NBA Best Bets & Expert Picks Today: Basketball Predictions for Friday, Oct. 30

We went 3-2-1 for a +0.43 unit profit Thursday night in the NBA, but that's not enough. My NBA best bets today look to boost our ROI as we target two games that are recent rematches, along with a Heat team that looks to be trending upward (finally).

Our first game, Bulls vs. Celtics, tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET, and we wrap up our picks with the national TV nightcap, Lakers vs. Warriors, tipping off at 10 p.m. ET (Prime Video).

NBA best bets: Player props & ATS picks today (Oct. 30)

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.

Picks submitted: Oct. 30 at 11:33 a.m. ET. Odds subject to change.

Total wagered: 3.95 units | Max profit: 3.5 units

Best NBA bet today

Pacers vs. Heat prediction: Heat -8.5 (-103)

The Heat entered the season with the 10th-shortest NBA championship odds. However, after starting the season 0-4, they dropped to the 14th-shortest odds before upsetting the Hawks in Atlanta. Who really believed the Heat were the 14th-best team in the NBA?

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo have each been named to five or more All-Defensive teams, and the Heat have played the sixth-hardest strength of schedule, per Power Rankings Guru. The Pacers, meanwhile, will be missing 49.2 PPG in scoring from last season. This shouldn't be close.

Play to: -9.5 (-101)

More NBA picks & player props for Friday

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

Bulls vs. Celtics prediction: Bulls +15.5 (-115)

The Celtics beat the Bulls by 35 points Monday, but that result was mostly noise, not signal. Boston closed as a 14-point favorite at Circa in that game, and I don't believe that result warrants a 1.5-point shift in today's spread.

The Celtics shot 48% on 3-pointers (21 of 44), while the Bulls shot 27% (12 of 44). It's very unlikely that a 3-point disparity like that will happen again today. Also, each team committed 25 turnovers, yet the Celtics scored 39 points off those turnovers, while the Bulls scored just 17.

Don't overreact to Monday's result. This spread should be closer to 14.

Play to: +14.5 (-109)

Lakers vs. Warriors prediction: Walker Kessler Over 23.5 points + rebounds (-125)

The Warriors don't have the bodies to guard Walker Kessler, and we saw that on full display when they met in their season opener.

Draymond Green, who is 6-foot-6, was the primary defender on 7-foot-2 Kessler in that matchup, and the Lakers center finished with 26 points and nine rebounds. Kessler scored 10 points in just 5:43 with Green as his defender, and Graham Ike didn't do much better, as Kessler scored four points against him in 1:51.

With Kristaps Porzingis out, the Warriors' tallest player is 6-foot-10 Charles Bassey, who has played a total of four minutes over his last two games.

Play to: Over 24.5 (-104)