2026 NFL MVP Odds: Is There Value on Lamar Jackson After NFL Top 100 Ranking?

With the start of NFL training camps a mere stone's throw away, you can hear the early roars from Lamar Jackson's biggest critics, who have already emerged from hibernation to tear down one of the best quarterbacks in league history.

The annual offseason tradition began in earnest on Monday, when the two-time MVP winner was revealed as the No. 69 player in the NFL Top 100 as voted by players entering the 2026 season. That came a few hours after an ESPN survey of executives, coaches, and scouts ranked Jackson as the fifth-best QB in the league - including one voter who left him outside the top 10.

That has once again sparked a firestorm between Jackson's defenders and detractors, even as the latest NFL MVP odds list him as the co-favorite with Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen ahead of the NFL preseason. Is the market overrating the Baltimore Ravens star, or is there value on him to quiet the noise with a third MVP trophy?

📊 NFL MVP odds: What are Lamar Jackson's MVP odds in 2026?

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

When this market first opened back in February, Jackson was actually priced as the initial favorite over Allen and Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow - who have all traded spots as the top three quarterbacks on the board across prediction market apps.

Allen jumped ahead as the heavy favorite in late February ahead of free agency before Jackson re-took the lead in March. He slotted behind both AFC adversaries as recently as June 29, though he's seen his price surge over the last few weeks ahead of training camp with the Ravens ranking in the top five by the latest Super Bowl odds.

😴 Are players, coaches sleeping on Jackson entering 2026?

Let's make something abundantly clear: there are not 68 players now or in the history of the league better than Jackson, one of 11 NFL players to win multiple MVP awards. To suggest otherwise is to hand over your football credentials at the door.

But, clearly, there's a reason his peers dropped him 67 spots following arguably the worst season of his career. After two straight seasons as the first-team All-Pro quarterback, Jackson completed just 63.6% of his attempts with a 62.7 QBR and a paltry 6-7 record as a starter - missing the playoffs for the second time in seven years as a starter, which led to the Ravens cleaning house with coach John Harbaugh out the door after 18 seasons.

It wasn't all bad for Jackson: he led the NFL in yards per completion (13.3) and was prolific in play-action, and he continued to show strides as a downfield passer even with a lackluster receiving corps and unreliable offensive line. But he struggled to stay on the field as a result of that shaky protection, and Baltimore stumbled without him.

🔮 What can we expect from Lamar Jackson in 2026?

There's no hand-waving away another season that saw Jackson miss four games and post some of the worst passing (and rushing) numbers of his career.

But you also can't dismiss the previous 2024 season - which was statistically one of the best by a quarterback of all time, despite him not winning MVP honors - for the NFL's all-time leader in passer rating (102.2) and quarterback rushing yards (6,522). And there are signs of optimism for Jackson heading into yet another brand-new situation in Year 8.

Can Jesse Minter fix the Ravens' defense?

Jackson's most daunting opponent over the last few years hasn't been an opposing defense: it's been his own. Since 2021, the Ravens have blown 12 games with a lead of seven or more points in the fourth quarter - the most in NFL history across a five-year span - while featuring a win probability of 90% or better in eight of them.

That pattern of late-game failing was clearly the biggest catalyst for Harbaugh's ouster, and it'll be the top priority to fix for incoming head coach Jesse Minter, who helmed the No. 1 scoring defense in the country for Michigan in 2023 before drawing rave reviews for his work as the Los Angeles Chargers' defensive coordinator the last two seasons.

The Ravens also added Trey Hendrickson to bolster their historically inept pass rush from a year ago, and they already have All-Pro stars in Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith to establish the spine of Minter's new defense. Baltimore doesn't need another top-ranked defense like it enjoyed under Mike Macdonald in 2023; it just needs to avoid catastrophe over the final 15 minutes to reward Jackson for his expected brilliance behind center.

How will Declan Doyle change Ravens' offense?

For all of the deserved praise for Ben Johnson spearheading the Chicago Bears' top-10 scoring offense in 2025, Doyle flew under the radar as a first-year offensive coordinator before the Ravens made him a first-time play-caller this offseason.

The 29-year-old is the youngest offensive coordinator in the league, and he's already earned a reputation as a "human computer" for his play recognition and comprehension of the fine details that often eluded the Ravens' coaching staff in 2025. While Baltimore was struggling to avoid negative plays, Doyle was helping a young Caleb Williams dramatically cut down on his sacks (68 to 24) for the NFL's least turnover-prone unit.

He also helped Williams shake off a brutal rookie season to set the franchise record in passing yards (3,942) largely on the back of play-action and an elaborate run scheme. Now he'll be able to build around Jackson - who led all qualified quarterbacks in passer rating (147.6), yards per attempt (13.2) and completion percentage over expected (+11.9%) on play-action - and Derrick Henry off another 1,600-yard season.

🏆 Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP in 2026?

Since Jackson took his first snap in 2018, it's been en vogue to throw shade at the dual-threat star for playing an unconventional style of quarterback - one that has led to the third-most wins of any quarterback across his seven years as a starter (70).

Jackson won the MVP award in two of those seven seasons (28.6%), but he's currently priced at 11% to win it again this season, which translates to roughly +800 odds using our odds converter. Even though he's listed with the favorites at Kalshi, that price still feels low to me given the MVP precedent of rewarding elite passers on elite teams: Jackson is statistically one of the most impressive QBs of all time, and the Ravens are tied for the highest NFL win total (11.5) with the second-best odds to finish with the top record in 2026.

The last time he was gifted an elite defense and a competent skill-position group around him, Jackson came one vote shy of his second unanimous MVP win of his career. So while some players and coaches are eager to write him off after one bad season, I'm buying stock in an inspired effort this year with an innovative staff that knows just how valuable he can be.