Liverpool vs. Arsenal Prediction, Picks & Odds for Sunday's Premier League Match
Liverpool and Arsenal suffered very different Carabao Cup fates in midweek play, and I'm digging through the results around that noise to make my best Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction. With two strong defenses on the pitch, we're going to look at some Unders to target in the only game on Sunday's slate.
Arsenal are a +145 moneyline betting favorite, despite Liverpool (+187) hosting the action at Anfield. Plays gets started at 11:30 a.m. ET, and you can catch the action on Peacock or Telemundo.
Liverpool vs. Arsenal predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Under 4.5 shots on target | -138 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.36 units |
| Under 9.5 corners | -120 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.42 units |
| Under 4.5 cards | -150 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.33 units |
Picks submitted: Oct. 30 at 4 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 1.5 units | Profit if all picks win: 1.11 units
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Liverpool vs. Arsenal best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Arsenal Under 4.5 shots on target (-138 via bet365)
My projection for this one is in the mid-3s, giving us a little bit of wiggle room on the Under 4.5 SOT line (despite slightly better EV on the 3.5 line). Arsenal is missing several key playmakers up front, with Tzolis, Saka, and Madueke all set to miss the game. The Gunners look like they'll run Havertz out wide with Gyokeres up top, but honestly, that duo looked out of sync in their game against Fleetwood Town. Liverpool presents just a slightly bigger challenge.
Liverpool runs one of the league's strongest presses, with a PPDA of 9.9. While not as aggressive as Brighton's press, it's the kind of play that gave Arsenal fits earlier in the season. Despite their own major injuries, the defense continues to perform well and has given up just 3.13 SOT per game. We're taking on some breathing room from there.
Play to: Missing important offensive pieces, I'm happy to play Arsenal on the 4.5 line up to -150.
🆚 Who will win Liverpool vs. Arsenal?
Liverpool should have more sustained pressure than we usually see against Arsenal opportunities, and could certainly turn those into the better opportunities despite the Gunners' defensive structure limiting chances. Arsenal should generate few chances, but if they beat the press they'll get some decent chances on goal.
Score prediction: Liverpool 1, Arsenal 1
More Liverpool vs. Arsenal expert picks
Under 9.5 corners (-120 via bet365)
Corner markets are notoriously difficult to pin down, but with a lot of play on the Arsenal side in particular likely to have to come through the middle of the pitch (given the wide injuries), the chance for corners from blocked crosses decreases at the very least.
We could see pressure from both sides that don't necessarily result in prolonged attacks with recycles ball entries into the box and relentless wide attacks. The Gunners haven't seemily played for corners as frequently this season as they did last year, and short of chasing an early goal from the hosts, they shouldn't be chasing the set pieces again on Saturday.
Play to: I'm only going as far as -125 on this line; if you want an extra rung of protection I don't see anything wrong with Under 10.5 (-188), but I wouldn't stack both plays.
Under 4.5 cards (-150)
A couple things are in play here. First, Arsenal is dead last on the discipline table for the season, with just 10 yellow cards (and zero reds) in eight Premier League games. While Liverpool are higher (17 yellows), it's not so aggressive as to push this over the line all on its own without a big step up in bookings from Arsenal.
Andy Madley takes the whistle on Sunday, and he tends to be tight with the book. He's been the man in charge for four Prem games this year and exceeded this line only once, and he's done four non-Prem games this year and exceeded this line in only one of those as well.
With both teams expected to play a tight game, I don't see a lot of rash challenges and late fouls coming in.
Play to: I'm comfortable here to the -165 range; I'm not going down to Under 3.5 despite the attractive line.
Liverpool vs. Arsenal key stats
All stats below are for the Premier League season unless otherwise noted.
| Liverpool | Arsenal | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-3-1 | 7-0-1 |
| Home/Away Record | 1-2-1 home | 3-0-1 away |
| Recent form (all comps) | LWWWWD | WWWDWD |
| Goals for | 11 | 13 |
| xG | 12.12 | 13.89 |
| Goals against | 8 | 5 |
| xGA | 9.61 | 6.19 |
| Average possession | 53.2% | 60.8% |
Liverpool vs. Arsenal odds
Liverpool vs. Arsenal projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Liverpool vs. Arsenal; subject to change:
| Liverpool (4-2-3-1) | Arsenal (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Alisson (GK) | Raya (GK) |
| Araujo (D) | White (D) |
| Jacquet (D) | Konsa (D) |
| van Dijk (D) | Gabriel (D) |
| Kerkez (D) | Lewis-Skelly (D) |
| Gravenberch (M) | Rice (M) |
| Mac Allister (M) | Merino (M) |
| Barcola (M) | Havertz (M) |
| Wirtz (M) | Odegaard (M) |
| Gakpo (M) | Eze (M) |
| Isak (F) | Gyokeres (F) |
Liverpool vs. Arsenal injuries
Liverpool:
- Bradley (knee) - out
- Frimpong (hamstring) - out
- Szoboszlai (hamstring) - out
- Ekitike (Achilles) - out
- Munoz - out
Arsenal:
- Calafiori (knock) - doubtful
- Saliba (back) - out
- Saka (quad) - out
- Tzolis (hamstring) - out
- Madueke (ankle) - doubtful
- Dowman (red card) - suspended
How to watch Liverpool vs. Arsenal
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 1
- Kickoff: 11:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Anfield (Liverpool, England)
- TV/Streaming: Peacock, Telemundo
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