British Open Long Shots & Sleeper Picks: 3 Outright Bets Longer Than +4400
The British Open returns to Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England, from July 16-19, bringing the world's best golfers together for the final major championship of the season. Scottie Scheffler enters the week as the betting favorite after capturing last year's Claret Jug, but history has shown that long shots often thrive in challenging links conditions. With unpredictable weather, demanding shot-making, and deep outright odds across the board, this week's sleeper picks could provide outstanding betting value and give bettors a legitimate chance to cash a big-ticket winner. Let's break down my British Open long-shot & sleeper picks.
🎯 British Open long-shot picks
Here are our best long-shot golf picks for British Open based on the odds from our best golf betting sites;
| Pick | Best odds | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Burns | +4500 via FanDuel | .1 units to win 4.5 units |
| Aaron Rai | +6000 via DraftKings | .1 units to win 6 units |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | +6000 via FanDuel | .1 units to win 6 units |
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💰 Best British Open sleeper bet
Sam Burns (+4500)
Sam Burns has the game to surprise the field and capture the British Open this week at Royal Birkdale. He combines above-average driving with a reliable putter, a combination that can be especially valuable when links conditions make scoring difficult.
Burns has shown he can compete against elite fields and has the patience to manage changing weather throughout four rounds. If his approach play stays sharp and he converts his birdie opportunities, Burns has the talent to climb the leaderboard quickly and emerge as a strong value pick to lift the Claret Jug.
⛳️ Additional British Open picks
I break down my top picks in my British Open picks and predictions.
🐎 British Open dark horse picks
Aaron Rai (+6000)
Aaron Rai is an intriguing value pick to win the British Open thanks to his accuracy, consistency, and comfort on links-style courses. The Englishman thrives when precision is more important than power, making Royal Birkdale an ideal fit for his game. Rai's controlled ball flight and reliable iron play allow him to handle windy conditions while limiting costly mistakes.
If he continues to find fairways and gives himself plenty of birdie chances, Rai has the experience and confidence to contend throughout the week and pull off a memorable victory.
Alex Fitzpatrick (+6000)
Alex Fitzpatrick offers intriguing long-shot value to win the British Open with a game that suits demanding links golf. Growing up in England, he has extensive experience playing in windy conditions and understands the creativity required around firm, fast courses. Fitzpatrick has continued to develop his all-around game, showing improved ball-striking and confidence against strong fields.
If he stays patient, avoids big numbers, and takes advantage of his scoring chances, he has the talent to climb the leaderboard and emerge as one of the week's biggest surprises at Royal Birkdale.
💡 British Open odds and favorites
Our Dustin Saracini breaks down the British Open odds in his British Open odds and favorites.
🎟️ British Open ticket information
| Most Tickets | Most Handle | Biggest Liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler (9.7%) | Scottie Scheffler (15.4%) | Matt Fitzpatrick |
| Matt Fitzpatrick (7.9%) | Rory McIlroy (13.0%) | Scottie Scheffler |
| Rory McIlroy (7.4%) | Matt Fitzpatrick (11.1%) | Chris Gotterup |
💵 My betting record for golf picks
All golf picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 7, 2026.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-27 | +8.2 units ✅ | 137.55% ✅ |
| Long shots (+4500 or higher) | 1-19 | +5.7 units ✅ | 122.7% ✅ |
📜 British Open betting history
Here are the recent winners of the British Open and their early futures odds to win:
| Year | Name | Odds | Course |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Scottie Scheffler | +550 | Royal Portrush |
| 2024 | Xander Schauffele | +2500 | Royal Troon |
| 2023 | Brian Harman | +12500 | Royal Liverpool |
| 2022 | Cameron Smith | +5000 | St Andrews |
| 2021 | Collin Morikawa | +4000 | Royal St George's |
| 2020 | Canceled | NA | |
| 2019 | Shane Lowry | +6000 | Royal Portrush |
| 2018 | Francesco Molinari | +6000 | Carnoustie |
| 2017 | Jordan Spieth | +1200 | Royal Birkdale |
| 2016 | Henrik Stenson | +3000 | Royal Troon |
| 2015 | Zach Johnson | +8000 | St Andrews |
Historical golf odds via GolfOdds.com.
⛳ British Open tournament info
- When: Thursday, July 16 - Sunday, July 19
- Where: Royal Birkdale (Southport, England)
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock
- Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+700 via FanDuel)
📊 British Open full-field odds
Here are the odds to win for everyone in the British Open field:
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