks. 

While 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is coming off a game with a perfect passer rating and has a 6-0 TD-INT ratio while throwing for 629 yards over the last two weeks, his numbers are much worse on the road. Purdy has a 7-3 TD-INT ratio, a 64.2% completion percentage, a 97.6 passer rating, and averages 8.2 yards per attempt on the road. At home, Purdy has an 11-2 TD-INT ratio, a 76.1% completion percentage, a 132.6 passer rating, and averages 11.2 yards per attempt. 

FanDuel is the only sportsbook offering a total higher than 43, and we are grabbing the 43.5 before the number aligns with the rest of its competitors.

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NFL best bets made 11/22/2023 at 6:09 a.m. ET.

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