NBA Summer League Champion Predictions 2026: Will Lendeborg, Warriors Win in Las Vegas?
My 2026 NBA Summer League champion predictions back Yaxel Lendeborg and the Warriors, who have a 19% win probability on prediction market apps.
I believe the market is too low on Golden State, and I'm surprised the Hawks have the highest win probability at 33%. Below, I analyze the NBA Summer League odds on Kalshi and break down why Yes contracts on the Warriors should be more expensive.
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🏆 NBA Summer League champion odds 2026
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🏀 Who will win 2026 NBA Summer League?
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
| Team | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hawks | 33% | 33¢ | 68¢ |
| Warriors | 19% | 18¢ | 85¢ |
| 76ers | 15% | 12¢ | 95¢ |
| Lakers | 13% | 16¢ | 93¢ |
| Wizards | 5% | 17¢ | 94¢ |
| Nets | 5% | 5¢ | 98¢ |
| Raptors | 5% | 2¢ | 99¢ |
| Clippers | 3% | 5¢ | 96¢ |
| Spurs | 2% | 2¢ | 99¢ |
Teams not listed have less than a 1% chance of winning outright.
Over $114,000 in volume has cleared in this market, with traders projecting the Hawks to have the highest win probability at 33%.
Atlanta is the first team to win its first three games at this year's NBA Summer League in Las Vegas. It has been led by standout performances from Kobe Johnson (30 points, seven rebounds vs. the Celtics), whose brother Jalen plays for the Hawks, and second-round pick Henri Veesaar (14 points, six rebounds vs. the Spurs) out of North Carolina.
The Warriors' 19% win probability is the second-highest in the market. Golden State has been led by Lendeborg, the 11th overall pick. The former Michigan forward recorded 21 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists in the Warriors' Las Vegas Summer League opener against the Mavericks.
The Wizards had the third-highest win probability on Tuesday afternoon at 18%. However, traders started buying No contracts on Washington after The Athletic's Josh Robbins reported that No. 1 overall pick AJ Dybantsa out of BYU would be shut down for the rest of Summer League.
The Wizards' win probability has plummeted to 5%, behind the 76ers (15%) and Lakers (13%).
🔮 NBA Summer League champion prediction
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The Hawks have played well so far and have several key players who are over 22 years old, which is a plus when trying to win Summer League games. However, they don't seem interested in playing No. 8 pick Kingston Flemings (out of Houston) heavy minutes, which limits their ceiling.
The Warriors' core of older players alongside Lendeborg creates the perfect storm to win Summer League, and at just a 19% win probability, the market is undervaluing that combination. If you'd like to buy Yes contracts on the Warriors to win outright, liquidity is low at 18¢, but I'd be comfortable paying up to 22¢ per contract.
Best prediction: Warriors win NBA Summer League (18¢)
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