Chelsea vs. Manchester United Prediction, Picks & Odds for Saturday's Premier League Match
My Chelsea vs. Manchester United prediction breaks down a clash between two big-name squads that are floundering at the start of the Premier League season, with neither in top form. But there are plenty of ways to dig into the action: Bruno Fernandes is set to return from the bench for the visitors, and I'm looking at a total-shots market for each side.
Chelsea is a sizable -125 moneyline betting favorite on the three-way line, with even the draw (+280) shorter than struggling United (+320). Play from Stamford Bridge in London gets underway at 8:30 a.m. ET on Saturday, airing on USA Network and Telemundo.
Chelsea vs. Manchester United predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea Under 15.5 shots | -138 via bet365 | 0.75 units to profit 0.54 units |
| Manchester United Over 11.5 shots | -110 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.46 units |
Picks submitted: Oct. 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 1.25 units | Profit if all picks win: 1 units
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Chelsea vs. Manchester United best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season
Chelsea Under 15.5 shots (-138 via bet365)
Chelsea's scoring numbers are more imposing than the underlying numbers (1.29 xG/game), and those numbers haven't coming from overwhelming opponents with volume. The Blues have been threatening opponents through selective attacks rather than sustained pressure.
United (despite all of their struggles) have shown a willingness to pile up possession numbers and limit attacking sequences from the opposition. Chelsea will still create dangerous moments with Cole Palmer returning from suspension and the play of Morgan Rogers, but the loss of Joao Pedro can't be understated.
This one could of course be in trouble if United scores early and forces Chelsea forward, but they haven't exactly been the vision of offensive power.
Play to: I'm happy with this one to -150, at which point it would become a pass.
🆚 Who will win Chelsea vs. Manchester United?
United should have enough possession to lead the shot count (more on that below) and limit Chelsea. Both teams should have a few opportunities, I'm just not convinced that either side is reliable enough to take full advantage.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1, United 1
More Chelsea vs. Manchester United expert picks
Manchester United Over 11.5 shots (-110 via bet365)
United's shot selection might be questionable, but their willingness to shoot apparently isn't. With over 31 touches in the opponent's box per game, United is getting close and threatening, they're just not finishing clinically. That's okay, we don't need that. In fact, maybe best if they can keep that up.
Chelsea plays with one of the softest presses in the league, boasting a PPDA of 14.7 per Opta Analytics, which should give the visitors plenty of time on the ball to circulate possession, advance their midfielders, and establish attacks around the area. Every opportunity counts here.
I'm not even sure an early United goal would slow this down - they've been playing so poorly it's hard to imagine them being content with just one.
Play to: I'm happy with this line until -125 or so, at which point I'd look for the plus-money on Over 12.5 if it's still existing.
Chelsea vs. Manchester United key stats
All stats below are for the Premier League season unless otherwise noted.
| Chelsea | Manchester United | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 4-1-3 | 1-4-3 |
| Home/Away Record | 2-1-1 | 0-3-1 |
| Recent form (all comps) | DLWWLD | DDLDLL |
| Goals for | 17 | 10 |
| xG | 10.33 | 12.79 |
| Goals against | 15 | 13 |
| xGA | 11.37 | 11.97 |
| Average possession | 46.4% | 56.4% |
Chelsea vs. Manchester United odds
Chelsea vs. Manchester United projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Chelsea vs. Manchester United; subject to change:
| Chelsea (3-4-2-1) | Manchester United (4-2-3-1) |
|---|---|
| Penders (GK) | Lammens (GK) |
| Acheampong (D) | Yoro (D) |
| Colwill (D) | Maguire (D) |
| Hato (D) | Martinez (D) |
| Neto (M) | Dalot (D) |
| Caicedo (M) | Mainoo (M) |
| Henderson (M) | Baleba (M) |
| Palestra (M) | Amad (M) |
| Palmer (M) | Bruno Fernandes (M) |
| Rogers (M) | Cunha (M) |
| Welbeck (F) | Mbuemo (F) |
Chelsea vs. Manchester United injuries
Chelsea:
- Chavarria (undisclosed) - questionable
- Joao Pedro (thigh) - out
- Reece James (knee) - out
- Martinez (jaw) - out
- Gittens (ankle) - out
- Lacroix (hamstring) - out
United:
- Shaw (knock) - questionable
- Ugarte (knee) - out
- Sesko (shin) - out
- Rashford (hip) - doubtful
- Dorgu (hamstring) - questionable
How to watch Chelsea vs. Manchester United
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 31
- Kickoff: 8:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Stamford Bridge (London)
- TV/Streaming: USA Network, Telemundo
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