England vs. Argentina Prediction: Best World Cup Picks at Kalshi (July 14)
The soccer world will be glued to Wednesday's 2026 World Cup semifinal between England and reigning champion Argentina. With a place in the World Cup final on the line, my England vs. Argentina prediction explains why the Three Lions are destined to emerge victorious from this tense encounter.
England has a 54% win probability on prediction market apps, compared to Argentina's 46% heading into Wednesday's game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, with kickoff set for 3 p.m. ET (FOX, Telemundo, FOX One). As part of our best World Cup predictions, I also analyze why the game is going to be a low-scoring affair that'll be decided by one goal.
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⚽ England vs. Argentina predictions: Pick to win & player prop picks
See all of our experts' soccer picks for World Cup 2026.
| 💰 Best picks | 📊 Yes/no price | ⚖️ Volume (units) |
|---|---|---|
| England ML (90 minutes) | 36 cents | 1.25u -> 2.22u |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60 cents | 0.75u -> 0.5u |
📈 Who will win England vs. Argentina?
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
The next chapter of one of international soccer's most iconic and bitter rivalries will be written on Wednesday, as England and Argentina renew acquaintances in the semifinal of the 2026 World Cup.
Both sides have performed exceptionally well to get to this point, but England's steady progression since the group stage makes Thomas Tuchel's men the favorites to eliminate the 2022 World Cup winner.
Even though Argentina has proven to be a constant threat no matter the score, following comeback wins against Cape Verde and Egypt, England's composed defense and squad depth will be the difference when these two giants lock horns in Atlanta.
Score prediction: England 1, Argentina 0
💵 My best pick: No Over 2.5 goals (60 cents)
Considering that both teams will be desperate to avoid mistakes that could potentially cost them a spot in the World Cup final, expect this contest to be a defensive chess match in which England and Argentina will be risk-averse.
There's no denying that both teams have enough attacking talent to score. But at this stage of the World Cup, teams typically prioritize defense to protect against costly mistakes that could end their World Cup campaigns.
Although England and Argentina haven't kept clean sheets in the knockout rounds, we're anticipating an increased focus on defense between two teams coming off emotionally taxing quarterfinal matches.
🦶 Who will score in England vs. Argentina?
Follow all of our expert soccer analysis for World Cup 2026.
Harry Kane, F, England (39%)
The spotlight has deservedly been on Jude Bellingham after scoring a flurry of goals across the Round of 16 and the quarterfinals. His four goals have propelled him into the Golden Boot conversation.
But in a match where chances will be at a premium, expect the focus to shift back to England's talisman, Harry Kane. Kane and Bellingham are tied at six goals apiece in the Golden Boot race, two behind leaders Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi.
However, we like the Bayern Munich striker's chances of breaking the deadlock, given that he's the focal point in attack and England's designated penalty taker.
Best England vs. Argentina goal-scorer pick: Harry Kane (39%)
💰️ More World Cup predictions
Our Gary Pearson expects a different result after 90 minutes in his World Cup predictions.
🥅 Will both teams score in England vs. Argentina?
It's difficult to envision a scenario in which both teams find the back of the net in a game that's expected to be compact defensively. Although BTTS has occurred in at least the last three games for both teams, England and Argentina's attacking surges could be impacted by the limited time of rest that the two sides had before Wednesday's game.
With just three days' rest since competing in gruelling quarterfinal matches, we expect the attacking fluidity on both sides to be negatively impacted. Defenses will drop further back to compensate for tired players, while the overall rhythm of the match could also be affected.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: No (47 cents)
💡 How to trade on both teams to score (BTTS)
Our soccer expert Jeremy Vernon broke down how to handicap BTTS at the World Cup with a full history and statistical analysis of the popular prop market across more than 7,000 matches.
📺 How to watch England vs. Argentina
- Date: Wednesday, July 15
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
- TV: FOX, Telemundo
- Streaming: FOX One
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