Upset Special: Top 3 Underdog Picks of Week 18

With the playoffs on the line, we've got many teams heavily favored in Week 18, which opens up some interesting possibilities with the underdogs. I'm eyeing two with closer lines for two of my NFL underdog picks for Week 18, and think there's at least one longshot who should be respected a bit more by the oddsmakers.

There's nothing more thrilling than bypassing the points offered to you every week on an undervalued team and heading straight for the moneyline.

With great risk comes great reward, and we will seek out those big paydays on a weekly basis here with underdog picks. This week, I'm seeing two teams that could very well be favored and one team that's simply not getting enough love.

Here's a look at my top three underdog plays of Week 18 (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

NFL Underdog Picks for Week 18

Chicago Bears (+160) vs. Minnesota VikingsLos Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders (+135)New York Jets (+800) vs. Buffalo Bills

SEE ALSO: Week 18 NFL Early Parlay Picks

Week 18 NFL Underdog Picks and Predictions

Bears (+160)

It's not that crazy. Chicago quarterback Justin Fields is trending towards a return for the Bears, which would put this offense in a fantastic spot. The Minnesota Vikings have been vulnerable on defense, but particularly on the ground where they rank 25th in DVOA. The Bears have run the ball 43.23% of the time this year, which ranks seventh in football, and they’ve been particularly fond of running it with Fields under center.

I think this ground game should win the day and I'd make this game closer to a pick 'em. Chicago's defense has allowed a robust 5.2 yards per play and, on the ground, the Bears actually have been terrible with 4.4 yards per carry against them. Considering Vikings running back Dalvin Cook stands on the other side of the field, this should be a battle in the trenches.

There are other circumstances at play here, like Bears coach Matt Nagy coaching for his job and Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins coming off the COVID list and potentially looking rusty. There are a lot of reasons to love Chicago.

Raiders (+135)

I think we’ve all learned by now that the Los Angeles Chargers are not a good football team. Even at 9-7, their wins have come against opponents that have been less than quality, their defense has really suffered and quarterback Justin Herbert has had some bad games.

Yet here we are in the last week of the season and L.A. will have an opportunity to go to the playoffs in a game against its division rival, Las Vegas. While the Chargers rank 27th in weighted DVOA and dead last against the run, the Raiders have had some stellar performances on defense and actually rank inside the top-10 against the rush.

By neutralizing Chargers back Austin Ekeler, the Raiders could make this one incredibly interesting. Raiders QB Derek Carr has had three straight bad games, but they all came against quality defenses. The Chargers do not own one, and I think Vegas can avenge its loss at home and get the win.

Jets (+800)

Crazier things have happened, right? The New York Jets almost pulled off the upset last week as a +600 underdog against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Atlanta Falcons had the lead on the Buffalo Bills as a +700 underdog for a good while.

New York managed to get its teeth into that game and come within two yards of winning despite being without its three top wideouts and several missing players on the offensive line. While QB Zach Wilson won’t get left tackle Mekhi Becton back, George Fant has proven to be a solid replacement, and he will now get to throw to the exciting Elijah Moore once again for the first time in weeks.

The Jets ran the ball incredibly well behind Michael Carter and this offensive line against the top rushing defense in the league. Meanwhile, Buffalo has been run over all season long and could be in for a tricky time aiming for home-field advantage. It's also important to note that while the Bills will be out for a win to gain home-field advantage, there’s no reason to empty the tank here with a playoff berth already locked up.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

NFL underdog picks made 1/6/2022 at 1:20 a.m. ET