Ohio State vs. USC Prediction: Week 9 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Oct. 31)
We get our first look at what No. 2 Ohio State’s offense looks like in its first full game without injured quarterback Julian Sayin as it takes on USC in a Week 9 road matchup.
My Ohio State vs. USC prediction backs the Under in what should be a conservative game plan from the Buckeyes with an inexperienced quarterback, while the Trojans are coming off a season-worst offensive performance.
Ohio State looks to improve to 12-1 on the road in October games under head coach Ryan Day, while USC is 2-7 in its last nine games against ranked opponents.
Kickoff from Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday (NBC), and Ohio State has been bet down from the key number of -7 to -6.5.
Ohio State vs. USC picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 9 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio State -6.5 | -112 via BetMGM | 1 unit to profit 0.89 units |
| Under 51.5 | -108 via DraftKings | 1 unit to profit 0.93 units |
Picks submitted: Oct. 28 at 3:15 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: +1.82 units
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Ohio State vs. USC prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Under 51.5 (-108 via DraftKings)
To say that USC struggled offensively in its last game against Wisconsin is an understatement. The Trojans finished with just seven points, the fewest any Lincoln Riley-coached team has ever scored (the previous low was 14 points by then-No. 4 Oklahoma against No.18 Baylor in 2021). Even more concerning was USC’s -17 rushing yards, which speaks to quarterback Jayden Maiava’s lack of mobility with 14 non-sack runs all year.
Ohio State’s rushing offense is a surprising weakness averaging four yards per carry (98th). Not only has its offensive line not created many big holes for explosive runs, but USC’s run defense averages just 3.6 yards per carry allowed, and is one of the best units at limiting yards after contact. If the Buckeyes cannot take the pressure off of whoever they name as starting quarterback with a solid running game, that will make it difficult to sustain an FBS-best 10.7 yards per pass attempt.
All in all, Ryan Day would likely love to call a conservative game, as his teams are 46-1 when they attempt fewer than 30 passes.
📡 SBR Edge: USC's path to an upset
Lincoln Riley's teams are 54-0 when holding opponents under 24 points, which isn't out of the realm of possibility in this matchup with Ohio State's team total O/U at 29.5.
Ohio State is built to limit USC's passing attack
USC has a top-10 passing offense despite not consistently stretching defense with deep passes. But Ohio State’s pass defense has allowed an FBS-best 5.2 yards per attempt and just three passing touchdowns all season.
Ohio State’s defense’s ability to win on first down will go a long way in keeping USC’s scoring down. The Trojans rank in the top 14 in third-down conversion rate, while Ohio State is one of the worst defenses on third-and-short, allowing a 76% conversion rate on third down and three or less.
Overall, the Buckeyes rank fourth in scoring defense and sixth in total defense, and should follow the same blueprint that Wisconsin used to hold USC to seven points.
Play to: Under 51
Score prediction: Ohio State 28, USC 20
Live Ohio State vs. USC odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Ohio State vs. USC matchup page.
Ohio State vs. USC opening odds
- Moneyline: Ohio State -235 | USC +200
- Spread: Ohio State -7 (-105) | USC +7 (-112)
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-108) | Under 50.5 (-110)
Ohio State vs. USC weather
There is a 60% chance of rain in the forecast for Los Angeles on Saturday night, with temperatures in the low 60s.
Latest Ohio State vs. USC injuries
Ohio State:
- Ja'Kobi Jackson, Running Back - Out
- Julian Sayin, QB - Out
- Brandon Inniss, WR - Questionable
USC:
- Mark Bowman, TE - Out
- Jahkeem Stewart, DT - Questionable
- Jamaal Jarrett, DT - Questionable
- Terrell Anderson, WR - Out
- Corey Simms, WR - Out
How to watch Ohio State vs. USC: Week 9
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 31
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, Calif.)
- TV/Streaming: NBC
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